15 November, 9-12
Johan Brink
C23

• Problem solving
• Working Hypothesis
• The 7 ‘new’ management methods

Problem solving & Decision making
• Rationality analytics vs.
Intuition
– What we known is that
Intuition is based on cognitive pattern recognition, matching abstracts and heuristics
– Intuitive idea
• Rapid
• Analytical implication test
• Then action/implementation
• People rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce complex tasks into simpler judgmental operations
(Tversky and Kahneman 1974)

• Decomposed systems
– NK: Parts (N) and degree of interrelations (K)
• Framing the problem
– Different perspectives
– Different theories

• Novel task that the subject is unfamiliar with
• Availability of information about the problem – transparency
• Precision of goal definition – (including multiple goals, contradictory goals)
• Complexity –as number of variables and type of relationship
• Stability of problem
• Richness of semantic embedding

Internal (Problem solver)
•
Experience (Memory)
– Effect likelihood of success
– Influence the strategies
•
Cognitive variables (Information processing)
– General intelligence
– Background knowledge
– Monitoring and evaluation strategies
– Cognitive styles
•
Non cognitive variables
– Self-confidence
– Perseverance
– Motivation
– Enjoyment
Given
BARRIERS
TOOLS
Goal
External (Environment)
• Problem structure
– Semantics
– Transparency of task
– Complexity
• Problem context
– Embeddedness of task
– Familiar context
• Environmental factors
– Feedback
– Peer pressure

Define – fact –what is the problem?
• Test
– Revise , test again…
• Facts matters
• Connect to theory
& information

• Focus
• Logics
– Mutually exclusive &
Collectively exhaustive
– Clarity
– Chain of arguments

• Solution selling – arguments for ROI
• Project management
• Project controlmanagement discussions
• After case : Problem-
Activity-Result

• Affinity Diagram (KJ
Method)
• Interrelationship
Diagraph (ID)
• Tree Diagram
• Prioritization Matrix
• Matrix Diagram
• Process Decision
Program Chart (PDPC)
• Activity Network
Diagram

• This tool takes large amounts of disorganized data and information and enables one to organize it into groupings based on natural relationships.
• It was created in the 1960s by Japanese anthropologist Jiro
Kawakita.
• ‘Post-it clustering’

Academic experience
Experience from
Consultancy
First time running this course
Limited feedback
Quality and content
Enjoy different research methods
Newborn baby at home
• This tool displays all the interrelated cause-andeffect relationships and factors involved in a complex problem and describes desired outcomes.
• The process of creating an interrelationship diagraph helps a group analyze the natural links between different aspects of a complex situation.
• Box- arrow links (cause and effect)

• This tool is used to break down broad categories into finer and finer levels of detail.
• It can map levels of details of tasks that are required to accomplish a goal or task.
• It can be used to break down broad general subjects into finer and finer levels of detail.
Developing the tree diagram helps one move their thinking from generalities to specifics.
– Root-cause
– Action plans
– Components
Ishikawa - Fishbone

• Why are we having to divert ambulances?
– We don’t have any open ED bays
• Why don’t we have any open ED bays?
– We can’t get patients admitted to rooms fast enough.
• Why can’t we get patients into beds faster?
– Patients are physically out of the rooms but do not show as discharged into the system.
• Why are they not discharged in the system?
– The nurse did not notify the unit clerk to enter the discharge into the system.
• Why is process dependent on the nurse notifying the unit clerk?
– It has always worked that way.

Features
• This tool is used to prioritize items and describe them in terms of weighted criteria.
• It uses a combination of tree and matrix diagramming techniques to do a pair-wise evaluation of items and to narrow down options to the most desired or most effective.
• Cross-matrix –cause and effect matrix (function-interrelations matrix)
New colors
Extended lifetime
Use of modules
Just in time delivery xxxx
Effect
Increase sales
Increase costs
Reduced assembly cost
Reduced inventory zzzz

• This tool shows the relationship between items.
• At each intersection a relationship is either absent or present.
– Gives information about the relationship, such as its strength, the roles played by various individuals or measurements.

• This tool is used to plan the appropriate sequence or schedule for a set of tasks and related subtasks.
– Prior task
– This task
– Simultaneous tasks
– Following tasks
– Time for task
• The diagram enables one to determine the critical path
(longest sequence of tasks).
– Early & last start
– Early and last finish
5 days
5 days
2 days
4 days
1 days

Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC)
• A useful way of planning is to break down tasks into a hierarchy, using a Tree
Diagram.
• The PDPC extends the tree diagram a couple of levels to identify risks and countermeasures for the bottom level tasks.
• Used to highlight risks and identify possible countermeasures (often shown as 'clouds' to indicate their uncertain nature).
No main hypothesis
No access to key data
No access to key managers
No time for presentation
No complem entary data

The biggest problem with ...is...
1. Each participant gives his/her short view on the problem (1 min each)
2. Write down individually specific allegations/claims on notes (post its)
3. Go through the notes so everyone understands
4. Organize notes into logical groups
5. Put headlines on groups
6. Organize groups of global groups
7. Put headlines on global groups
8. Defining relationships: how do they affect different groups together?
9. Rate the different subgroups: the reasons it feels the most important?
10. Summarize results in a sentence

Lack of resources
The biggest promlem is…
Three times last week we were short of staff
Short sentances.
Maximum of 2-3 rows.
Fact based.
Specific allegations/claims.

The biggest problem is...
…!
Read.
Explain.
Clarify.
Add.
OK
!
OK
!
?
OK
!
OK
!

The biggest problem is...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!

The biggest problem is...
Aaaaa...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!

The biggest problem is...
Aaaaa...
Xxxx...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!

The biggest problem is...
Aaaaa...
Xxxx...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!

The biggest problem is...xxx
Aaaaa...
Xxxx...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!

• Do a short KJ-Shiba exercise in groups of 6~8 student
• Prepare to present your results along the process in front of the class (brief)
• Suggested Questions/’problems’ to work with:
– How do I write a really good Master thesis?
– How to I get a really good job after graduation?
– Or come up with a suitable question yourselves…