GRA 6820
The Psychology of
Decision Making
(Harrison, Chapter 6)
The Psychology of Decision-Making
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Overview of chapter 6
• The role of personality
• Risk behavior
• Perception in decision making
• Subconscious influences
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The disciplines of decision making
Psychology
The Descriptive
approach
Mathematics
and statistics
The Normative
approach
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Information
technology and
decision support
3
Disciplinary roots of decision science
DESCRIPTIVE THEORIES
• Psychology
• Marketing
INDIVIDUAL
• Psychiatry
• Literature
• Decision science
• Economics
• Operations research
• Philosophy/logic
• Social psychology
• Organizational behavior
GROUP • Anthropology
• Sociology
• Organization theory
• Sociology
ORGANIZATION • Industrial organization
• Political science
• Sociology
SOCIETY • Anthropology
• Macroeconomics
The Psychology of Decision-Making
PRESCRIPTIVE THEORIES
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• Game theory
• Organizational behavior
• Clinical psychiatry/therapy
• Finance/economics
• Planning/strategy
• Control theory/cybernetics
• Organization design
• Team theory/economics
• Legal philosophy
• Political sciences
• Social choice
Kleindorfer, P.R., Kunreuther, H.C. and Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1993).
Decision Sciences: An integrative perspective, Cambridge.
4
Sense-making
A characteristic of humans is trying to make sense of
incomprehensible things.
Sense-making is described as…
– Structuring the unknown, but in different ways.
– Placing stimuli into some sort of framework – a “frame of reference”
that guides interpretations.
– A thinking process that uses retrospective accounts to explain
surprises.
– Reciprocal interaction of information seeking, meaning assignment
and action.
– An interpretive process needed for organizational members to
understand and share understandings about features of the
organization.
– A process in which individuals develop cognitive maps of their
environment.
Sense may be in the eye of the beholder, but beholders
vote and the majority rules.
K.E. Weick
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Factors influencing strategy
 Complexity
 Uncertainty
 Long time delays between action and reaction
 Conflicting objectives
 Multiple decision makers
We seek a rational framework to help
us sort through these issues
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Problem structure
Degree of
Structure
Operational
Performance
Operational
Management
Management
Control
Strategic
Planning
Structured
Payroll
Production
Accounts
Receivable
Budget
Management
Portfolio
Analysis
Equipment
Scheduling
Inventory
Control
Short-term
Forecasting
Site
Location
Dispatching
Maintenance
Management
Long-term
Forecasting
Mergers and
Acquisitions
Equipment
Diagnosis
Cash
Management
Budget
Preparation
Product
Planning
Unstructured
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Sense-making:
Multiple perspectives
Yields
choices of...
Influenced by individuals’
mental models
A real-world
situation of
concern
Actions to
improve the
situation
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Comparison of
descriptions with the
perceived reality
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Descriptions
of relevant
systems of
purposeful
activity
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The principle of ”bounded rationality”
”The capacity of the human mind for
formulating and solving complex problems
is very small compared to the size of those
problems whose solution is required for
objectively rational behavior in the real
world or even for a reasonable
approximation to such objectivity.”
Simon, H.A. (1957). Administrative Behavior: A study of decision making
processes in administrative organizations, 4th ed. New York: The Free Press.
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The mind of the strategist
• “Successful business strategies result not from
rigorous analysis, but from a particular state of
mind.”
• Strategy making is in essence a creative and
partly intuitive process, often disruptive of the
status quo.
• Strategists employ analysis only to stimulate the
creative process, to test the ideas that emerge, to
work out their strategic implications or to ensure
successful execution.
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The anatomy of a decision
The “rational” approach to decision making
1. Define the problem.
2. Identify the criteria.
3. Weight the criteria.
4. Generate alternatives.
5. Rate each alternative on each criterion.
6. Compute the optimal decision.
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Phases in the strategic decision
making process
INTELLIGENCE
DESIGN
CHOICE
Subject to constraints….
