Primaries and caucuses
Definition
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A primary is an election to choose a
party’s candidate for elective office
(Presidency)
A Caucus is a meeting to choose a
party’s candidate for elective office.
These tend to be held in geographically
large States with small populations.
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Caucuses therefore tend to favour the
more ideological candidates as those
turning out tend to be more
ideologically driven. So in 2008 Ron
Paul who is a libertarian Republican got
his best results in caucus states. In
2012 Rick Santorum won the Iowa
Caucus.
Timing of primaries
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The national parties usually lay down the earliest and
latest possible dates but within that period the state
decides the date
Some states try to schedule their primaries on a date
when no other primaries are being held to get their
state prominence
Other states create a regional primary
A Tuesday in Feb when a number of states arrange
their primaries together has come to be known as
SUPER TUESDAY
In 2008 Super Tuesday was in early Feb and was the
biggest ever with 22 Democrat and 21 Republican
contests being held.
In 2012 Super Tuesday was not so super with only
10 States holding primaries
How Primaries and Caucuses
work?
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To win nomination a candidate must achieve
their parties quota of delegates e.g R
1144/2186 and D 2117/4233.
Each State party is awarded a number of
delegates roughly in proportion to the
population. Some states get award super
delegates.
Some states award delegates on a winner
takes all basis others on a proportional basis.
Super delegates can vote any way they want
whereas delegates must follow the wishes of
the state.
How Primaries and Caucuses
work?
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If a candidate withdraws the delegates
pledged to vote for them are then free
to vote for another candidate.
If a candidate gains the quota before all
the primaries are finished he has
effectively won the nomination as the
delegates are pledged. This comes
about because of Frontloading.
Frontloading
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This is the process by which state parties move their
primaries earlier in the primary race in order to boost
the importance of their state.
This often results in a chaotic and hectic first half of
the primary race as well as a frontrunner emerging
as often a majority of the delegates have been
settled by this time. e.g. in 2008 by end of February
70% of delegates had been decided. In 2012
Romney secures 1144 with Texas win on 29 May.
It can also lead to the wrong person being chosen as
candidate
Advantages of front loading
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Party settles its nomination early thus
avoiding a protracted and expensive
battle lasting for months
Reduces the amount of ‘fratricidal strife’
– more time for the party to heal itself.
Disadvantages of front loading
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Unfairly favours well-known, well-organised
and well-financed candidates and makes it
much more difficult for so-called insurgent
candidacies to be successful e.g. Jimmy
Carter in 1976 Democratic race
Because the nomination is decided so early,
there is little opportunity for any
reassessment of a candidate’s potential
weaknesses. Can lead to ‘buyer’s remorse’.
Has also lead to a chaotic timetable which
makes it difficult for candidates to campaign
Types of Primary
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Two types of primary
Open and Closed
All voters register but some states
require you to state an affiliation to a
party.
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In Closed primaries only those
registered voters affiliated to a
particular party can vote in that Party’s
primary.
In Open primaries voters can vote in
either party’s primary but not both.
Iowa and New Hampshire
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By tradition they always hold the first primaries.
These contests often shape the character of later
contests.
A serious candidate always looks to win in one of
these states
However, Bill Clinton failed to win either one
Also, Howard Dean did badly here, (hence the
scream) even though he had won the invisible
primary
Kerry had put all his time and money into winning
Iowa (which was first) which he did and this seemed
to be a winning strategy as he then built up
momentum and then won New Hampshire
This seems to show these contests are more
important than the invisible primary?
The Importance of Iowa and New
Hampshire in 2008 for the Republicans
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Iowa result saw Mike Huckabee 34%,
Mitt Romney 25%, John McCain and
John Thompson 13%
3 months previously Huckabee was
polling just 8%
Huckabee went on to win primaries in 4
states and caucuses in 3.
The Importance of Iowa and New
Hampshire in 2008 for the Republicans
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New Hampshire saw Guiliani the front
runner lose to McCain but Guiliani had
decided to sit out the first 3 weeks of
contest – a strategy that was to prove
costly!
