RESEARCHING
REGIONAL
WORKFORCE GAPS
An overview and sample of the micro- and
macro-level uses of demand-driven talent
development
ABOUT EMSI
• EMSI provides employment data and economic analysis via
web tools and customized consulting projects and reports.
• We’ve produced more than 1,000 comprehensive impact
analyses for colleges and universities.
• Analyst, our labor market research tool, is used by more than
3,500 professionals in higher education, workforce, economic
development and the private sector.
• Career Coach, our career guidance tool, has been implemented
by many colleges, universities, and workforce boards to help
jobseekers and students.
WHAT IS A REGIONAL EDUCATION
SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS?
Education supply gap analyses assess the current postsecondary
education talent supply based on education program
completion, which is then compared to the demand for
occupations that align to postsecondary programs.
WHY USE A REGIONAL EDUCATION
SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS?
Supply gap analyses can be used by various stakeholders for
different purposes. For example:
1. Community Colleges and Universities may conduct a gap
analysis to determine if programs are aligned to community
and industry needs
2. Workforce Boards may use gap analyses to evaluate regional
talent development across multiple institutions and seek to
better align workforce development programs
3. State Departments of Education and/or Labor may use gap
analyses for long-term planning, assessment, and targeting
of talent development to support specific initiatives
INSIGHTS ON OVERSUPPLY AND
UNDERSUPPLY
Oversupply (aka Surplus): may lead to higher attrition rates (i.e.,
brain drain). The region is educating a workforce that is leaving
after program completion because of a lack of job opportunities.
Undersupply (aka Gap): may lead to missed opportunities for
economic growth and put stress on local businesses to find the
necessary talent elsewhere.
POTENTIAL POLICY OPTIONS
Oversupply:
1. Education institutions can scale back potentially costly
programs, due to excess workforce supply;
2. Economic developers and business developers have the
opportunity to court businesses employing the types of
occupations found in the oversupply of program
completers.
POTENTIAL POLICY OPTIONS
Undersupply:
1. Education institutions can develop/market programs to
increase enrollment in the desired programs/degrees;
2. When working with dislocated workers, workforce boards
can target programs that align with “in-demand”
occupations.
STEPS TO COMPLETE AN ANALYSIS
Define
Region
Select Target
Occupations
SOC-to-CIP
Crosswalk
Collect
Occupation
Data
Education
Completion
• Determine geographic boundaries for region
• Determine education institutions to measure within region
• In-demand occupation
• Occupations corresponding to postsecondary ed/training
• Occupations aligning to specific initiatives (e.g., STEM)
• Map occupations to education programs
• For reference, see: www.xwalkcenter.org
• Determine annual occupation demand (e.g., new and replacement jobs), or
• Measure demand through some other format (e.g., historical/current job postings)
• Collect education completion data
• Compare to occupation demand
SAMPLE OUTPUT:
COLLEGE OF WESTERN IDAHO
High Demand Programs
CIP
Title
52.0408
General Office Occupations and Clerical
Services
custom1
Marketing Management
49.0205
52.0401
52.1701
15.1202
Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle
Operation
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial
Science, General
Insurance
Computer Technology/Computer Systems
Technology
2008
Grads
2009
Jobs
09-'19
Change
%
Change
Annual
Openings
Median
Hourly
Wage ($)
Gap/
Surplus
$13.58
(674)
$18.64
(454)
3
15,999
2,790
17%
677
14
12,185
1,971
16%
468
17
9,872
1,628
16%
329
$13.59
(312)
0
5,887
1,197
20%
213
$14.81
(213)
0
3,365
1,020
30%
169
$19.88
(169)
7
2,585
518
20%
128
$18.63
(121)
Low Demand Programs
51.1613
Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training
(LPN, LVN, Cert, Dipl, AAS)
136
1,218
387
32%
72
$19.38
64
51.0601
Dental Assisting/Assistant
203
881
439
50%
59
$14.44
144
[1]This
program did not have any approximate match among all CIP codes. EMSI created a custom program name and CIP code match.
Sports Management
Journalism
Secondary Education (Science)
Creative Writing
Professional Writing
Business Administration Management
Information Systems
Human Resources
Early Childhood Education
Business Administration
Accounting
SAMPLE OUTPUT: MULTI-STATE
(OH, PA, NY) TARGET PROGRAM
ASSESSMENT
6,000
Average Annual Openings
5,000
Average Annual Graduates and Completers
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
SAMPLE OUTPUT: NATIONAL ENERGY WORKFORCE
OTHER METHODS
• Stay tuned! EMSI is experimenting with other ways to
measure skill gaps:
• Growth of jobs and wages over time
• Growth of KSAs over time
• Considering job switchers and unemployed workers
• Potential for shifting low-demand workers into high-demand
positions
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Please refer to EMSI’s white paper:
http://www.economicmodeling.com/2011/06/28/addressingregional-skill-gaps/
QUESTIONS
If you would like further information or assistance in developing
your own Education Supply Gap Analysis, please contact:
Josh Wright
jwright@economicmodeling.com