Enrollment Management
Warwick Arden, Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor
Louis Hunt, University Registrar and Vice Provost, Enrollment Management and Services
Duane Larick, Sr. Vice Provost for Academic Strategy and Resource Management
Aligning Strategic and
Enrollment Objectives
Financial Aid
Demographics
Faculty/Staff
Demand
Fiscal Environment
College Resources
Strategic
Plan
2020
Enrollment
Plan
Facilities
Technology
Support Services
2020 Enrollment Plan Goals
• Improve the quality and standing of NC State’s
academic programs
• Ensure access for North Carolinians to programs
that are unique within the UNC System, while
emphasizing competitive excellence in programs
offered by other campuses
http://upa.ncsu.edu/plan/enrl/2020-enrollment-plan
A New Enrollment Strategy
• Slower enrollment growth: 37,000 by 2020
• Stabilize undergraduate enrollment and increase
graduate enrollment
• 2020 enrollment targets:
Total Undergraduate
24,180
Total Master’s
6,070
Total Doctoral
4,060
Total DVM
390
Total Non-Degree
2,300
Photograph: Randy Faris/CORBIS
NC State Total Enrollment History
(with year-to-year changes)
Source: http://upa.ncsu.edu/univ/hist/enrollment-history
Enrollment Becoming the Key Revenue Driver:
Institutions Focused on Rightsizing Enrollment
Budgeted Enrollment Expansion
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$-
$(5,000,000)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
State Appropriations
$2,109,539
$20,116,488
$6,040,673
$9,973,723
$11,080,481
$3,948,381
$12,303,795
Receipts
$3,735,632
$4,510,172
$5,919,923
$9,503,594
$2,805,022
$8,186,121
$(4,846,407)
2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Plan
Spring 2014 Progress Report
2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Plan:
Objectives and Strategies
• Limit freshman enrollment to improve
selectivity and student success.
• Develop recruiting, orientation, and
student support programs designed
specifically for transfer students.
• Take deliberate steps to improve
graduation rates.
• Reduce barriers to intra-campus
transfers.
• Increase out-of-state and international
undergraduate enrollments.
http://upa.ncsu.edu/plan/enrl/2020-enrollment-plan
Performance-Based Funding Metrics
Core Measures
Campus-Specific Measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Freshman to sophomore retention
6-year UG graduation rate
UG degree efficiency
Bachelor’s degrees awarded to
Pell recipients
UNC-FIT composite index
Total research expenditures
6-year DR completion rates
Annual giving
STEM & health degrees (%)
UG hours attempted at graduation
10-Year UG Enrollment History
(with year-to-year changes)
Source: http://upa.ncsu.edu/ir/enrol/headcount-enrollment-reports
Fall 2013 Undergraduate Enrollment
• New student enrollment:
Met or exceeded targets for new
freshmen and external transfers
• Total student enrollment:
Approximately 385 fewer
undergraduates than projected
– Largely a result of increased
graduation numbers and
decreased time to degree
Mitigating the Enrollment Impact
• Enrollment Planning Committee
actively re-evaluated NC State’s
enrollment targets for Fall 2014
• Small increase in qualified new
freshman and transfer students
admitted for Spring 2014.
– Spring 2013: 45 new freshmen and
384 new transfers enrolled
– Spring 2014*: 66 new freshmen and
400 new transfers enrolled
*Preliminary data
New Cohorts (Fall 2009 – Fall 2013)
Total new freshmen
has decreased by
10.2% since 2009.
Total new transfers
has increased by
10.8% since 2009.
