ACERA
Projects and progress
Outlook 2011
Mark Burgman
Who we are
UCRIVERSIDE
Past topics
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Spatial analysis
Expert judgement
Disease freedom
When to declare eradication
Where should we search?
Stakeholder mapping
Consequences
Effective inspection
County
South Jutland 9.13
Other county
90.9
Bayes nets
Herd status
Infected
1.00
Uninfected 99.0
(Tony Martin,
Greg Hood)
Age_class
Adult
20.2
Grower 79.8
Animal status
Infected
.050
Uninfected 99.9
Serology
Positive
.048
Negative
100
Sampling scheme
Targeted
0
Representative
100
Herd type
Breeder
48.7
Slaughter 51.3
Maxent
(Jane Elith, Michael Kearney,
John Leathwick)
Cost-effectiveness
analysis
(Cindy Hauser, Mick McCarthy,
Hugh Possingham, Tracy Rout,
Susie Hester, Oscar Cacho)
What’s next?
ACERA II
1. ACERA 1001 Effective inspection (risk-return)
2. ACERA 1002 Estimating consequences
3. ACERA 1003 Biosecurity intelligence
4. ACERA 1004 Post-border surveillance and decisionmaking
5. ACERA 1005 Training
6. ACERA 1006 Pathway analysis
Biosecurity Intelligence
Mike Nunn, Mark Burgman, Aidan Lyon, Geoff Grossel
Peter Black, Michael Cole, Stephen Dempsey, Ingo Ernst, Brett Evans, Mark
Gibbs, Neil Grant, Mikael Hirsch, Claire Murray, Paul Pheloung, Belinda
Wright
1. Intelligence Software
2. Professional Networks
3. Foresight
Biosecurity Intelligence
1. Intelligence Software
Google Flu Trends
GPHIN
ProMED
HealthMap
EpiSPIDER
WDIN
BioCaster
NAPIS
Geographic bias, taxonomic bias, original language,
first reports, delays, unique reports, sources
(including use of social media), user input
BioCaster Work Flow
Yahoo Pipes, Python, Marine pests and diseases (Grossel, Lyon)
Biosecurity Intelligence
2. Professional networks
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EMPLAN AI List
Plant list
Marine list
Pip Pattison, Eric Quintane
Biosecurity Intelligence
3. Foresight