Theories of Change
John Young
A Theory of Change is…
An ongoing process of reflection on how
change happens, and the role we can play:
• locates a programme or project within a wider
analysis of how change comes about;
• draws on external learning about development.
• articulates our understanding of change - but also
challenges us to explore it further.
• acknowledges the complexity of change: the wider systems
and actors that influence it
• often presented in diagrammatic form with an
accompanying narrative summary
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Comic Relief, 2011
A bit like (a proper) log frame
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Goal
Indicator
MoV
Purpose
Indicator
MoV
Assumptions/Risks
Output 1
Indicator
MoV
Assumptions/Risks
Output 2
Indicator
MoV
Output 3
Indicator
MoV
Output 4
Indicator
MoV
√
√
Types
• Causal Chain - succession of
elements with logical links (eg logframe approach)
• Dimensions of influence overlapping domains which
interact, where it is possible to
influence (eg RAPID CEL
Framework)
• Actor-centred theories - where the
behaviour of actors can be
influenced (eg Outcome Mapping)
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How to do it
1. Identify what want to achieve.
2. Identify the people / organisations / processes are
involved and how they influence change.
3. Map them.
4. Identify how you can influence them.
5. Identify which options will provide most value for
money.
6. Decide what to monitor to see if you are on track.
7. Identify the resources and management processes
do you need.
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RAPID Outcome Mapping Approach
Start by defining
your policy
objectives –
constantly review
them during the
process
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www.theoryofchange.org
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www.theoryofchange.org
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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation
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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation
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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation
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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation
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Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation
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DFID Research & Evidence Division
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Resources
•
Comic Relief Theory of Change Review 2011 - http://dmeforpeace.org/sites/default/
files/James_ToC.pdf
•
A Guide to monitoring and evaluating policy influence. Harry Jones. ODI Background
Note 2011- http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/
details.asp?id=5252&title=monitoring-evaluation-me-policy-influence
•
Research to Action listing of resources on Theories of Change:
http://www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/
•
Keystone Accountabilities Guide to Developing a Theory of Change:
http://www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/
•
Key questions to ask when putting together a Theory of Change for Research Uptake
by Andrew Clappison: http://
www.researchtoaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Key-questions-to-ask-whenputting-together-a-Theory-of-Change-for-Research-Uptake-by-Andrew-Clappison.pdf
•
DFID Guide to Managing the Inception Phase of Research Programme Consortia http://www.dfid.gov.uk/R4D/PDF/Publications/
RPC_Inception_Guidance.pdf
•
Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Theory of Change http://www.espa.ac.uk/sites/all/modules/pubdlcnt/pubdlcnt.php?file=http://www.esp
a.ac.uk/files/espa/ESPA-Theory-of-Change.pdf&nid=37183
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Any questions?