SCRAP HEAP STARTERS
Do Wounded Pitchers Represent an
Opportunity for Value in Free Agency?
HEALTHY PITCHERS ARE EXPENSIVE
• Examples of market prices for healthy free agent
starters at each tier:
• +1 WAR: Chen (2/9M), Harang (2/12M)
• +2 WAR: Kuroda (1/10M), Pavano (2/16M)
• +3 WAR: Buehrle (4/58M), Dempster (4/52)
• +4 WAR: Wilson (5/77M), Lackey (5/83)
• +5 WAR: Lee (5/120M), Sabathia (7/161M)
ADVANTAGES OF SIGNING PITCHERS WITH
MEDICAL QUESTION MARKS
• Short Term Contracts
• Lower Cost
• Mid-Season Trade Chips
• Delay Service Time for Top Prospects
• Create Spring Training Competition
DISADVANTAGES OF SIGNING PITCHERS WITH
MEDICAL QUESTION MARKS
• Larger Variance
• Unpredictable Availability
• Limited Long Term Benefit
• Increased Workload for Training Staff
2011 STARTERS WHO SIGNED ONE YEAR FREE
AGENT CONTRACTS LAST WINTER
BREAKDOWN OF PITCHERS IN SAMPLE
• Hiroki Kuroda Excluded – Special Circumstance
• Brandon Webb, Justin Duchscherer, and Ryan
Rowland-Smith don’t appear on the list – they didn’t
pitch in the Majors last year
• 19 total starters signed one year MLB deals
• Base salaries estimated at $41 million
• Incentives push actual payout to ~$50 million
PRODUCTION OF PITCHERS IN SAMPLE
• 350 Starts, 2,073 Innings Pitched, 5.93 IP/GS
• 6.8% BB%, 15.9% K%, 42.7% GB%
• 103 ERA-, 105 FIP-, 104 xFIP-
• +23.7 WAR
• $2.11 Million Per WAR
• +1.8 WAR per Roster Spot Absorbed
2011 MLB STARTING PITCHER AVERAGES
• 6.03 IP/GS: -0.10 difference
• 7.5% BB%: +0.7 difference
• 17.5% K%: -1.6 difference
• 44.4% GB%: -1.7 difference
• 103 ERA-, 101 FIP-, 100 xFIP• +2.5 WAR per Roster Spot : -0.7 difference
• $4.5 Million Per War: -2.4M difference
ONE YEAR CONCLUSIONS
• SPs on one year deals were the best value proposition
in free agency of any player type in baseball in 2011.
• Brandon McCarthy provided the highest return on
investment of any player signed last winter, and the A’s
still have him for 2012 as well.
• Only 8 of 19 (42%) were “busts”, and they cost a grand
total of $17 million between them.
• Two Year Contract Guys: Pavano, Correia, de la Rosa,
and Westbrook cost $59M combined.
WHAT ABOUT PREVIOUS YEARS?
• Injury Information is Imperfect and Difficult to Obtain
• Not All Injuries Are Created Equal
• Reporting on Incentives is Inconsistent
• Effects of Global Economic Struggles In 2009
• Shift in Run Environment
• Went Back to 2006-2007 Offseason
2006 OFFSEASON
• Six pitchers signed one year MLB deals after spending
at least 15 days on the disabled list during 2006
season: David Wells, Randy Wolf, Wade Miller, John
Thomson, Tomo Ohka, Tony Armas
• Wells was going into age 44 season, so he’s something
of an outlier
• Six pitchers combined for +2.1 WAR and $18M salary
• Wolf was 44% of that total by himself
RANDY WOLF
• 2006 numbers were atrocious
• 57 IP, 12.6% BB%, 16.4% K%, 37.3% GB%
• 121 ERA-, 139 FIP-, 119 xFIP-
• -0.3 WAR
• $8 million contract from the Dodgers
• He performed much better in ’07 (+1.7 WAR), but only
in 103 innings pitched
MARK MULDER AND WOODY WILLIAMS
• Mulder got 2/13 from Cardinals despite injury plagued
2006 season (93 IP with 7.14 ERA).
• Williams got 2/12.5 from Astros at age 40 to leave
Petco Park. Huge gap between ERA (3.65) and xFIP
(5.09) suggested trouble.
• Mulder pitched 12 innings in 2007-2008.
• Williams threw 188 replacement level innings in 2007,
was released, and didn’t pitch in 2008.
2007 OFFSEASON
• Five pitchers signed one year MLB deal after spending 15+
days on DL in 2007: Randy Wolf, Kenny Rogers, Mark
Redman, Matt Clement, Mark Prior :(
• Those five combined for +3.2 WAR and $16M salary
• Wolf took a 40% pay cut despite a bounce back season
• Kenny Rogers threw 63 innings at age 42, then got $8
million guaranteed for his age 43 season.
• Only multi-year deal given to SP that winter: Carlos Silva…
2008 OFFSEASON
• Nine pitchers signed one year MLB deal after spending
15+ days on DL in 2008: Randy Johnson, John Smoltz,
Andy Pettitte, Brad Penny, Daniel Cabrera, Mike
Hampton, Carl Pavano, Tom Glavine, Bartolo Colon
• Those nine combined: +12.5 WAR and $32.5M salary
• Remove Pettitte: +8.8 WAR for $27M
• Durable starters Burnett ($83M) and Lowe ($60M) were
handsomely rewarded.
2009 OFFSEASON
• Nine pitchers signed one year MLB deal after spending
15+ days on DL in 2009: Ben Sheets, Rich Harden,
Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Chien-Ming Wang, Justin
Duchscherer, Scott Olsen, Erik Bedard, Claudio Vargas
• Those nine combined for +5.0 WAR and $35M salary
• Durable starters Pineiro and Marquis got 2/15M each.
Durable starter Lackey got 6/83M
• Randy Wolf finally earned multi-year deal and
successfully made it on every slide in this presentation
WHAT ABOUT THIS PAST WINTER?
• Paul Maholm (4.75M), Erik Bedard (4.5M), Freddy
Garcia (4M), and Chien-Ming Wang (4M) set market for
wounded starters
• Roy Oswalt didn’t like that price, still sitting at home
• Mark Buehrle rode durability to 4/58 from Miami
• Jeff Francis (MILB deal) and Chris Capuano (2/10M)
show how market values strikeouts. If your arm is
going to hurt, miss bats when it doesn’t.
CAN WE DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS?
• Price of damaged goods SPs certainly lower in 20112012 than in prior years
• These pitchers were generally not very good from
2007-2009, and were rarely worth the contracts they
were given
• Price drop suggests a market correction as a reaction
to recent failures.
• Despite success of damaged pitchers in 2011, no
positive reaction to pursue this pitcher type for 2012.
WHO SHOULD PURSUE WOUNDED STARTERS?
• Contenders with large ability to absorb risk
• Non-contenders who could use significant value pieces
• Teams with top prospects who may be ready by May
• Teams in pitcher’s parks who can offer comfortable
place to rehab and re-establish value
• In short – almost every team in baseball.
• Wounded starters are lottery tickets, but ones worth
buying at current prices.