IMPLEMENTATION
FEEDBACK and
LEARNING
• Individual
• Organizational
• Cultural
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Problem solving constraints
• Cultural constraints
– “Cultural Iceberg”
• Organizational constraints
– Contextual variables
– Structural variables
• Individual constraints
– Cognitive
– Personality
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The cultural iceberg
Primarily in awareness
Primarily out
of awareness
fine arts literature
drama classical music popular music
folk dancing games cooking dress
notions of modesty conception of beauty
cosmology ideals governing childrearing rules of descent
relationship to animals patterns of superior subordinate relations
definition of sin courtship practices conception of justice incentives to work
notions of leadership tempo of work patterns of decision making
conception of cleanliness attitudes towards the dependent theory of disease
approaches to problem solving conception of status mobility eye behavior
roles in relation to status by age, sex, class, occupation, kinship etc..
conversational patterns in social contexts conception of past and future
definition of insanity nature of friendship ordering of time conception of “self”
patterns of visual perception preference for competition or cooperation
body language social interaction rate notions of adolescence
notions about logic and validity patterns of handling emotions facial expressions
arrangement of physical space ...AND MUCH, MUCH MORE...
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Problem solving constraints:
Organizational factors
Contextual variables
• Size
• Technology
• Environmental uncertainty
• Age
• Interdependence
Structural variables
• Differentiation
• SOP formalization
• Centralization
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• Division of labor
• Status system
• Managerial
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Constraints:
Individual factors
• Stereotypical thinking
• Self imposed constraints
• Risk of failure
• Lack of a questioning
attitude
• Memory constraints
• World-view constraints
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• Functional constraints
• Problem solving language
constraints
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A model of cognition:
The human information processing
model
Schema
DATA
ACQUISITION
DATA
PROCESSING
Task
Environment
ACTION
FEEDBACK
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OUTCOME
Biases
Assumptions:
– Judgment is plagued by random error and systematic
biases.
– Good judgment requires mental skills exceeding our
capabilities.
Capacity of the mind is small relative to the size of the problems.
Heuristics and rules of thumb are used to cope with problem
complexity.
Good news
 This allows us to deal with the real world.
Bad news
 This often leads to faulty data acquisition and processing.
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Biases in problem solving
Acquisition biases Processing biases
• Inconsistency
• Availability
• Selective perception
• Conservatism
• Frequency
• Nonlinear extrapolation
• Base rate
Information sources
• Source consistency
• Illusory correlation
– Consistent information sources
can increase confidence in
judgments, but not increase
predictive accuracy.
• Data presentation
• Framing
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• Data presentation
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Biases in problem solving
Decision
environment
Processing
heuristics
• Time pressure
• Habits/rules of thumb
• Information overload
• Anchoring and adjustment
• Distractions
• Representativeness
• Emotional stress
• Justifiability
• Social pressures
• Law of small numbers
• Regression bias
• Best guess strategy
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Biases in problem solving
Output bias
• Question format
• Scale effects
• Wishful thinking
• Illusion of control
Feedback bias
• Outcome irrelevant learning
structures
• Misperception of chance
occurrences
• Failure/success attributions
• Logical fallacies in recall
• Hindsight
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Feedback biases and learning
Mental model
Double
loop
learning
(governing variables
and relationships)
Choosing
Single loop
learning
Acting
Observing
consequences
(match/mismatch
with expectations)
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Heuristics and biases in decision
making - Summary
Availability
Selective perception
Illusory correlation
Conservatism
Law of small numbers
Regression bias
Wishful thinking
Illusion of control
Logical reconstruction
Hindsight bias
The Psychology of Decision-Making
Judgments distorted by easily recalled events
Expectations bias observations
Encourages belief that unrelated variables are correlated
Ignoring full effect of new information
Overestimating representativeness of small groups
Failure to allow for regression to the mean
Probability of desired events judged too highly
Overestimating personal control over outcomes
“Logical” reconstruction of inaccurately recalled events
Overestimation of predictability of past events
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Bias
Believing chance is
predictable
Selective perception
Anchoring and
adjustment
Seeing opportunities
incrementally
Seeking only
confirming evidence
Framing biases
Reasoning by
inappropriate
analysis
Teisberg, E.O. (1991). ”Why do good
managers choose poor strategies?”
Harvard Business School Case 9-391172.
