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Public Opinion
What is Public Opinion?
• Citizens’ attitudes about political issues,
leaders, institutions, and events
• May be understood on two levels
– Individual – What one person thinks about
issues, leaders, institutions, and events
– Aggregate – The accumulation of these
individual expressions as expressed in polls,
votes, town meetings, protests, etc.
• Preferences, beliefs, and choices matter
Preferences, Beliefs,
and Choices
• Preferences are shaped by economic
self-interest and social or moral values;
some preferences may be held more firmly
than others.
• Beliefs reflect how people understand the
world and the consequences of actions.
• The choices presented to us do not
always yield a clear measure of our
preferences or beliefs.
Variety of Opinion
• Americans do hold common opinions on
some issues, like the legitimacy of the
Constitution, but on most things the public
does not hold a single view
• What we’re interested in knowing:
– Evaluations of individuals and institutions
– Assessments of public policies
– Assessments of current circumstances
– Political orientations
Clicker Question
We can expect that public opinion will vary
significantly over time on each of the
following EXCEPT
A. the president.
B. environmental regulation.
C. equality of opportunity.
D. trust in government.
Origins and Nature of Opinion
• Individual opinions are a products of one’s
personality, social characteristics, and
interests.
• Opinions are also shaped by institutional,
political, and governmental forces that
make it more likely we’ll hold some belief
and less likely we’ll hold others.
Self-Interest, Values and
Identities
• Economic interests – Government policies
directly affect Americans’ financial wellbeing in a variety of ways
• Values – Our philosophies about morality
and justice impact our opinions and may
even contradict our economic interests
• Identities – Our race, religion, geographic
origin, language, and partisan
identification impact our opinions
Social Origins of Preferences
• Preferences are developed through social
lives – upbringing, schooling, religion, and
experiences with coworkers and friends
• This is called political socialization – The
induction of individuals into the political
culture; the process of learning the
underlying beliefs and values on which the
political system is based
Agents of Socialization
• The social institutions, including families
and schools, that help shape individuals’
basic political beliefs and values
• Important agents of socialization:
– Family
– Education
– Social Groups
– Political Conditions
Agents of Socialization:
Family
• Most people acquire their initial orientation
to politics from their family
• Parents don’t necessarily teach their kids
about politics but kids absorb the political
conversations around them and often the
political orientation that comes with it
Is your partisan affiliation the same as your
parents’?
A.Yes
B. No
Agents of Socialization:
Education
• Some values (liberty, equality, and
democracy for instance) are impressed on
students continuously throughout their
education
• But higher levels of educational attainment
are associated with changes in political
beliefs
Education and Public Opinion
Do you think higher education has a
liberalizing effect?
A. Yes
B. No
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/154822
/college-know-it-all-hippies
Agents of Socialization:
Social Groups
• We all belong to groups
– Some are voluntary, like political parties,
unions, and occupational groups
– Some are involuntary, like race and gender
• Groups are another source of divergent
preferences
• Some of these preferences are based on
self-interest but most are not
Disagreement Among Blacks
and Whites
Changing Partisan Division in
the Latino Community
Religious Groups and
Same-Sex Marriage
The Gender Gap
• A distinctive pattern of voting behavior
reflecting the differences in views between
women and men
• The gender gap has been an enduring
feature of American elections for some
time now, with women consistently voting
more Democratic and men voting more
Republican
Gender Gap on War and
Peace
Agents of Socialization:
Political Conditions
• The conditions under which individuals
and groups come of political age also
shape political orientation
• Similarly, the views of individuals and
groups change as the political conditions
change
Political Ideology
• The set of underlying orientations, ideas,
and beliefs through which people
understand and interpret politics
• Most people describe their ideology as
liberal or conservative
Conservatives and Liberals
Conservatives
• Support the social and
economic status quo
• Suspicious of efforts to
introduce new political
formulas and economic
arrangements
• Believe that a large and
powerful government poses
a threat to citizens’
freedoms
Liberals
• Support political and social
reform
• Extensive government
intervention in the economy
• Expansion of federal social
services
• More vigorous efforts on
behalf of the poor,
minorities, and women
• Greater concern for
consumers and the
environment
Public Opinion and Political
Knowledge
• Few Americans devote sufficient time,
energy, or attention to politics to really
understand all the issues
• The costs of gathering information may be
high and the benefits may be low
• We can think of examples, however,
where low levels of political information
can be harmful to groups of people
Shaping Opinion:
Government and Politicians
• All governments attempt to influence
citizens’ beliefs but their efforts are
counteracted by interest groups, media,
and politicians opposed to those in power
• Presidents have been actively “going
public” for decades now to influence how
the public perceives their policy initiatives
• They are not always successful, however
Shaping Opinion: Private
Groups
• Following the rationality principle, groups
and individuals seek to influence latent,
unorganized individuals to support their
cause
• Groups and individuals with more money,
institutional support, and skill will have
more success
Shaping Opinion: Media
• The mass media are the conduits through
which most politically relevant information
flows to the public
• Traditional media sources – newspapers,
radio, and television – are supplemented
today by the Internet and social media
• We learn from the media actively –
seeking out news – and passively –
absorbing news through entertainment
Media Effects: AgendaSetting, Priming, and Framing
• Agenda-Setting: The power to bring
attention to particular issues and problems
• Priming – The process of preparing the
public to take a particular view of an event
or a political actor
• Framing – The power of the media to
influence how events and issues are
interpreted
Clicker Question
A decision to lead a broadcast with a story
about a high-profile murder case rather than
the president’s trip to the Middle East is an
example of a media effect called
A. agenda setting.
B. priming.
C. framing.
Measuring Public Opinion:
Selection Bias
• A poll is a scientific instrument for
measuring public opinion
• Because we usually cannot ask everyone
whose opinion we want, we must start by
finding a representative sample of the
larger population
• Finding a representative sample is not
easy and we have to avoid selection bias
Measuring Public Opinion:
Sample Size
• The reliability of a poll is a function of
sample size
• The larger the sample size, the less the
chance that the result will be the result of
sampling error
• However, larger samples are more
expensive to construct
Two Pollsters and Their
Records
Measuring Public Opinion:
Survey Design
• Even with a large, representative sample,
a poll may provide a misleading result or
measurement error
• Measurement error is the failure to identify
the true distribution of opinion within a
population because of errors such as
ambiguous or poorly worded questions
The Questions Matter
Measuring Public Opinion:
Illusion of Salience
• A salient interest is an attitude or view that
is especially important to the individual
holding it
• By reporting results in quantitative terms,
polls can give the impression that
something is important when it actually is
not. This is the illusion of salience
How Does Public Opinion
Influence Government Policy?
• Four important ways:
– Electoral accountability
– Building coalitions: Public bills are more likely
to pass if they have public support.
– Input in rule making and legal decisions
– Shaping public opinion: Political leaders’
behavior is changed as they seek to shape
public opinion.