Iran, the Persian Gulf
and American Security
•WHY DO WE CARE
ABOUT IRAN?
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http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg
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CFR Iran brief- http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html
State supporters of terrrorism http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195547.htm
Statute toppling - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDu7bXqx8Ig
OIL
• The Persian Gulf produced 28% of the world’s
oil supply and the countries in the region hold
55% of the world’s crude oil reserves.
• One fifth of the world oil supply transits the
Straight of Hormuz, which is 600 miles long, as
narrow as 34 miles and has a 2 mile wide
channel.
• http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/P
ersian_Gulf_lg.jpg
WHY DO WE CARE?
• Support for terrorist groups
1. Hezbollah 2. Hamas
State Sponsors of Terrorism
In order to designate a country as a State Sponsor
of Terrorism, the Secretary of State must determine
that the government of such country has repeatedly
provided support for acts of international terrorism.
State Sponsors of Terrorism
• In order to designate a country as a State
Sponsor of Terrorism, the Secretary of State
must determine that the government of such
country has repeatedly provided support for
acts of international terrorism.
• Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria
• In the recent past – Libya and Iraq
• Who might be added? Removed?
The 5th Amendment vs. Drone Strikes
• --No person shall be held to answer for a capital,
or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a
presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, ..
• --The confidential memo lays out a three-part
test that would make targeted killings of
American lawful: The suspect poses an imminent
threat, capture must be “infeasible, and the strike
must be conducted according to “law of war
principles.”
WHY DO WE CARE?
• Regional Stability
1. Afghanistan
2. Iraq
3. Syria
Not to mention all the countries with a Sunni
majority like Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states
WHY DO WE REALLY CARE?
• It has a nuclear program
1. But what does that mean?
2. It has signed the NPT-obligations and rights.
3. Capability vs. intent.
WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS AND THE
COSTS OF THOSE OPTIONS?
According to the FAS study:
1. Increasing pressure - $64 billion
2. Isolation and a blockade - $325 billion
3. Surgical strikes - $713 billion
4. Comp. bombing campaign - $1.2 trillion
5. Full scale invasion - $1.7 trillion
6. De-escalation – benefit of $60 billion
Weighing the Benefits and Costs of
Military Action Against Iran
• Extended military strikes would set back the
program up to 4 years.
• Regime change would require occupation and
a cost equal to Iraq and Afghanistan
• Israel could probably not do it alone
The benefits of military action
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Damage Iran’s enrichment facilities
Damage Iran’s military capabilities
Demonstrate US seriousness and credibility
Help to deter nuclear weapons proliferation
Potential costs
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Direct Iranian retaliation against the U.S.
Iranian strikes against Israel
Indirect retaliation
Breakdown of global solidarity against Iran
Increased likelihood of Iran becoming a nuclear
state
• Global political and economic instability
• Damage to the US global reputation
• Unify Iranians behind their government
Time to Attack Iran?
• Iran operatives were planning to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to
the US.
• Sanctions are not working and Iranian nuclear development continues, but
an attack could convince them to give up their program.
• The U.S. will have to keep forces in the region for years to come to contain
Iran.
• Civilian casualties come be limited.
• The US could reassure the Iranian government its intention was not
regime change.
• The US could draw red lines to prevent Iranian retaliation
• The US should conduct a surgical strike, absorb any retaliation and then
seek quickly to de-escalate.
IF WE ATTACK-•
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Who is going to join us?
Will it be legal?
What will the rest of the world think?
What are the unknown unknowns?
Who is pushing for an attack?