Chapter 5
Public Opinion

Public opinion is important in US
 Opinions about a given government policy
can change over time, often dramatically
 Public opinion places boundaries on
allowable types of public policies
 Citizens often provide opinions on which
they have no expertise
 Governments tend to respond to public
opinion
 The government sometimes does not do
what people want
Public Opinion and
Models of Democracy
Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
 Not a powerful research tool until
computers invented in 1950s
 Founders built public opinion into
structure of government by allowing
direct election of representatives to
the House and apportioning
representation there by population

Sampling a Few,
Predicting to Everyone

Statistical theory of sampling holds that a
sample of a population selected by chance is
representative of that population

Three factors affect accuracy of sample:
 Must be chosen randomly
 Larger samples more accurate
 Greater variation in population means
greater chance for differences in ability to
predict
Accurate Polling

Most national opinion polling
organizations poll 1,500 individuals
 Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of
the time
 Even this small margin of error can mean
incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased
question wording or superficial responses
 Look at current polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com

Public Opinion and
Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds
government should do what a majority of
the people want
 Around 70% of Americans think majority
opinion should have a great deal of
influence on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes
democracy requires free expression of
opinions by minority groups
 Public as a whole rarely demonstrates
clear, consistent opinions
Public Opinion and
Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under
majoritarian model
 Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do
not always reflect public opinion
 Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against
majority opinion


Majoritarian model assumes clear,
consistent public opinion about public
policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and
ambivalent about specific issues
Gallup Poll
Accuracy
The Distribution of Public
Opinion
To understand and act on public
opinion, government must understand
how it is distributed
 Distribution of public opinion falls into
three patterns:

 Skewed
 Bimodal
 Normal
Figure 5.2
Three Distributions of Opinion
Distribution Models
for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results
depends on mode, or most frequent
response
 Skewed distributions have most
respondents with one opinion
 Bimodal distributions have two answers
chosen with about equal frequency
 Normal distributions are bell-shaped along
a continuum, requiring a moderate
approach to policymaking
Stability of the Distribution

Stable distributions have little change
over time
 When same question produces different
responses over time, public opinion has
shifted
 When different questions on same issue
produce similar results, underlying
attitudes stable
Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been
skewed towards conservatism
 Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and
fewer moderates
Changes in subgroups, such as college
students, may not be reflected in general
population
 Opinions about controversial issues can
change dramatically over time

Figure 5.3
Are Students More Conservative
Than Their Parents?
Political Socialization
Values acquired through political
socialization
 Most people exposed to same
sources of influence, or agents of
socialization

 Family
 School
 Community
 Peers
 The media
The Agents of Early
Socialization

Fundamental principles of early
learning:
 The primacy principle
 The structuring principle

The extent of any socializing agent
depends on our exposure to it,
communication with it, and receptivity
to it
Family and School

Important agent of socialization, because
most people learn first from family
 Learn wide range of values
 If parents interested, learn to be politically
interested and informed
 If both parents identify with one political
party, kids tend to also identify with it

Religion stronger socialization than party
because of regular activities
School

Some believe schools have equal or
greater influence on political learning as
parents
 Elementary schools teach kids about
nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of
group behavior, and democratic decision
making
 In high school, kids learn to distinguish
between political leaders and political
institutions, about being a “good citizen,”
and an awareness of the political process
 College courses may teach students to
question dominant political values and
stimulate critical thinking
Community and Peers

Community makeup determines how
political opinions of members formed
 Homogeneous communities exert strong
pressures to conform

Peer groups sometimes can provide
defense against community pressures
 Adolescent and college peer groups
against parental opinion
Continuing Socialization
Political socialization a lifelong
process
 Adults rely more on peer groups and
the media for political information
 Adults gain perspective on
government as they grow older

Social Groups and Political
Values

Each person’s political socialization
unique
 However, people with similar backgrounds
tend to have similar political opinions

Questions from the 2008 National
Election Study (ANES) about abortion
and the government guaranteeing
employment good illustration
 Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org
Figure 5.4
How Groups Differ on Two
Questions of Order and Equality
Education

Education increases awareness and
understanding of political issues
 With regard to abortion, collegeeducated individuals tend to choose
personal freedom over social order
 With regard to government programs to
reduce income inequality, those with
more education tend to choose personal
freedom over equality
Income

Most Americans consider themselves
to be “middle class”
 Wealth linked to opinions favoring a
limited government role in promoting
equality, somewhat less with order
 Groups with more income and higher
education value freedom
Region

Historically, regional differences in
political opinion important
 Fed by differences in wealth
Today, those in the South and
Northwest more likely to favor
restricting abortion
 Those in the Northeast and West
more supportive of government
programs for income equalization

Race and Ethnicity

Historically, those of different races
and ethnicities have tended to differ in
their political values
 Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s
tended to favor Democratic party
 African-Americans initially Republican,
but later Democratic
 Today, minorities tend to have similar
attitudes on equality issues
Religion

Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable
since 1940s
 Today, population 56% Protestant
(conservative), 22% Catholic (moderate),
13% profess no religion, and less than 2%
Jewish (Liberal)

Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes
about social order
 Look at attitudes about abortion, death
penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research,
human cloning, and the teaching of
evolution or creationism
Gender

Men and women differ on many social
and political issues
 Look at abortion, affirmative action,
government spending on social
programs, death penalty, and going to
war

“Gender gap” means women tend to
favor Democrats
The Degree of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion

Some believe terms liberal and
conservative no longer adequate
 However, political analysis requires
categories

Most people don’t think of themselves
in ideological terms
The Quality of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
Differences in liberals and conservatives
used to be based on opinions about the
role of government
 Today, liberals associated with change
and conservatives with tradition

 Liberals more likely to trade freedom for
equality
 Conservatives more likely to trade freedom
for order
Ideological Types in The
U.S.
People’s preferences for government
action depend on what the action
targets
 Poll respondents do not always
categorize themselves the same way
their responses do
 Ideological tendencies reflect
differences between different social
groups

Figure 5.5
Respondents Classified by Ideological
Tendencies
Forming Political Opinions

Studies show at least half of Americans
knowledgeable about government and
politics
 Some groups much less knowledgeable
 No ideological distinctions
 Are we politically ignorant?

Most people know if a policy will directly
help or hurt them
 Self-interest principle
 Some use decision making “short cuts”
Political Leadership
Public opinion on specific issues
affected by public perception of
political leaders
 Politicians make arguments based on
shared ideology and self-interest

 Issue framing or “spin”

Politicians’ ability to influence public
opinion enhanced by growth of
broadcast media