Source: http://upa.ncsu.edu/ir/enrol/headcount-enrollment-reports
Freshman Profile (Fall 2009 vs. Fall 2013)
2009
2013
Applied
18,502
21,619
% Accepted
55.4%
46.9%
Enrolled
4,637
4,165
% Enrolled
45.3%
41.1%
4.19
4.43
Top 10% Rank
41.1%
50.3%
In State Enrollment
4143
3476
% In State
89.3%
83.5%
Out of State Enrollment
424
548
% Out of State
9.1%
13.2%
International
70
141
% International
1.5%
3.4%
SAT Total (V+M)
1184
1242
SAT Verbal
572
604
SAT Math
612
639
SAT Writing
561
585
ACT Comp
25
28
HS GPA
Source: http://upa.ncsu.edu/sites/upa.ncsu.edu/files/PDF/freshman_profile_2013.pdf
2009 vs. 2013 NFR* Cohort
Total SAT Change
*NFR = New Freshman
Graduation Rates by NFR Cohorts
Total SAT Ranges
Graduation Rates by NFR Cohorts
First Term TGPA
1999 to 2007 NFR Cohorts
Six Year Graduation Rate
100%
Six Year Graduation Rate
90%
29
30
30
28
27
28
27
28
25
71
70
70
72
73
72
73
72
75
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: http://www2.acs.ncsu.edu/UPA/internaldata/retention/atr_cens2011_total.htm,
EMAS: 2005, 2006, and 2007
“ Improvement is not
compulsory […] neither
is survival.”
“ Defects are not free […]
Somebody makes them,
and gets paid for making
them.”
Professor W. Edwards Deming
2007 New Freshmen Cohort
Students that did not enroll for Fall 2008 by College and First Year GPA
First Year GPA
CALS
3.001 and above
23
4
22
2.001 - 3.000
16
3
1.001 - 2.000
12
1
0.001 - 1.000
CED CHASS CNR
COE
DN
3
16
2
14
3
4
9
0 GPA
5
NO GPA WITHDRAWN
1
Grand Total
66
DUAP MGMT PAMS
TEX
Grand
Total
27
13
5
6
121
22
15
8
2
3
86
3
24
20
3
1
4
72
5
3
26
11
1
2
57
2
1
6
3
2
19
1
1
1
4
7
1
1
2
19
9
48
14
98
83
26
13
15
374
2
2007 NFR: Did Not Graduate
• 2007 cohort size: 4,791 students
• 1,198 (25%) did not graduate from NC State
– 681 had a GPA above 2.0 when they left NC State
– 250 enrolled at an NC community college after leaving NC State
– 250 enrolled at UNC system school after leaving NC State
– 384 were last enrolled at NC State (37% have TGPA < 2.0)
– Only found 387 who graduated with any degree w/in 6 years
2009 NFR: Retention Data
• 2009 cohort size: 4,637 students
• 562 (12%) had their first semester GPA under 2.0
– 198 (35.2%) of these did not return in the next four fall semesters
• 510 (10.9%) had their first year GPA under 2.0
– 224 (43.9%) of these did not return in the next four fall semesters
• 298 (6.4%) were suspended at the end of Spring 2010
– 133 (44.6%) of these did not return in the next four fall semesters.
2020 UG Enrollment Plan: Next Steps
• Maintain freshman and transfer enrollment trajectories.
• Continue recruitment and yield efforts with additional
emphasis on enhancing diversity.
• Continue to promote existing programmatic efforts to
support student success.
• Increase utilization of existing early warning systems and
develop new monitoring efforts, as appropriate.
• Develop consistent and effective intervention programs
for students experiencing difficulty in transition.
• Continue to develop CODA and new internal transfer
strategies.
2020 Graduate Enrollment Plan
Spring 2014 Progress Report
2020 Graduate Enrollment Plan
Goal:
• Increase graduate enrollment as long as
there is sufficient demand that we can
meet with resources adequate to sustain
the quality of education
Key strategies:
• Set ambitious doctoral enrollment targets
• Build professional master’s programs that
provide career development opportunities
Why Focus on Doctoral Growth?
• As a one of two UNC Very High Research Activity
universities, expansion of graduate education –
particularly doctoral education – is our highest priority for
enrollment growth
– Doctoral graduate students provide
the intellectual input and activities
essential to advance research.
– When graduate students complete
their training, they are the work
force of tomorrow and help recruit
the next generation of scholars.
