Presentation to ICPAK
PFM Conference September 2014
Jason Lakin, Ph.D.,
Country Manager, IBP Kenya

Good Practice? Yes
Important for accountability? Of course
Signals fiscal credibility to creditors? Sure
But
Those
Are
Not
The
Most
Important
Reasons www.internationalbudget.org/kenya 2

The New Public Finance is About Dialogue
• Kenya’s 2010 constitution reconstituted the budget process as a long conversation
• Starts in January with the Division of Revenue
(how much for each level of government?)
• In February, we debate the ceilings by sector
(how much for each sector?)
• In May, we debate the priorities within each sector (how much for programmes, etc.?)
• In June, we finalize the agreement
That is six months of talking! And then….
www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 3

• Finance bill (revenues) starts in June, can run to end September
• Discussions within sectors at both national and county level that lead into the BPS (February)
• At county level, Annual Development Plan is tabled in September, kicking off conversation about priorities, which runs to February
• So…we are basically meant to be talking all the time www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 4

The budget conversation is now a core part of the democratic discourse
• All key actors are present (executive, legislature, public, judiciary)
• Multiple opportunities to give views as we move from overall resources to within sector
• Conversation continues after approval with implementation reports, budget reviews, and evaluation, which should all lead back into formulation www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 5

• We aren’t using a common language
• We aren’t sharing key information
• We aren’t making consistent, logical arguments
• We aren’t listening or responding to each other www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 6

And these are indeed some of the challenges
• Common language : classification, chart of accounts, PBB narrative
• Key information : state corporations, quarterly implementation data, Division of Revenue
• Consistent arguments : failure to observe agreed ceilings, prior agreements
• Listening/responding : meaningful forums, documenting inputs, providing feedback www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 7

Let’s start with Programme-Based Budgets
• Improving, but still form over substance
• Narrative is not linked to allocations
• Programmes do not have clear objectives; subprogrammes do not have any
• Programmes are meant to focus on outputs, but many are thin veils over “recurrent/capital” input split
• Not disaggregated sufficiently or aligned with line-item budgets for clarity about spending www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 8

• Poor narrative means we cannot understand each other
• But also no clear written classification guidelines (e.g., what is development?) to unite language
• Lack of common use of Chart of Accounts
• IFMIS not geared toward different budget programmes at county level causing confusion
• Result?
www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 9

Tower of
Budget Babel www.Internationalbudget.org
10

We cannot hide critical information and still have meaningful discussions
• Example I: State corporations receive over Ksh 350 billion from the budget (2012/13)
• Previously, there was an Annex on state corporations tabled with the budget
• Never comprehensive, but no longer available; SCs also don’t feature in PBB
• Difficult to get state corporation annual reports and financial statements to understand their budgets and the fiscal risks they pose
• Concern as counties move to set up county state corporations www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 11

• Budget discussion doesn’t start and end with formulation
• Budget implementation reports are critical for review and input into next year’s allocations
• PFMA requires counties to produce and publish quarterly reports within 30 days of end of quarter, yet they are not
• COB is producing some, but not consistent across counties, not timely www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 12

• Ministries have failed to release adequate information about their spending
• Treasury/CRA released incomplete cost basis for calculations (2012/13 line item basis is opaque)
• Conditional grants are divided between DOR and other parts of the budget randomly and not guided by transparent framework
• Low quality debate, limited understanding of costs, functions and mechanisms of sharing www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 13

We cannot discuss with people that keep changing their positions
• Budget process expects ceilings to be set in March by
National and County Assembly
• Then proceed to discuss within sector priorities
• Yet Assemblies are not respecting ceilings; some
CFSPs did not even include ceilings
• Even Treasury broke ceilings and then Parliament, instead of restoring, accepted (e.g., Ministry of Health) and further increased; narrative doesn’t match figures
• Budget Committee did not follow its own report on issue of L5 hospital grant www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 14

When we ask people for their views, we have to listen and respond
• Few forums with advance notice or data; sometimes no data even at the forum
• There are few documents at national or county level that acknowledge inputs and how these were used
• MPs used to describe in detail feedback they received, but no longer (9 counties visited, but only general feedback: “concerns” about security, agriculture); Nyeri
Assembly had annex of submissions received www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 15

• Has been a lot of training and capacity building
• Some has been good, some has been poor, but change will only come when there is more demand from citizens
• Professionals have a key role to play because they understand what is supposed to happen and why and can make strong arguments
• Also have status and can make consequential noises www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 16