The Importance of Iowa and New
Hampshire in 2008 for the Democrats
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Iowa delivered a huge blow to Clinton
as she came in third (29%) behind
Edwards (30%) and Obama (38%).
A huge blow for the Clinton camp and
one that set the scene for one of the
most startling upsets in presidential
nominating history.
The Importance of Iowa and New
Hampshire in 2008 for the Democrats
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New Hampshire seemed to steady the
ship for Clinton as she won it but only
by 3% points which was not as big a
gap as her team would have liked.
Iowa and New Hampshire:
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Victory in New Hampshire and Iowa
bring three big bonuses
Equally defeat can bring three big
negatives
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Media coverage
Money
Boost in opinion poll
Iowa and New Hampshire:
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Following Iowa victory Obama enjoyed
pages of favourable press in Time and
Newsweek
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Following New Hampshire McCain made
it on to the front cover of Time
Iowa and New Hampshire in
2012
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Santorum just won Iowa which showed
the importance of ideology in Caucus. It
also signalled that he might be a
Conservative threat to Romney as he
took his campaign national.
He went on to win 6 states and lost
narrowly in a number of states.
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Romney won New Hamphsire and
seemed to establish him as the
frontrunner
Romney wins 6/10 States on Super
Tuesday
He gains nomination on 29 May
Importance of Primaries and
are they effective?
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Divide into 3 groups with the following
numbers
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Group 1 – 3 members (L)
Group 2 – 7members (Rest)
Group 3 – 3 members (Xt)
Using the pages 51-58 and the
handouts each group is going to create
a media presentation.
Importance of Primaries and
are they effective?
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Group 1 will cover ‘The importance of
primaries and the strengths of the
current system’. You are to create an
infomercial on this topic to educate the
American electorate
Importance of Primaries and
are they effective?
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Group 2 will cover the ‘Criticisms of the
current system’. You are to create a
‘breakfast style news report’ one
reporter and 6 members of the public
asked what they they see the problems
of the primary system are!
Importance of Primaries and
are they effective?
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Group 3 will cover ‘the possible reforms
and whether primaries are important at
all’. You are to to a Newsnight style
interview.
The 2008 Republican primary
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There were 8 candidates but only 4 were
realistic ie McCain, Thompson, Romney and
Guiliani
McCain was the front-runner at the start of
2007. Any ideas why?
Romney was the CEO of the Winter Olympics
in Salt Lake City in 2002 and was also
Governor of Massachusetts, a Republican
governor of a Democrat state. But he is a
Mormon and also seen as quite liberal
The 2008 Republican primary
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Guiliani was ‘America’s mayor’ after
09/11
However, he was also seen as too
liberal for some Republicans and had a
colourful private life
Fred Thompson was in Law and Order
but he dithered too much and then
dropped out
The 2008 Republican primary
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Guiliani took a risk that did not pay off – he
decided to sit out the first 6 contests as he
felt he would be too liberal to play well with
Republican voters
He had failed to build up momentum or get
media attention and thus bombed in Florida
Romney thus put all his money into winning
Iowa in the hope of building up momentum,
however, Huckabee won
Huckabee was seen as more ‘normal’ than
the slick Romney
Continued
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New Hampshire helped McCain, he had done
what Bill Clinton had in 1992 when he
labelled himself the ‘comeback kid’.
He had been behind in the money primary
but then started to build momentum
McCain had beaten Romney in every
demographic except the over 65s
In the following contests it was his support
amongst ‘independents’ which helped him
Crowning of McCain
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Super Tuesday sealed McCain’s fate as
the Republican nominee
He won 6 of the 7 ‘winner-takes-all’
contests including California.
Huckabee had played a key role as he
had taken votes away from Romney
having support from evangelicals and
the South
Why did McCain win?
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Mainly because his opposition imploded e.g.
