L/O/G/O
Modernization and Fertility:
A Critical Essay
Richard A. Easterlin
Presented by: Sundari Budiani
Contents
1
Pendahuluan
2
Pengertian Modernisasi
3
Hub. antara Modernisasi & Fertilitas
4
Theoritical and Empirical Implications
Pendahuluan
● What is the most challenging problem in
the social study of human fertility?
It is the causes of the shift from high to
low fertility during the process of
modernization
● Preceding papers supply, demand, or
regulation costs
● Present paper clarify the conceptual
links between modernization & fertility
The Nature of Modernization
Modernization defined as transformation in:
1
2
3
Economic: sustained raise in real output per capita.
& changes in techniques of producing, transporting
& distributing goods
Sosial & demographic: involves significant alterations
in fertility, mortality & migration; in place of residence;
in family size & structure; educational system; & public
health services.
Human personality: increase openness to new
experience, increased independence from parental
authority.
Conceptual
links
between
Modernization & Fertility Behavior
Basic Determinants  Proximate Determinants  Children Ever Born
Proximate Determinants
Reg. Cost
(RC)
Basic
Determinants
Demand of
Children (Cd)
Supply of
Children (Cn)
Deliberate Fert
Control Var.
Other Proximate
Determinants
Children
Ever Born
Links from Modernization to Potential
Supply, Demand & Reg. Cost
Factors Trough Which Fertility Control is Influenced
Aspects of
Modernization
Demand (Cd)
Tastes
Income
Supply (Cn)
Prices
Better public health &
med care
Growth in formal
education
-
-
Urbanization
-
-
New consumer goods
-
New fert. Control
methods
Nat.
Fert
Surv.
Prospe
cts
+
+
+
+
Reg. Cost (RC)
Subj.
costs
Market
costs
-
-
-
-
-
-
Links PS, D & RC to Fert. Control &
Fertility
 Modernization  lower the demand for children
introduces new goods and life styles (the households shift the
expenditure toward new purposes inc. Having & raising
children).
 Modernization  fertility control, e.g: modern condom and
improved methods of induced abortion, pill and IUD.
 Modernization process shifts typical household from a
situation where childbearing is a matter ‘taken for granted’
to one that poses difficult problems of individual choice
regarding the limitation of family size.
 Modernization shifts motivation of individual couples and
regulation costs push them to practice deliberate family
size limitation.
Empirical Findings
Surviving
Children per
Married Woman
Beginning of fertility
decline in A
Beginning of fertility
decline in B
CdB
CnA = CnB
CdA
Time
Hypothetical Trends in Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd)
in Two Countries and the Timing of Fertility Decline
The Trend in Fertility Differentials by
Socioeconomic Status (SES)
(a) Premodern
Surviving
Children per
Married
Woman
(b) Early Modern
Cd
Cn
Cd
Cn
Low
Education
High
(c) Premodern
Surviving
Children per
Married Woman
Low
Education
High
(d) Early Modern
Cd
Cn
Cd
Cn
15-19
Age
40-44
15-19
Age
40-44
Hypothetical Relationship Between Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd)
and Education and Age in Premodern and Early Modern Settings
L/O/G/O
Thank You!