Risks of Financial Intermediation Chapter 7 Financial Institutions Management, 3/e By Anthony Saunders Irwin/McGraw-Hill 1 Risks of Financial Intermediation Interest rate risk • Mismatch in maturities of assets and liabilities. • Balance sheet hedge via matching maturities of assets and liabilities is problematic for FIs. • Refinancing risk. • Reinvestment risk. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 2 Risks of Financial Intermediation Market risk • Incurred in trading of assets and liabilities (and derivatives). • Examples: Barings & decline in ruble. • Trend to greater reliance on trading income rather than traditional activities increases market exposure. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 3 Risks of Financial Intermediation Credit Risk • Risk that promised cash flows are not paid in full. • Firm specific credit risk • Systematic credit risk Off-balance-sheet risk • Letters of credit, loan commitments, derivative positions, etc. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 4 Risks of Financial Intermediation Technology and operational risk • Risk that technology investment fails to produce anticipated cost savings. • Risk that technology may break down. • Economies of scale. • Economies of scope. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 5 Risks of Financial Intermediation Foreign exchange risk • Returns on foreign and domestic investment are not perfectly correlated. • FX rates may not be correlated. » Example: $/DM may be increasing while $/¥ decreasing. • Undiversified foreign expansion creates FX risk. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 6 Risks of Financial Intermediation Country or Sovereign Risk • Result of exposure to foreign government which may impose restrictions on repayments to foreigners. • Lack usual recourse via court system. • Examples: Korea, Indonesia, Thailand 1998. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 7 Risks of Financial Intermediation Liquidity Risk • Risk of being forced to borrow, or sell assets in a very short period of time. » Low prices result. • May generate runs. » Runs may turn liquidity problem into solvency problem. » Risk of systematic bank panics. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 8 Risks of Financial Intermediation Insolvency Risk • Risk of insufficient capital to offset sudden decline in value of assets to liabilities. • Original cause may be excessive interest rate, market, credit, off-balance-sheet, technological, FX, sovereign, and liquidity risks. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 9 Risks of Financial Intermediation Other Risks and Interaction of Risks • Interdependencies among risks. » Example: Interest rates and credit risk. • Discrete Risks » Example: Tax Reform Act of 1986. » Other examples include effects of war, market crashes, theft, malfeasance. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 10 Risks of Financial Intermediation Macroeconomic Risks • Increased inflation or increase in its volatility. » Affects interest rates as well. • Increases in unemployment » Affects credit risk as one example. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 11