The
Winners
Losers
in the move to
Real-Time Cloud
Communications
Structure
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2
The Facts
Why do we need APIs?
Why all the big numbers?
Mapping the Cloud Communications API landscape
Where to Focus?
Where is the Telecom Application Developer Ecosystems going?
Who are the winners and losers?
© 2010 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development
No developed market telco
has successfully engaged
mobile application
developers with Telecom
APIs
BUT Telecom API
successes have come from
using APIs internally
AND Telecom API
successes have come from
using APIs with existing
partners
APIs reduce business friction.
This means the value is not ‘in
the API’ it’s in the service or
data delivered through the API.
Mobile Application Developers
ONLY care about direct access to
a large engaged customer base
that is prepared to pay.
Apple and Android fulfill this
need, Telcos are IRRELEVANT
Revenue
This is the Most Important Slide in the Pack
Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobile App Developers
Long Tail Developers
Product
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Developers that recognize
they build telecom apps
today
Hardcore
Telco Software
Infrastructure
(10ks)
IT/Web Programmers building
on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs
(1Ms)
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using
web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms
(10Ms)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Hardcore
Telco Software
Infrastructure
(10ks)
Developers that recognize
they build telecom apps
tomorrow
IT/Web Programmers building
on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs
(1Ms)
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using
web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms
(10Ms)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
What is an API?
•
http://www.telco.com/api.php?action=remove_friction
APIs reduce business friction by making it easy for software systems to work together
using existing well understood web technology that any IT person can understand
Why do we need Telecom APIs?
Why do we need a
Web site?
1995
Of course we have
a Web site
2000
2005
New distribution
Accelerate internal projects
Upsell
Innovation
Why do we need
an API?
2010
Device and mobile support
Operational efficiency
Make churn harder
Extend products / services
Of course we have
an API
Increase footprint
Partner opportunities
Process automation
New business
Telecoms is the ‘vital spice’ of any successful business ecosystem
Show me the money? graphic
Where’s the Money in External APIs?
$244B by 2017
$157B by 2018
$18B in 2016
Mobile payments revenue, source BI
Intelligence. Includes Apple,
Android, Square, Visa Mobile, etc.
Total Telecom API revenue, source
Mind Commerce. Payment,
Communications, Identity, Cloud, etc.
Alan Quayle’s view is the revenues
will be $18B and dominated by
payment and communication service
revenues by 2016
Juniper predicts DCB (Direct Carrier
Billing) growing from $2.5B in 2012 to
$13B in 2017 (this assumes only digital
downloads, not goods and services)
What if a Telco does nothing?
Telco becomes the “path of last
resort” as apps use “easy and
economical” APIs for 90% of
comms
Easy and Economical 90%
Global comms clouds
Applications
Laggards 10%
Telco
Customers
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Informational APIs
(e.g. customer profile)
Developer
Community
API Publishers
Tropo, Twilio,
etc.
Developer
Portal
API
Management
Transactional APIs
e.g. call control
API Management (including API Security)
Intel Software (Mashery), CA (Layer 7), Apigee
API
Services
Network
Gateway
Cloud /
BOSS
Assets
IT /
Service
Assets
Network
Assets
IMS
Assets
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Informational APIs
Transactional APIs
Developer
Community
Developer
Portal
Apigee, Intel (Mashery),
Layer 7 (CA), SOA Software,
3Scale, IBM, Open Source
API
Management
API
Services
Intel (Aepona),
Ericsson, Huawei,
Oracle, Open Source
Network
Gateway
Cloud /
BOSS
Assets
IT /
Service
Assets
2600Hz, Aculab,
Apidaze,
Bandwidth,
hSenid Mobile,
OnMobile,
OpenCloud,
Plivo, Restcomm,
Solaiemes,
TelAPI, Tropo,
Twilio, etc.
Network
Assets
IMS
Assets
Where are External Telco APIs going?
•
External Telecom API Roadmap
o
Payments: whether to expand beyond digital downloads
o
Communications: across all VAS not just calls – RCS, messaging,
number provision, WebRTC, etc.
•
Focus on building a businesses around the APIs rather than
publish and wishful thinking
o
Sales, marketing, business development and critically support
o
Traditional transition from tech-focus to business-focus
Customers
Services
1-3.3%
0-2%
Threats to Revenue
5.5 to 9%
Over the Top Messaging
hits SMS growth
3 to 4%
Mobile substitution of fixed
broadband with LTE
0 to 2%
OTT substitution,
saturation, competition
-5 to -7%
Mobile and OTT
substitution
Mobile
Data
($275B)
Fixed
Data
($275B)
Mobile
Voice
($615B)
Fixed
Voice
($325B)
3-6%
Regulated
Services
($1.5T)
+
Unregulated
Services
($650B)
Total Telecoms
Services
($2.15T)
=
Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle
There’s just 2 things we need to focus on
Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
Do more VAS!
Revenue
Telecom Application Developer Ecosystem
Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobile App Developers
Long Tail Developers
Product
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Hardcore
Telco Software
Infrastructure
(10ks)
Developers that recognize
they build telecom apps
tomorrow
IT/Web Programmers building
on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs
(1Ms)
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using
web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms
(10Ms)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
No Gatekeeper
Focus
Motivation
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