The Psychology of Decision-Making
Escalating
commitment
irrationally
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Re-evaluate over time
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Re-evaluate over time
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
2.
3.
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Re-evaluate over time
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Use multiple perspectives
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Re-evaluate over time
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Re-evaluate over time
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Re-evaluate over time
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Use frameworks for stratgic analysis
Use multiple perspectives
Devil’s advocate
Consider improbable or unpopular assumptions
Re-evaluate over time
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Antidotes to counteract
biases
Underestimating
uncertainty
Antidote
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Mental models
• Personal theories of how things work
– The most important factors.
– The causal and correlational relationships that
link them.
• These models have different names:
– Conceptual structures
– World views
– Schema
– Cognitive maps
– Institutional models
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How do mental models affect
behavior?
Events
Sale of a new office building.
Property prices up 10% compared to last year.
Patterns
Annual new construction activity over the past 50 years.
Structure
Demand
Expected earnings
construction activity Supply
New
Demand
Mental models
Application of economic supply and demand models to
real estate market behavior.
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Reflexive loop - our
beliefs affect what data
we select next time
The ladder of inference
I take
ACTION
based on my
beliefs
I adopt
BELIEFS
about the world
I draw
CONCLUSIONS
I make
ASSUMPTIONS
based on the
meanings I add
I add
MEANING
(cultural and personal)
I select
DATA
from what I observe
Observable “data” and
EXPERIENCES
(as a video recorder might
capture)
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Skills for working with mental
models
• Becoming more aware of your own thinking
and reasoning.
 Reflection
• Inquiring into others’ thinking and reasoning.
 Inquiry
• Making your own thinking and reasoning
more visible to others.
 Advocacy
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The role of personality
•
•
•
•
Jungian personality dimensions
Jung’s psychological types
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator test
Implications for decision making
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Behavior
Orderly reason for
personal differences
Preference for…
Perceiving
Briggs
Making decisions
Jung
How and where one
uses these function
How one deals with
the world
Behavior
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Personality dimensions
Extravert/Introvert
Thinking/Feeling
Sensing/Intuition
Judgment/Perception
– Results in four basic problems solving ”styles.”
– Each style has strengths and weaknesses.
– No one style is uniquely superior.
– Typology can be related to different inquiry,
managerial and organizational styles.
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Individual cognitive style
• Provides insight into yourself and your
behavior…
– as a manager.
– as a communicator.
– as a problem solver.
• Provides a logical model of human behavior
• Empirically verified
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Jungian personality dimensions
E
I
Relate positively to outside world
Likes variety, action
Open communicator
Prefers the world of ideas
Careful with details
Dislikes sweeping statements
S
Works with known facts, rarely errs with facts
Does not look at possibilities
Likes standard solutions
T
Bases judgment on impersonal analysis and logic
Low emotionality
Has trouble dealing with others’ feelings
J
Prefers possibilities and relationships
Enjoys new problems
Reaches conclusions rapidly
F
Uses personal values in judgments
Very aware of others’ feelings
Enjoys harmony
P
Likes planned, orderly life style
Enjoys working through a schedule
The Psychology of Decision-Making
N
Flexible, spontaneous
Adapts well to change
May have trouble making decisions
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Individual benefits
• Communication
• Career choices
• Leadership style
• Team building
• Learning and teaching skills
• Problem solving
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Cognitive style – how is it measured?
• Myers-Briggs Type Indicator
• Based on the concepts of Jungian
psychology
• Time for a small test…
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Why we need each other (1)
• Feelers need Thinkers
– To examine, analyze and organize.
– To stand against opposing people, or to fire people if
necessary.
– To change, reform, or withdraw priviledges.
– To maintain policy.
• Thinkers need Feelers
–
–
–
–
To convey how others feel.
To persuade other to solve problems.
To help people understand one another’s views.
To build support for a system.
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Why we need each other (2)
• Intuitives need Sensers
–
–
–
–
–
To notice essential facts.
To point out prolems.
To offer illustrations based on experience.
To point out assets and liabilities in the here and now.
To keep track of details.
• Sensers need Intuitives
–
–
–
–
–
To see possibilities in the future.
To plan and prepare.
To develop new ideas and systems.
