The New Strategic Landscape in the Middle East
Cold War(s) in the Gulf:
Saudi Arabia and Iran
Institut Français,
Budapest, 2014. szeptember 25.
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Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade
Cold War(s) in the Gulf
•
The Middle East balance of power has significantly changed:
– from 3 to 5+1 regional states – not because any has become stronger, but all have become
relatively weaker
– decline of US interest and influence
– non-state actors on the rise – Hamas, Hezbollah threatening Israel, ISIS/ISIL/IS
– REGIONAL DYNAMIC MUCH MORE IMPORTANT
•
„The best framework for understanding the regional politics of the Middle East is
as a cold war in which Iran and Saudi Arabia play the leading roles.” (Gregory G
Gause III)
– behave as empiresbut closed in nation-state format - universalist claims to expand their
religious ideology across nation-state borders
– no direct military confrontation
– contest for influence realized in the domestic political systems of the region’s weak states more a struggle over the direction of the Middle East’s domestic politics more than a purely
military contest
•
•
Resembles the „Arab cold war” of the 1950-1960s - measured in the ability to
affect domestic political struggles in neighboring states where weak regimes had
trouble controlling their own societies and local players sought regional allies
against their own domestic opponents – the role of non-state actors
Cold Wars (plural) – beside the Saudi-Iranian competition:
–
–
–
–
crack within the GCC: Qatar vs the others (mostly Saudi+UAE)
the Muslim Brotherhood (supported by Qatar) vs Saudi Arabia
ISIS/ISISL/IS vs the rest
Arab-Israeli – still relevant?
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Saudi-Iranian competition
- not static, influenced by outside factors (e.g. ISIS)
- confrontation and appeasement
• Saudi Arabia
• Iran
– Identity:
– Identity:
• Sunni (Wahhabi) Muslim
• „the Custodian of the two
Holy Mosques” – in the
absence of a caliph a
missionary commitment
• Arab vs cajam
• Shiite Muslim (since 1501!)
missionary
commitment
(export of the Islamic
Revolution)
• Revolutionary
tradition
(Hossein
vs
quietism/Hassan)
• Ancient statehood, cultural
superiority, etc
– Alliance with US, GCC and
„behind closed doors”
Israel
– The „Shiite axis” or the
jabhat al-muqawama (filling
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the vacuum)
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The Iranian threat perception, or why are
the Iranians nervous?
President Hassan Rouhani:
„Iran is an influential power
in the region and the West
must understand this reality.”
„the most important message
of the (nuclear) talks is that
important global issues can
be
resolved
through
negotiations”
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Fields of Saudi-Iranian clash of interest
• Primary field: the Gulf.
– in spite of the continuous efforts, a kind of status quo - with Saudi
Arabia dominating the Arab side of the Gulf, Iran seeking alliances
farther away – BUT …
• Iraq - specific ethnic and religious composition + in-between
position
– Same interests: a relatively stable, but militarily not too strong Iraq
– Shared past: threat by Saddam Hussein
– Although Shiite majority in power, but no Iranian dictate – Iranian
influence in economic terms
– Saudi support to Sunni communities, BUT
– Shared concern and enemy: ISIS/ISIL/IS
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Fields of Saudi-Iranian clash of interest (cont)
• Syria
– the Assad regime (Iran) vs opposition (Saudi Arabia)
• First statments from Iranian officials acknowledging Iranian
involvement
– For Iran
•
•
•
•
Syria the only state actor ally
symbol of its regional power status
the route of supply to the Hezbollah
are the Alawites true Muslims > true Shiites?
– For Saudi Arabia
• the duty to support Sunni Muslims, BUT … MB
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Fields of Saudi-Iranian clash of interest (cont)
• Yemen
– Iranian support for the Houthi – questionable
– Saudi involvement in the Arab Spring and after
• Bahrein
– Iranian support to Shiites – questionable
– GCC Peninsula Shield, BUT …
• FINALLY it seems that
– Saudi Arabia does not allow any interference in its direct
neighbourhood on the Peninsula (the „near-abroad”)
– in Iraq an Iranian leading influence is quietly accepted
• THE ULTIMATE QUESTION: how the fight against common
threat ISIS/ISIL/IS will influence the Saudi-Iranian rivalry
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Fields of Saudi-Iranian clash of interest (cont)
• The Iranian nuclear issue
– US, Israeli + Saudi coordination
– Plan of Saudi (civilian) nuclear program (2006/7 Arab League call)
– BUT RATHER defence pact with the US
• IF THERE IS a reconciliation …
– the threat of a new axis between the US and Iran
• Iran is a big market, relatively isolated from the US (directly)
• Iranian economy eagerly waiting for US interest and investment
– impossible to stop or contain Iran in any regional issue
• THEN WHAT? - a protracted Cold War, with sifting periods of both
confrontation and appeasement, with eventual common interests
and even joint actions
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