Guiliani’s disastrous strategy
Romney being liberal but pandering to the
conservative right of the Republican party
Thompson dithered
Huckabee only really appealed to southerners
and evangelicals
McCain had remained true to himself even on
unpopular issues e.g. immigration, Iraq and
campaign finance reform
The 2008 Democratic primary
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There were 3 front-runners - Clinton, Obama
and John Edwards
Clinton was the clear front-runner, 2 months
before Iowa she was 28% ahead of Obama
However, she came 3rd in the Iowa caucuses
She never really recovered from this
Charlie Cook ‘National Journal’ – ‘The
Democratic nomination fight may not be over
but the landscape has completely changed’
2008 Democratic primary
contest
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The poll after the Iowa caucuses put Obama
and Clinton at 33% each
Hillary tried to show her more human side as
she was now fighting for her political life
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVlwH705Fk
She won New Hampshire but only by 8000
votes. More women had voted for her and
the younger voters
2008 Democratic primary
contest
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Between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday Clinton
won Nevada and Obama won South Carolina
Most women voted for Clinton and the over 65s but
every other social group voted for Obama in South
Carolina
Obama got the endorsement of Ted Kennedy
Bill had campaigned in South Carolina and he seemed
to be losing his cool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su82qBzUwjQ
Ted Kennedy said that the contest had
‘fundamentally altered the dynamics of the Democrat
presidential contest’
Super Tuesday
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The result was a draw, with Obama just
ahead on points
Obama won 13 to Clinton’s 9 but Clinton’s
tally included large-population states of
California and New York
Obama won 847 delegates to Clinton’s 834
Clinton had not expected the primary
contests to last and thus had no plan to move
forward
Obama now had the big mo
The end of Clinton
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Hillary’s contest ended in February
Obama won 9 contests in 11 days and pulled ahead
in terms of delegate numbers
Clinton sacked her campaign manager Patti Solis
Doyle
By mid-February Obama was ahead in the polls and
was now winning votes amongst women, low income
earners and conservatives away from Clinton
Symbolically, the Obama team started his speech
before she had even finished hers
Clinton hoped to win Texas to show she could still
win big
Hillary’s last hurrah
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Clinton team were running out of the big mo and
money and everyone was waiting for to bow out
However, she had a better March and April – winning
Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island
Clinton focussed on Obama’s lack of foreign policy
experience
Her ’sniper fire’ quote was found to be misleading
However, Obama had his own bad press due to his
association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his
controversial comments
Clinton clung on until June when Obama finally
received the 2,118 delegate votes he needed
Why did Clinton lose?
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The 2008 Democratic nomination race
was supposed to be a coronation for
Clinton not a competition
She had been planning her victory for
more than a decade
But this was part of her problem, the air
of inevitability, this counted against her
with voters
Poor organisation, personnel
and management
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Based organisation similar to Bill’s campaign
in 92
Chief personnel were Patti Solis Doyle and
Mark Penn who were friends and not
necessarily the best people for the job
There seemed to be no clear plan
Some of her team were fighting with each
other
Losing the money primary
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‘Mrs Clinton built the best fund-raising
machine of the 20th century but Mr Obama
trumped her by building the best fund-raising
machine of the 21st century’ The Economist
Clinton campaign was raising money the old
way – thru fat cats and ‘whales’ i.e. big
donors who only donate once
Obama was raising money thru the internet
getting $50 or $100 but many times
Change, not experience
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Voters according to polls wanted
change but Clinton had based her
campaign on ‘experience’ and tried to
attack Obama for lack of it
The Iowa defeat
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Clinton finished third in Iowa and from
then on was always on the defensive
She needed to have a big win in New
Hampshire to pull things back but altho
she did win it was only by 3 percentage
points
No plan past Super Tuesday
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‘It’ll be over by 5 February’ Clinton
had claimed just days before the Iowa
caucuses
She thus had no plan to move forward
and was running out of money
Bill Clinton
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The campaign started to be about Bill and his
erratic behaviour
He was supposed to be an asset but had
turned from ‘statesman into attack dog’
Newsweek
The issue became if she can’t control her
husband, who the hell is going to run this
White House – a Clinton insider
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qqd2dfjl2
pw
Primary calendar and party
rules
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‘It was the primary calendar that killed
Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign’
New York Observer
If the Democrats had allowed winnertakes-all primaries
If Florida and Michigan had been a bit
later etc