the National Security
Strategy
Vital interests
Threats
Resilience
ALL-HAZARD APPROACH
NATIONAL SECURITY
the ‘Dutch definition’
5 vital interests:





Territorial security
Phsyical safety
Economical security
Ecological security
Social and political stability
Societal disruption
All-hazard approach
Safety and security
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
GOAL: To increase our national resilience through
insight in threats and capabilities
• Multi-sector approach
• Ministries remain primarily responsible – for
prevention and preparation and – in cooperation with the
ministry of Security and Justice – for response
• Ministry of Security and Justice is primarily
responsible for crisismanagement
• Government-wide cooperation based on equality
• Public-private cooperation
WORKPROCESS
Which threats
do we face?
Threat/Risk
Analysis
What is the
impact?
Risk
Assessment
What do we
need to do?
Tasks
What do we
need to have?
Capabilities
Policy
initiatives
Capabilities
Analysis
Political
Decision
Strategic
foresight
Short-term
analysis
National Risk
Assessment
ACTORS INVOLVED
RISK: likelihood and impact
Scenario
Impact
Likelihood
RISK
10 IMPACT CRITERIA
1. Territorial security
1.1 infringement of territorial integrity
1.2 infringement of the international position of
the Netherlands
2. Physical safety
2.1 fatalities
2.2 seriously injured or chronically ill
2.3 physical suffering (lack of basic necessities)
3. Economical security
3.1 costs
4. Ecological security
5. Social and political
stability
4.1 longterm impact on environment and
nature (flora & fauna)
5.1 disruption of everyday life
5.2 violation of the democratic system
5.3 social-psychological impact
Uncertainties in risk assessment
•
Experts should state source of
know-how (e.g. empirical data)
•
Available empirical data may not
be rejected, replaced or removed
•
Experts should differentiate
between uncertainties (due to a
lack of knowledge) and differences
of opinion between experts
•
Records should be kept of all
references, sources assumptions
and uncertainties used by experts
WORKPROCESS
Which threats
do we face?
Threat/Risk
Analysis
What is the
impact?
Risk
Assessment
What do we
need to do?
Tasks
What do we
need to have?
Capabilities
Policy
initiatives
Capabilities
Analysis
Political
Decision
Strategic
foresight
Short-term
analysis
National Risk
Assessment
CAPABILITIES ANALYSIS
GOAL: Identifying capabilities that help reduce the
impact and/or likelihood of a threat.
General capabilities
The capabilities analysis primarily identifies capabilities that
have a positive effect on more than one type of threat.
 reasons are:
cost-efficiency and also covering unknown threats
POLICY INITIATIVES
TRADITIONAL
PARADIGM
Prevention
Preparation
Response
RESILIENCE
Recovery
ACTORS INVOLVED
• All ministries:
• Responsible ministry leads capabilities analysis
• Secretariat by NCTV
• Experts:
• Private sector and critical infrastructure companies
• Thematic experts (e.g. social media)
• Other bodies of government:
• Local/Regional
• International
• Societal organisations and civilians
WORKING TOGETHER
Different responsibilities – Common interest
 To avoid societal disruption
• Government: Prevent fatalities and injury and prevent a loss
of confidence in government
• Private sector: Prevent loss of income/profit/customers
• Individuals: Prevent personal losses (cash,
gas/water/electricity)
POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY
• Yearly report to Parliament about:
• The National Risk Assessment
• Priorities (based on Capabilities analysis)
• Progress on previous priorities
• Interdepartmental cooperation:
•
•
•
•
Interdepartmental Workinggroup on National Security (IWNV)
Steeringgroup National Security (SNV)
Council on Safety and Security
Council of ministers
ADVICE & DECISIONMAKING PER STEP
Roles:
Decision
making
&
Advice
IWNV
SNV
IWNV
SNV
MR
IWNV
SNV
E.g.:
Network of Analists
Ministries
Thinktanks
Network of Analists
Workinggroup
Capabilities Analysis
Coregroup
IWNV
Safety Regions
Steps
workprocess
Choosing
themes
Scenariodevelopment
Risk
assessment
Capabilities
Analysis
Policy
Initiatives
QUESTIONS?
PRIVATE SECTOR & CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• Critical infrastructure sectors:
• products, services and underlying processes that, if
interrupted, can cause societal disruption
• The dependency of society on these (mostly) basic needs is a
reason to take extra measures.
• Critical infrastructure in NL: 12 sectors, partly public,
mostly private companies
• What is expected of C.I.-sectors?
• Resilience, garanteed continuity, prevention of disruption
• Mutual aim: to avoid losses as a result of discontinuity
• Mutual interest: shared notions of possible risks and
‘solutions’
CIVILIANS & SOCIETAL ORGANISATIONS
• Openness to the public on risks:
• Risk map on the internet: www.risicokaart.nl
• Mass communication campaign
•Resilience of citizens
•Public participation (encourage citizens to act)
• Implementing a cell-broadcast system
• Cooperation with societal organisations:
• Red Cross & Orange Cross (Disaster response and first aid)
• Educational organisations
• Knowledge & advice organisation for post-disaster psychosocial
care
• Center for Crime-prevention and Safety
THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION
• International attention for risk-analysis is rising:
•
•
•
•
EU (guidelines for risk assessment)
NATO (Civil Protection Committee)
OECD (future global shocks)
UN (ISDR-Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015)
• Similar approaches in different countries (UK, France,
Germany, Norway, Canada, The Netherlands)
• But many different ways of organising the process
• Exchange on methodology, process and outcomes
• Exchange of experiences, also in crisissituations