When you are born matters
Steven Donohue
EMAS
June 2013
When you are born matters: The
impact of Date of Birth on Child
Cognitive Outcomes in England –
Crawford, Dearden, Meghir, IFS, 2007
Month of Birth and Education –
Schools Analysis and Research Division, DfE, 2010
When you are born matters:
evidence for England – Crawford, Dearden,
Greaves, IFS, 2013
“10,000 summer-born children per year
fail to achieve [5A*-C including English
and Maths] as GCSE, which influences
their chances of progressing to A-levels
and beyond, purely... due to the timing of
their birth...”
2012 GCSE gaps (5A*-C inc E and M, percentage
points, England)
Not SEN - SEN
46.8
Not FSM - FSM
26.3
Girls - Boys
9.5
September born – August born
7.8
Asian ethnicity – all pupils
3.9
First language English – Not Eng.
3.0
Four research questions
1.What’s the extent of the “birth penalty” across
phases?
2.What’s the impact of admissions policies in YR?
3.Why does the “birth penalty” exist?
4.How does it affect subgroups (e.g. August birth
date + FSM)?
Data
Attainment data from:
EYFS
KS1
Standardised APS
KS2
% pupils reaching expected level
KS3
% pupils exceeding expected level
KS4
KS5
+ pupil characteristics from school census
Cohorts
No single cohort for which there is data at all levels, so:
Cohort
Data
1
10% of children born in 97/98
and 98/99
EYFS, KS1
2
All children born in 90/91 and
91/92
KS1, KS2, KS3
3
All children born in 85/86,
86/87 and 87/88
KS2, KS3, KS4, KS5
Group 2 Mean standardised APS at KS1, KS2, KS3
Group 3 Mean standardised APS at KS2, KS3, KS4
Wiltshire – KS2 L4+
Cohort
September August
born (%)
born (%)
Gap (Wilts) Gap
(England)
2010
79.0
64.2
14.8
8.8
2011
80.0
71.6
8.4
11.1
2012
83.2
72.1
11.1
9.1
Wiltshire – KS4 5 A*-C inc. English and Maths GCSE
Cohort
September July born
born (%)
(%)
Gap (Wilts) Gap
(England)
2010
63.1
50.3
12.8
7.8
2011
65.3
54.1
11.2
7.7
2012
60.7
57.5
3.2
7.8
Key findings
What’s the extent of the “birth penalty”
across phases?
“...there is evidence of a significant August
birth penalty in all outcomes at every
age... it declines over time, but is still
significant at ages 16 and 18, when
students are making decisions about
employment and/or future study.”
“significant” = significant at the 1% level
Key findings
What’s the extent of the “birth penalty”
across phases?
At the age of 11, August-born girls are
25% more likely to have statemented SEN
and 72% more likely to have nonstatemented SEN compared to
September-born girls. The figures for boys
are 14% and 46% respectively.
Key findings
Socio-emotional development
Dark green – Millennium Cohort Study; Light green – Avon Longitudinal Study
Key findings
Self-perception
Light green – Avon Longitudinal Study; Grey – Longitudinal Study of YP in England
Key findings
Adult outcomes
• those born at the end of the academic year are
significantly more likely to be unemployed than those
born earlier
• no significant difference for earnings/hr
• no significant differences for occupation, household
income, intergenerational mobility, health status or
mental well-being.
Key findings
What’s the impact of admissions policies
in YR?
“August-born children are slightly better
off (and certainly no worse off) if they
start school in the September of the
academic year they turn 5... this is likely to
be of greater benefit to girls than to boys.”
Key findings
Why does the “birth penalty” exist?
Key findings
Why does the “birth penalty” exist?
Key findings
How does it affect subgroups?
FSM
Children from deprived areas
Children of different ethnic origins
“...the most important finding is the lack
of significant differences amongst the
majority of subgroups considered.”
Options
“...somebody always has to be
youngest...”
IFS’s Options
1. Age normalisation of test results
2. Testing when ready
3. Changes to free nursery provision and
flexibility over school starting ages
4. Other options
a. YR admissions policies
b. Teacher training
c. Investigating successful schools
Assessment
As part of our reforms to the national curriculum , the
current system of ‘levels’ used to report children’s
attainment and progress will be removed. It will not be
replaced... Schools will be able to introduce their own
approaches to formative assessment, to support pupil
attainment and progression.
What opportunities might this open up for summerborn children?
Assessment
“Assessing when ready” – schools could report on
what age pupils reached a level of achievement (like
the EYFS profile...)
Now
Assessed at a single point in time (say June
Y5)
Levels reported without reference to age –
Sandra L4a, Jamal L4c
In future?
Continuous assessment
Age at which level was reached is reported –
Sandra reached L4c aged 10.2, Jamal
reached L4c aged 9.9
Auditing
What’s happening in your school?
• Look at attainment...
• Look at average age of groups (e.g. top set Maths, bottom set
Maths...)
It’s easy to work out how many days old someone is using Excel!
Teacher awareness
There’s some evidence teachers underrate
summer-born children.
Summer-born children are
more likely to have KS2
teacher assessments that
are lower than their
English SATs results
“...teacher assessments might penalise the performance of relatively younger pupils in
the cohort...”
School to school
Are any schools able to identify
that their summer-born pupils are
doing well?
Are any schools able to identify
specific pieces of good practice
that have made a difference?
http://tinyurl.com/summerborn