The Demographic Transition
Model
Links to Rostow’s Ladder of
Economic Development
(Modernization Model)
DTM: Stage I
• Low Growth stage in
which the area
experiences
incredibly high birth
and death rates
resulting in little
population growth.
• Death was the result
of plagues and
epidemics.
• Europe: Bubonic
Plague (Black Death)
Stage I Continued…
• Stage I: Subsistence
agricultural society
which produces little
food.
• Famine contributes to
the deaths
• The society resists
technological changes
due to a rigid social
structure
Stage I and Rostow
• Stage I correlates to
the first stage of
Rostow’s
Modernization Model traditional.
• In Stage I of the DTM
the people are
traditional,subsistence
agricultural societies.
• These societies resist
modernization and
technology.
DTM: Stage II
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
High-growth stage in which the area
experiences high birth and declining death
rates resulting in significant population
increase
Marked by the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution AND the 2nd Agricultural Revolution
Improved seed selection
New methods of crop rotation and technology
such as seed drill
Selective breeding of livestock
The number of people needed to farm
DECREASED
The food supply INCREASED
Sanitation facilities and modern medical
practices improved and diffused preventing
the spread of disease
Combination of improved food supply and
medical practices result in reduction of death
rate
Birth rates fell slower, thus population
explosion
Stage II continued
• Most of the world population
is trapped in Stage II of the
demographic transition.
• Limited resources and
cultural practices maintain
unnecessarily high birth
rates.
• The segments of the world
population that hold the
fewest resources have the
most rapidly growing
populations.
• India in the year 2000.
Features of the second
stage of the demographic
transition.
Stage II and Rostow
• Rostow’s stage II
(preconditions of takeoff)
and stage III (takeoff)
correlate to stage II of the
DTM.
• Governments and its
people allow the country to
diversify
• Once this takes place, the
country experiences
something like an Industrial
Revolution
• Urbanization,
industrialization,
technological
advancements and mass
production increases.
DTM: Stage III
• Moderate-growth stage : declining
birth and already low death rates
resulting in continuing population
increase at a slower rate
• Lower birth rates occurred because
of:
1. Greater urbanization, wealth, and
medical advancements
2. Migration to urban centers; large
families unneeded
3. New job opportunities for women
delay marriage and pregnancies
4. Contraceptives and accessibility
to abortions reduce births
• In the figure notice there are also fewer
births. This is stage three of the
demographic transition model. Chile
would be a good example.
Stage III and Rostow
• Stage III of the DTM
corresponds with Rostow’s
4th stage, Drive to Maturity
• Technologies diffuse
• Industrialization and
international trade
expands
• Modernization occurs
• Population grows slowly
Stage IV
• Low-growth or
stationary stage : low
birth and death rates
resulting in low rate of
growth
• Occurs in countries
where women are
most educated and
involved in the labor
force
Stage IV and Rostow
• Stage IV of the DTM
corresponds to Rostow’s
final stage of High Mass
Consumption
• Countries in this stage
will have high incomes
and widespread
production of many
goods and services
• Majority of workers enter
the service sector of the
economy