Why Air Forces Fail
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Why Air Force’s Fail
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Key elements consistently present in failed Air
Forces:
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Airmen not trained for the task at hand
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Failure to understand the nature of the
threat
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Misunderstanding the opponent and
training for the wrong fight
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Relegated to a subservient role vs. land
component
Why Air Forces Fail (University Press of Kentucky, 2006)
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Categories of Failure
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"Dead Ducks:” Never really had a chance
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"Hares:” Exploited advantages, but doomed by later blunders
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Poland in 1939, France in 1940, Italy from 1933 to 1943
Germany in both World Wars and Japan in WW II
"Phoenixes:” Rose from the ashes of early defeats
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Russia in both World Wars; US and Britain in WW II
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Arab Air Forces; Argentines in the Falklands
Deficiencies in industrial infrastructure are key factors in most
analyses of defeat, as are mistaken decisions about technology
and tactics, and the neglect of logistics and pilot training.
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Strategic, Systemic Failures
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Air Forces don’t fail by themselves:
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Failure to Anticipate: Nature of war,
nature of the enemy, & new technology
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Failure to Learn: Organizational /
systemic deficiency lessons from other
Air Forces & our own
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Failure to Adapt: Inherent human
reluctance to adjust behavior
Failure occurs in national, strategic context
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Case Study of the IAF
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Spectacular successes, and
near catastrophic failures,
offer lessons for the USAF
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Six Day War
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War of Attrition
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Yom Kippur
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Osirak, Beka’a & Beyond
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Six Day War
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Decisive victory through airpower
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Won in a 3 hour air campaign
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454 enemy aircraft destroyed
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Operation “MOKED”
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Rehearsed for a year:
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C2 by compass / stop watch
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Parallel airfield attacks, radio silence
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Enemy air forces in ruins
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Rest of the war about taking terrain with total air supremacy
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Six Day War Lessons
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Lesson 1: Employment
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Offensive, independent, unconstrained
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Airpower won decisively vs. superior foes
Lesson 2: Planning and training
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Lesson 3: Leadership and morale
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Keys to flawless execution
Wins over superior numbers
Lesson 4: Must destroy
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Will to resist
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Enemies’ operational tempo
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War of Attrition
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Failure to learn, adapt & anticipate -- Egypt, Jordan & Syria
simultaneous fronts
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IAF: Linchpin of deterrent posture--total reliance on airpower
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1967-71 period would haunt IAF by ‘73:
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Strategic misuse of airpower
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In-lieu-of tasking
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Focus on terrorism
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“Enslavement to the Army”
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Success fed NATIONAL hubris
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Downed 7 Russian-flown MIG 21's in single engagement
IADS threat widely known, but deemed manageable
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2 jets lost per month = “cost of doing business”
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The “new normal” = routine milk runs against increasingly lethal IADS
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War of Attrition Lessons
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Lesson 1: If you fixate on the immediate fight, you'll fail to achieve
strategic & operational objectives, lose skills & lives, and
fail to prepare for the next fight
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Lesson 2: Failure to anticipate / adapt to ENEMY innovation is lethal
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Lesson 3: Dominance is perishable
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Lesson 4: Hubris kills
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Yom Kippur War
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NATIONAL failure to anticipate the
threat and correctly employ airpower
- Yet IAF’s ability to adapt ultimately
saved the day
By Oct 73 best jets battered by 6
years of combat
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Training for a major war sacrificed to fight the War of Attrition
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Bad habits of routine milk runs in support of the Army
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Complacency set in, having survived ZSUs, SA 2s and 3s.
Precursor to war: Massive air engagement over Syria (9/13/73)
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13 MIG 21s downed with zero losses, reinforcing hubris
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Surprise Attack
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Precious hours lost debating authorization
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IAF pleas for preemptive strategic strike against Egypt and Syria
Enemy allowed to attack first on 2 fronts
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IAF jets took off under fire
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Engaged in DCA and CAS
IDF considered air superiority a
“God-given” right
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Catastrophic attrition due to robust IADs
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No tactics / countermeasures against SA 6/7
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Actual losses heavier than acknowledged
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40 % -- catastrophic attrition in fighters!
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Verge of Defeat
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Effort to reestablish air
superiority undercut by
“joint” & political
concerns
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Leadership couldn’t
make up its mind on
center of gravity
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Effort shifted to the
front most at risk -- in
the North
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Anatomy of Failure
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“Smart logistics" made a great
business case, but a horrible
warfighting case
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Didn’t anticipate the speed of
consumption of resources in ferocious
combat against a well prepared enemy
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Price = 5000 casualties (30 % officers)
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Proportionally equivalent to 430K
American casualties
(in just 3 weeks of combat)
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Yom Kippur War Lessons
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Lesson 1:
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Complacency KILLS
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Underestimating threat KILLS
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Preparing to fight last war KILLS
Lesson 2:
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Political constraints KILL
Lesson 3:
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Airpower is a strategic asset
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Tactics adapted mid-fight
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Steep learning curve cost 150 jets
(but saved lives later)
Lesson 4:
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Your allies might not bail you out
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Applicable only to Israel?
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Osirak, Beka’a and Beyond
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Redemption relatively quick:
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Recognition of airpower as single
point failure / success
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F-15s and 16s
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Weapons School training
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Primacy within the IDF
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Air Staff independent
Pay off almost immediate:
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The Entebbe Raid
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Kills against MIG 21s, 23s and 25s
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Raid on Osirak nuke reactor
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Decisive victory in the Beka’a Valley
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Score: 89 to 2
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Lessons Forgotten
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BUT, with success came new
complacency
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Dominance taken for granted
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Future fight seen on the ground
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BRAC: Re-subordination to Army
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Lebanon & Intifada’s 1 / 2
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Airmen doing in lieu of taskings -- AGAIN
Diminished effectiveness against
Hezbollah
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Failed to anticipate rocket impact
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Less effective against asymmetries
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Service rivalries
Result: At best a draw militarily
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But a strategic / political defeat
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Things to Ponder
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Warfare is dynamic & unpredictable
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Success & failure are cyclical
Airpower is a strategic asset, critical to victory
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Good armies lose without air superiority
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Redemption is possible but fleeting
Dominance erodes over time
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Over-confidence sets in quickly
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Don’t take air supremacy for granted
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The enemy will adapt, learn and anticipate
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