The Arab spring
Causes & Effects
Dr. Akram Khater
North Carolina State University
June 2012
What is It?
A new generation seeking a better life, freedom and
justice
Where is It?
Why We Missed It?
Popular Culture and Arabs
Why We Missed It? – Part 2
US Foreign Policy: Between Radical Islamists and
Brutal Allies
Causes of the Uprisings
Demographics
Failure and de-legitimization of the State
Globalization
Demographics
70Youth
in the Middle East and North Africa make up,
60on average, 50% of the population
50
40
30
20
10
0
Educational Crisis
Overcrowded
Classrooms
Underfunded
Schools
Underpaid Teachers
Salary in USPer
Dollars
Expenditure
Student
300
8000
7000
250
6000
200
5000
150
4000
100
3000
200050
1000 0
0
Yemen
Egypt
Jordan Lebanon
Syria
Tunisia
Syria
US
Egypt
Israel
France
Unemployment
Percentage of Unemployment for Youth 15-24
50
Male Unemployment
45
Female Unemployment
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Iran
Palestine
Saudi Arabia
Syria
UN World Population Horizons: 2004 Census
“Hayt-iste,” or the Unemployed
Poverty and Social Malaise
Absence of Government
Institutions
Lack of Infrastructure
Lack of Social Services and
Green Spaces
Imagined as dysfunctional
Political Repression
Conflicting Choices
Islamist Current
Neo-Liberalism
The Facebook Generation
Islamists:
From moderate to militant
Neo-Liberalism
The Facebook Generation:
Between Islamists and Elites
Globalization
A literate youth population
80
70
60
50
2000
1970
40
30
20
10
0
Yemen
Egypt
Syria
Iran
Libya
Bahrain
Globalization
A connected youth population
Between 2000 and 2009 internet user growth was 5863.9%
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Syria
Egypt
Yemen
Iran
Lebanon
Globalization
Twitter, facebook are tools; human rights and
democracy are their ideals
NGO and Civil Society
Immediate Future
Rise of Islamists ruling elites
Secular Parties will gain strength as Islamists prove
incapable of governance
Diverse attitude toward Shari’a
Attitudes
toward women’s rights
60%
40%
20%
0%
Tunisia
Egypt
Yemen
Implications for US Policy
Beyond the binaries of Good and Bad Arab
New Rules of Engagement - limits of military power
Rapprochement of Rhetoric and Action
Palestine/Israel
Democracy and “Allies”
Beyond Oil