Global Megatrends
The 2012 Update of Our Future World
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist
Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy
The Megatrends
1. More From Less
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put
up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.
I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- Neil Armstrong
Food
Water
1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water
1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with
inadequate capacity to develop
International Water Management Institute
World Energy Useage (Mtoe)
Energy
6,000
2009
5,000
Current Policies 2035
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Coal
Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Bioenergy
Other
renewables
Minerals
Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for
the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.
2. Going, Going
… Gone?
Going, Going… Gone?
The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will
almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the
activities of a single species.
Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.
Going, Going … Gone?
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Going, Going … Gone?
Red List
Red List Extinction
Risk Index
1 = No concern
0 = Extinct
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,
Secretariat on the Convention on Biological
Diversity,
2010
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11
Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put 
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
3. The Silk Highway
The Silk Highway
It’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)
GDP Growth Rates
20.0
15.0
India
China
Australia
OECD7
10.0
5.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-5.0
-10.0
Data source: World Bank
The Silk Highway
A Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
The Silk Highway
Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years
Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16
Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
4. Forever Young
As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands,
one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.
- Audrey Hepburn
Forever Young
The Ageing Population – Australia
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Forever Young
Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement
Source: Rice Warner
Forever Young
Diabetes and Overweight Projections
Proportion of total population
overweight
80%
70%
60%
Canada
50%
USA
40%
England
Spain
Italy
Austria
Australia
30%
France
Korea
20%
1970
1980
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
1990
2000
2010
2020
Forever Young
Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged
35,000
Sydney,
Australia
Number of Competitors
30,000
Brisbane,
Australia
25,000
Melbourne,
Australia
20,000
Edmonton,
Canada
15,000
10,000
Toronto, Canada
5,000
0
1981
Portland,
Oregon,
USA
Aalborg, Aarhus &
Herning Denmark
1985
Data Source: World Masters Association
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
5. Virtually Here
Virtually Here
The Growth of Online Retail
Online as a Percentage
of Total Retail Sales
Retail Sales Volume
2012
5.1 %
Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics
National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.
2015
10%
Virtually Here
Catch me if you can – New models of retail
Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls
Image Source: Flickr.com
Virtually Here
The Work (Live?) Anywhere City
Currently 6% of
Australian workers
telecommute, 11% in
the US and 10% in
Europe (Access
Economics).
The Australian
Government aims to
increase teleworking
to 12% of the
workforce (DCDBE).
In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement
of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.
Virtually Here
The Offshoring Trend
Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM
Virtually Here
The Offshoring Trend
In Australia they
cost $10,000 to
$20,000 per month
6. Great
Expectations
Now, I return to this young fellow.
And the communication I have got to
make is, that he has great
expectations.
- Charles Dickens
Great Expectations
Maslow’s Hierarchy
Self
Actualization Morality, creativity,
spontaneity, problem
solving, lack of
prejudice, acceptance of facts
Esteem – confidence, achievement,
respect of others, respect by others
Love and belonging – Friendships, family,
partnering
Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment,
health, property
Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking
Great Expectations
Declining Material Consumption
$35,000
$30,000
20
$25,000
19
$20,000
18
$15,000
17
Domestic Material Consumption
$10,000
Income (GDP Per Capita)
$5,000
16
$0
1980
1990
Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
2000
2008
Average GDP Per Capita for G8
Countries (excluding Russia) in
2000 USD
Material Consumption (metric
tonnes per capita)
21
Great Expectations
The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier
Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:
1985 - Journal of Consumer Research
1992 - Journal of Consumer Research
1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior
1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal
2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being
2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
2009 - Journal of Research in Personality
2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Great Expectations
Utility - A non-linear relationship
Not likely

Happiness
(utility)
More likely
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
Beers (schooners)
7
8
9
10
Great Expectations
Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package”
Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension
Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand
Basic Expectations
24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)
33% of people in urban slums
15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry
United Nations, 2012
Thank you
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Leader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientist
t +61 7 3833 5540
e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au
CSIRO FUTURES