Census data for Indigenous policy and
planning
Census: beyond the count
March 2-4, 2011
Dr Nicholas Biddle
Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research
Australian National University
nicholas.biddle@anu.edu.au
Research questions
1. Where do Indigenous Australians live?
2. Where are Indigenous Australians moving from
and to?
3. What is the geographic distribution of Indigenous
advantage/disadvantage
4. What will the Indigenous population look like in
the next 5-25 years demographically and
geographically
Dr. Nicholas Biddle, CAEPR
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Research question 1
• Where do Indigenous Australians live?
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Research question 1
• Where do Indigenous Australians live?
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Research question 1
• Where do Indigenous Australians live?
1
0.9
Share of Indigenous population
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Indigenous distribution - Australia
0.3
Indigenous distribution - Large urban centres
0.2
Perfect equality
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Share of total population (ranked by SEIFA advantage/disadvantage index)
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Research question 1
• Where do Indigenous Australians live?
• Information gaps:
• Large undercount, concentrated in particular parts of the country
– Indigenous Enumeration Strategy and improved PES
• Effect of socioeconomic concentration on individual outcomes
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Research question 2
• Where are Indigenous Australians moving from and to?
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Research question 2
• Where are Indigenous Australians moving from and to?
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Research question 2
• Where are Indigenous Australians moving from and to?
900
Indigenous male
800
Indigenous female
Net urban migration
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Age in 2006
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Research question 2
• Where are Indigenous Australians moving from and to?
• Information gaps
• Small area estimates based on Indigenous geography
• Motivation for moving
• Frequency of moves within a five year period
• Affect of moving on Individual outcomes
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Research question 3
• What is the geographic distribution of Indigenous
advantage/disadvantage?
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Research question 3
• What is the geographic distribution of Indigenous
advantage/disadvantage?
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Research question 3
• What is the geographic distribution of Indigenous
advantage/disadvantage?
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Research question 3
• What is the geographic distribution of Indigenous
advantage/disadvantage?
• Also looked at:
• Change in socioeconomic distribution
• Relative distribution between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians
• Information gaps
• Change in socioeconomic outcomes controlling for migration
• Indigenous specific notions of wellbeing incorporated into geographic index
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Research question 4
• What will the Indigenous population look like?
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Research question 4
• What will the Indigenous population look like?
1,000,000
5
900,000
4.5
Projected population
Indigenous share
800,000
4
700,000
3.5
600,000
3
500,000
2.5
400,000
2
300,000
1.5
200,000
1
100,000
0.5
0
Projected share of total population (%)
Indigenous population
0
2006
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2016
Year
2021
2026
2031
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Research question 4
• What will the Indigenous population look like?
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Research question 4
• What will the Indigenous population look like?
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Research question 4
• What will the Indigenous population look like?
• Information gaps
• Demographic parameters (fertility/mortality) at a small area level
• Relationship between demographic parameters
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http://www.anu.edu.au/caepr/population.php
nicholas.biddle@anu.edu.au
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