Graduate Enrollment by Classification
2001-2013
Graduate Enrollment by Status
2003-2013
Counts by Status
7000
6000
New
5000
Continuing
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fall Term
Graduate Student Support Type
Types of Funding through NC State
FY 2010-2013, Fall 2013
Doctoral Students Supported by NC State
Fall 2009-2013
90%
80%
70%
% of all graduate
students supported by
NC State
60%
50%
40%
% of all full time
doctoral students
supported by NC State
30%
20%
10%
0%
Fall 2009
Fall 2010
Fall 2011
Fall 2012
Fall 2013
7,324
2,142
1,817
39.32%
84.83%
7,909
2,321
1,942
38.51%
83.67%
8,416
2,529
2,072
37.60%
81.93%
8,437
2,601
2,207
38.82%
84.85%
8,365
2,616
2,177
38.53%
83.22%
Total graduate students
Total full-time doctoral students
Full-time doctoral students supported
% graduate students supported
% full time doctoral students supported
Fall 2013 Graduate Enrollment
• New graduate student enrollment (on-campus):
– On target for new master’s enrollment (1,636 actual; 1,610 target)
– Below target (-75) for new doctoral students (537 actual; 612 target)
• Total graduate student enrollment (on-campus):
– Below target (-263) for total master’s enrollment (3,545 actual; 3,808
target)
– On target for total doctoral enrollment (3,112 actual; 3,116 target).
Since we’ve missed new enrollment targets two years in a row, we don’t
anticipate being able to maintain total enrollment w/o attention
• DE enrollment for degree seeking graduate students:
– Above target (1,677 actual; 1,518 target)
Mitigating the Enrollment Impact
• Enrollment Planning Committee actively re-evaluated
NC State’s enrollment targets for Fall 2014
• We strongly urged graduate programs to consider
Spring 2014 admission of any qualified masters or
doctoral applicants
– Spring 2013: 519 new graduate students
(375 masters, 77 doctoral, 67 certificates)
– Spring 2014*: 531 new graduate students
(413 masters, 69 doctoral, 49 certificates)
• 2014 Doctoral Recruitment Plan
*Preliminary data
Fall 2014 Enrollment Planning
Target
Fall 2013
Census
Fall 2013
Δ
Orig. Target
Fall 2014
Rev. Target
Fall 2014
New Master's-OC
1,610
1,636
26
1,638
1,711
New Master's DE
478
400
(78)
497
427
Total New Master's
2,088
2,036
(52)
2,135
2,138
Total Master's
5,151
5,001
(150)
5,159
5,058
New PhD, EdD-OC
612
537
(75)
641
664
New PhD, EdD-DE
20
2
(18)
20
0
Total New PhD, EdD
632
539
(93)
661
664
Total PhD, EdD
3,196
3,191
(5)
3,251
3,309
Degree Seeking Total
8,347
8,192
(155)
8,410
8,367
Class
2014 Doctoral Recruitment Plan
• One-time funding model targeting doctoral enrollment in
programs that indicated they can meet the following
criteria:
– Capacity for Fall 2014 doctoral enrollment growth (faculty,
space, etc.)
– Capacity to provide research funding to convert all additional
new Fall 2014 students to external (non-state supported)
funding in year two and beyond
2014 Doctoral Recruitment Plan
• These one-time recruiting stipends are being offered
based on the following funding model:
– Funding will only be provided if the program actually
accomplishes an increase in enrollment of new doctoral students
– Students will be appointed on a one-year RA paid from state
appropriated funding provided from the Provost’s Office
– Stipend levels will be "competitive" to attract students
– GSSP coverage (first year) is included
– Students will be expected to be exposed (lab rotations, etc.) to
faculty with active research programs to maximize the likelihood
of external funding support for year two and beyond
2014 Doctoral Recruitment Plan
• Financials
– Goal: Increase new doctoral enrollment
by a minimum of 55 students
– Initial cost (2014-15) will be ~$2.5M
($1.5M salary/benefits + $1.0M GSSP)
– Potential to generate ~$1.76M in
enrollment funding annually
– Doctoral students will register as fulltime for up to 4 years, generating
~$7M total in enrollment funding.
Future Plans to 2020 and Beyond
• GSSP re-design
– Prioritize doctoral enrollment
– Enhance sustainability (i.e. increase as enrollment increases)
• Increase number and level of doctoral stipends available
– Currently not competitive with peers
– Eliminate reversion of state funded assistantships
– Incentivize inclusion of doctoral stipends in grant proposals
– Continue Doctoral Recruitment Plan and expand to 75 (2015)
and 100 (2016 and beyond)
– Make Doctoral Student support a Campaign Priority
»
Chancellor’s Fellowship
Wrap-up and Discussion