• How does Kenya compare to other countries in the region?
• Not at the top, not at the bottom
• Let’s look at two sources of data: Open Budget
Survey and Open Budget Tracker
• Allow for national comparison only; some subnational work is underway with Institute of
Economic Affairs www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 17

• An objective, comparative survey that evaluates:
• public access to national budget information (95 questions); 8 key documents assessed
• opportunities for public participation in budgets (12 questions)
• the strength of formal oversight institutions – national legislatures and external auditors (16 questions).
• Based on international good practices developed by the IMF, OECD, INTOSAI, and the IBP.
• 2012 Survey is the fourth round; 2015 underway now
• 26 countries from Sub-Saharan Africa and 4 from North Africa are included in the 2012 Survey www.internationalbudget.org
18

Key Finding #1:
Major Gaps in Budget Transparency Worldwide
• Governments publish less than half of the required budget data (Average score 43/100).
• For Sub-Saharan Africa, the average score is lower, 31/100.
• Only 23 of the 100 countries provide their citizens with comprehensive budget information (South Africa and
Uganda)
• 21 countries do not publish the Executive’s Budget Proposal
(eight are in SSA)
• Worst performers on the continent include Equatorial
Guinea, Benin, Chad, Niger, and Zambia www.internationalbudget.org
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www.internationalbudget.org
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Key Finding #2:
Positive but Slow Trend Towards Improvement
• 20 percent increase in budget transparency in 40 countries with comparable data between 2006 and 2012.
• Kenya has generally stagnated, but some improvement likely in
2015 (budget documents online and timely, etc.)
• Africa has many champions:
– Liberia: 3  42
– Uganda: 32  65
– Burkina Faso: 11  23 (Francophone West Africa more generally)
– São Tomé e Príncipe: 1  29 www.internationalbudget.org
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Key Finding #3:
Few Opportunities for Public Participation
Some promising innovations exist in this area, including: public hearings; client surveys; social audits; citizen audit requests systems; fraud hotlines www.internationalbudget.org
22

Key Finding #4:
Oversight Institutions Are Ineffective In Practice
• Oversight institutions have moderate levels of formal powers, but struggle to exercise these in practice.
• LEGISLATURES
– Inadequate research capacity and limited time to review the budget
– Limited powers to approve and monitor changes to the enacted budget during budget execution
• SUPREME AUDIT INSTITUTIONS
– Lack of independence
– Limited resources www.internationalbudget.org
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An online database that presents monthly updates on budget documents released by governments.
Reports the publication status of eight key budget documents in one of three ways:
1. Published
2. Produced for Internal Use Only
3. Not Produced www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 24

• The Open Budget Survey covers 102 countries, while the
OBS Tracker pilot covers 30 (including some of the lowest scoring countries in the Open Budget Survey 2012).
• OBS Tracker data can be used to assess whether individual budget documents have been published in a country.
• OBS Tracker data cannot be used to assess the country’s overall budget transparency levels – the Open Budget
Survey is the appropriate source for such information.
• But Tracker gives more up to the minute information on fewer items
• Some preliminary results from Africa: www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 25

Africa OBS Tracker Results (July data)
PBS
NP
PW
IU
PW
PW
PW
IU
HC
PW
NP
Country
Ghana
Kenya
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
DR Congo
Mali
Senegal
Nigeria
Cote d'Ivoire
Niger
PW
PW
EB
PW
PW
PW
PW
PW
IU
PW
PW
EBP
PW
PW
PW
PW
PW
PW
IU
HC
PW
PW
PW
PW
CB
PW
PW
PW
PW
NP
NP
PW
PW
PW
PW
IYR
PW
PW
PW
PW
PW
NP
PW
NP
IU
HC
YER
PW
NP
IU
IU
PW
IU
NP
PW
IU
IU
MYR
PW
NP
NP
NP
NP
NP
NP
IU
AR
Publicly
Available
7
Not Produced
Produced for
Internal Use
1 0
PW
6 0
PW
6 0
PW
6 2
PW
5 2
NP
5 2
NP
5 3
NP
4 3
NP
3 3
NP
NP
2 4 www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 26
2
2
0
1
1
0
1
2
2

• Africa is increasingly digital (most documents are on websites now)
• Kenya performance is relatively good, but could be better
• In Kenya’s case, very consistent with OBS: two key documents not published to international standards (Mid-Year Review and Year-End Report)
• Suggestive that our conversation about budget implementation is still weak (compared to Ghana,
South Africa) www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 27

www.internationalbudget.org/kenya www.facebook.com/internationalbudgetkenya
@IBP_Kenya www.Internationalbudget.org/kenya 28