To solve problems creatively and ingeneously.
To maintain enthusiasm.
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Focus of the MBTI
• The sources of our energy
– The question of introversion and extroversion
• The ways we perceive reality
– Sensingly, in concrete detail, or intuitively by
appreciating hunches and possibilities
• The ways we act
– Thinking clearly and logically, or in a more subjective
way, basing decisions on personal values ahead of logic
– feeling
• Our propensity to act
– Judging and decisiveness, or keeping options open perceiving
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Myers-Briggs Type Indicator test
•
•
•
•
MBTI questionnaire
MBTI scoring sheet
MBTI calculations
Interpretation
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The perfect problem-solver
INTUITION:
Look for patterns,
inferences,
relationships
SENSE:
Collect data
with all 5 senses
FEELING:
Evaluate impact of
solution on stakeholders
inside and outside
the organization
THINKING:
Logically analyze data,
patterns, inferences to
reach conclusion
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Implications for decision making
• Data acquisition
– By Sensation or by Intuition, but not both at the same
time
• Sensation – information input through the senses.
• Intuition – acquisition by imagination, seeing the whole
of a situation, the gestalt.
• Data processing
– Decisions are reached by Thinking or Feeling
• Thinking – decision based on impersonal analyses and
analytical modes of reasoning.
• Feeling – decision based on personalistic, value
judgments.
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The process of perception –
gathering data/information
•
(S) Sensing function
(N) Intuitive function
”The reality factor”
”The sixth sense”
perceives in terms of specifics, using the
five senses
•
perceives in terms of patterns, relations
•
”sees” possibilities
•
”sees” things one-at-time, in the concrete
•
•
has a ”present” time focus; the here and
now
has a ”future” time focus; oriented to
change, innovation
•
tends to estimate or approximate factual
details
•
occupied with and attentive to facts
•
can be criticized for being ”set in ways”
•
•
sometimes cannot ”see the forest for the
trees”
can be criticized for ”having head in the
clouds”, not enjoying the present
•
sometimes ”cannot see the tree for the
forest”
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The process of judging –
coming to conclusion/rational process for closure
(T) Thinking function
(F) Feeling function
”The analytic factor”
”The bonding factor”
•
comes to conclusion using established
principles, logically attending to cause
and effect
•
comes to conclusion by an associative
process – by analogy,and comparison
with past experience
•
principal concern for ”truth” and the
wider principles involved
•
principal concern for the interpersonal
and intersubjective dimensions involved
•
values fairness highly; particularly
sensitive to injustice
•
values harmony highly; particularly
sensitive to conflict
•
has an atemporal time orientation;
appeals to reason, likes analysis
•
•
consistency and validity are important;
principles are applied impersonally
oriented to past events; appeals to what
is ”meaningful”, relies on the
psychological
•
compassion is important
values what is true
•
values what is good
•
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Attitude –
observable preference, style of interacting with the world
(J) Judging
(P) Perceiving
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
needs closure on events, relationships,
ideas
wants to finish – get things done
Values punctuality; sees time in terms of
decision
prefers advance clarity, order, structure
likes schedules and working to a plan
comes across as decisive
interested only in essentials
keys in on the conscious factors
can leap to conclusion and move into
action out of sheer urgency to come to
closure
can be stubborn or ”one track”
can be vulnerable in not considering
alternatives
The Psychology of Decision-Making
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
needs to ”hang loose” with events,
relationships, ideas
prefers openness to what may come
punctuality is not a high value; sees time in
terms of opportunity
has tolerance for ambiguity, open-endedness
prefers spontaneity, is adaptable to changes
tends to postpone decisions and action
never has enough information
keys in on the unconscious
can move into action out of sheer intensity of
perception
can be pulled in many different directions
can be vulnerable in not recognizing ”the
tragedy of the excluded possibility”
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Attitude –
orientation/direction of energy flow
(E) Extraversion
(I) Introversion
•
the outside world captures attention; life is
discovered mutually in the external forum
•
needs a public forum to sort out experience
•
tends to expand and propagate rather than
conserve; is expansive, energized by
interaction
•
the inner world is the world of most
important activity; life is discovered
interiorly and shared
•
needs time and space to process lifeexperience interiorly
•
tends to consolidate, defend; moderates
and controls personal disclosure and
interaction; energized by privacy and
intimacy
•
engages others easily; comfortable in new
groups
•
assumes free movement; can intrude on
others unawares; can make demads for
response by sheer force of presence
•
•
”if you don’t know where they are, you
haven’t been listening”
can appear withdrawn; is generally
cautious of others’ ”space”; can
stalemate a situation by silence
•
”the unexamined life isn’t worth living”
•
”the unlived life isn’t worth examining”
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Problem solving styles
• ST – represents concepts of the Industrial Revolution.
• NT – stress conceptual analyses instead of precise
quantification.
• SF and NF – define different types of qualitative
analyses.
– ST and NF are polar opposites in preferences for
information gathering and processing.
– NT and SF are two forms of qualitativeness and do not
conflict to the same extent as ST-NF types.
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Problem solving using Type preferences (1)
1. Sensing
•
•
•
•
•
What are the facts?
What exactly is the situation?
What has been done?
What am I and others doing?
How would an outsider look at this situation?
2. Intuition
•
•
•
•
•
What are the possibilities?
What other ways are there for solving this problem?
What do the data imply?
What are the implications beyond the facts?
What is this problem analogous to?
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Problem solving using Type preferences (2)
3.
Thinking
•
What are the pros and cons of each possibility?
•
What are the logical consequences of each possibility?
•
What is the cost of each?
•
What are the pleasant and unpleasant outcomes of each?
•
What is the consequence of not acting?
4.
Feeling
•
How much do I care about what I gain or lose in each
alternative?
•
What are the values involved for each possibility?
•
How will people concerned react to the outcome?
•
Who is committed to carry out the solution?
•
Will the outcome contribute to individual or group harmony?
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Problem solving using Type preferences (3)
4. Perception
•
Use at each step to ensure openness to all aspects of
the problem.
5. Judgment
•
Use to set a timetable for moving on to the next step
of the decision process.
6. Introversion
•
Use to reflect at each step along the way.
7. Extroversion
•
Use to discuss each step and to implement the
solution.
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Contributions
A knowledge of ”cognitive type”…
– Lessens friction.
– Reveals the value of differences.
– Helps to understand and appreciate the
strengths of each type.
– Lessens waste of potential.
and…
– Opposites can supplement each other in joint
undertakings.
– Pooling preferences offers best chance of
finding a solution valid for both.
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Decision traps
Russo and Schoemaker, Decision Traps 1989
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Plunging in.
Frame blindness.
Lack of frame control.
Overconfidence in your judgment.
Shortsighted shortcuts.
Shooting from the hip.
Group failure.
Fooling yourself about feedback.
Not keeping track.
Failure to audit your decision process.
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Risk behavior – A small test
Decision 1: Choose between
a. A certain gain of $240
b. A 25% chance to gain $1000, and a 75%
chance to gain nothing
Decision 2: Choose between
c. A certain loss of $750
d. A 75% chance to lose $1000, and a 25%
chance to lose nothing
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Risk behavior – A small test,
continued
Decision 2a: Choose between
e. A 25% chance to win $240, and a 75%
chance to lose $760
f. A 25% chance to win $250, and a 75%
chance to lose $750
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Holdout slides
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Risk behavior
• Tversky and Kahneman work on the effect of
framing on risk preference.
– Risk-averse concerning gains
– Risk-seeking concerning losses
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Perception in decision making
• Biases and heuristics
• Antidotes
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Definition: Problem
• A formal statement of a set of
assumptions about the world.
• The assumptions are rarely made explicit.
• Whether we see an event or situation as a
”problem” depends on our view of the
world.
– Problems do not exist independently of
the person who sees them.
– Mistaking the map for the territory.
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Factors affecting strategic decisions
About resources, core competencies and capabilities:
Uncertainty:
regarding characteristics of both the general
and the industry environments, competitors’
actions and customers’ preferences.
Complexity:
regarding the interrelated causes shaping a
firm’s environments and perceptions of the
environments.
Intra-organizational conflicts:
among people making managerial decisions
and those affected by them.
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