SLEEPWALKING WITH THE BOMB
Why we are sleepwalking towards
nuclear catastrophe, and how we
can minimize that growing prospect
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
WHY THIS BOOK NOW?
• “UNTHINKABLE”?: THINK TRILLION $ RED INK
• TOP-VIEW HISTORY OF NUCLEAR AGE
• STUDIES: FAMILIAR FACES, PLACES & CASES
• LESSONS LEARNED CAN GUIDE N-POLICY
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
THE RUSH TO NUCLEAR ZERO
• HERMAN KAHN’s “CLANDESTINE CACHE”
• “SETTING AN EXAMPLE” FALLACY
• NON-NUCLEAR SUBSTITUTE DETERRENCE
• HOSTILE PROLIFERATORS: CH, NK, PAK, IRAN
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
FROM “TRINITY” TO TEHRAN
• ALL-OUT ARMS RACE: 1945-1967
• ARMS CONTROL PRIMACY: 1968-1992
• FASTER PROLIFERATION: 1993 - TODAY
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
ALL-OUT ARMS RACE: 1945-1967
• TECHNOLOGY BREAKOUT: 1945 – 1957
• 1st STRIKE VULNERABILITY: 1958 - 1967
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
ARMS CONTROL PRIMACY: 1968-1992
• ARMS CONTROL SEPARATE: 1968 – 1979
• ARMS CONTROL “LINKAGE”: 1980 – 1992
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
FASTER PROLIFERATION: 1993 - TODAY
• ROGUE BREAKOUT: 1993 – 2001
• THREAT BREAKOUT: 2002 - TODAY
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
USSR/RUSSIA: LINKAGE
• RACE FOR THE “SUPER”
• “CRISIS STABILITY” & “DELICATE BALANCE”
• N-GAMBLE: BERLIN, CUBAN MISSILE CRISES
• LESSON: CANNOT WALL-OFF ARMS CONTROL
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
US: AGREEMENTS WITH BAD ACTORS
• CRISIS AGREMENTS: HOT-LINE
• “MAD” AGREEMENTS: SALT SHAKERS CHEAT
• INF & START/NEW: DEEP CUTS/NUNN-LUGAR
• LESSON: GENUINE COMMON INTEREST ONLY
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
IRAN: NEXT CUBAN MISILE CRISIS
• KENNEDY, KHRUSHCHEV & CASTRO
• IRAN’s “BREAKOUT” OPTION
• PRINCE TURKI’s POST-IRAN ARMS RACE
• LESSON: MUST END REVOLUTIONARY REGIME
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
NORTH KOREA: “DYING STING”
• DEAN RUSK’s TRAGIC LINE-DRAWING
• ARTILLERY: SEOUL HELD HOSTAGE
• NUKES: ASIA, US HELD HOSTAGE
• LESSON: NUKES = SURVIVAL INSURANCE
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
CHINA: YOM KIPPUR ‘73 AGAIN?
• PRC NUKES: MINIMUM DETERRENCE, NOT
• WESTERN PACIFIC: “AREA DENIAL” & 1973
• “MIRROR-IMAGING” PERIL: USSR, PRC
• PRC “UNDERGROUND GREAT WALL”: WHY?
• LESSON: NUCLEAR BALANCE CAN MATTER
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
INDO-PAK SUBCONTINENT
• IKE’s & A. GOLDBERG’s “ATOMS/PEACE” FOLLY
• INDIA: “BUDDHA SMILES” DECEPTION
• PAKISTAN: A. Q. KHAN PURLOINED PROGRAM
• LESSON: COMMERCIAL = ALMOST THE BOMB
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC I
• URANIUM ORE = 99.3% U-238 & 0.7% U-235
• 140 ATOMS ORE = 139 U-238 + 1 U-235
• U-238 “FISSIONABLE”; U-235 “FISSILE”
• “BOMB” = “DEVICE” OR “WEAPON”
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC II
• LEU = 3.5% ENRICHED; COMMERCIAL POWER
• MEU = 20% ENRICHED; MEDICAL RESEARCH
• HEU = 93% ENRICHED; FUELS NUCLEAR BOMB
• YIELD: HIROSHIMA = 14KT; NAGASAKI = 21KT
• YIELD: WTC ‘93 2/3T; WTC 9/11/2001 = 0.1KT
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC III
• 140 ATOMS ORE = 139 U-238 + 1 U-235
• REMOVE 112 U-238 = 27 U-238 – 1 U235 (LEU)
• REMOVE 23 U-238 = 4 U-238 + 1 U-235 (MEU)
• REMOVE 4 U-238 = 1 U-235 (100% HEU)
• MILITARY WEAPONS-GRADE HEU = 93% U-235
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC IV
• SEPARATE: U-235 ISOTOPE; P-239 CHEMICAL
• URANIUM MATERIALS RULE: 10-10-10-10
• URANIUM ENRICHMENT TIME RULE: 11-1-1-1
• “N-YIELD CURVE” RULE: 1-5-10-25-50
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARTIHMETIC V
• CRUDE URANIUM BOMB: 60 KG U-235 HEU
• WELL-DESIGNED URANIUM BOMB: 15 KG HEU
• DESIGNER PLUTONIUM BOMB: 6 KG P-239
• TERROR DEVICE: 1% HIROSHIMA = 200 WTC I
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
PROLIFERATION ARITHMETIC VI
• U-235 BOMB: GUN TRIGGER – EASY
• P-239 BOMB: IMPLOSION TRIGGER - HARD
• P-239: SUPER-SPEED, -SMALL, -SYMMETRY
• POST-9/11 THREAT FOCUS: CRUDE A-DEVICE
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
IRAQ: WMD NON-INTEL
• GULF WAR: CLOSER THAN WE THOUGHT
• IRAQI FREEDOM: THE OPPOSITE MISTAKE
• PEARL HARBOR: 1932 WAR GAME & 1941 REAL WAR
• “MILLENIUM CHALLENGE” 2002: “UNFAIR” TACTICS
• NORTH KOREA: 2002 VERBAL BOAST & 2006 ACTUAL TEST
• LESSON: INTEL CANNOT RELIABLY INFORM
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
ALLY PROLIFERATION
• USSR (WW-II ALLY): STALIN’s SECRET
• UK: PRIME USSR TARGET UNTIL 1960s
• FRANCE: PARIS, NEW YORK, MOSCOW
• CHINA: MAO, KOREA & SINO-SOVIET SPLIT
• LESSON: SUPERPOWER UMBRELLAS LEAK
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
STAMPEDING DISARMAMENT
• “CASTLE BRAVO” TO “TSAR BOMBA”: ’54 - ’61
• TEST BANS: 1963 (WHERE) & 1974 (YIELD)
• “NEUTRON BOMB” TO NUKE FREEZE: ‘78 – ’83
• TEST MORATORIA: ROGUES IGNORE
• LESSON: WESTERN GOV’TS MUST MAKE CASE
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Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
DISARMERS: VOLUNTARY & INVOL.
• UKRAINE, BELARUS, KHAZAKHSTAN: FREEDOM
• BRAZIL, ARGENTINA: ECONOMICS
• SOUTH AFRICA: END ISOLATION
• LIBYA: “SHOCK & AWE”
• IRAQ 1981 & SYRIA 2007: ISRAEL MILITARY PREVENTION
• LESSON: NEGOTIATIONS WON’T STOP ROGUES
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
EMP: SMALL POWER ACE-IN-HOLE
• E1, E2, E3: FRY SYSTEM ELECTRONICS
• WORST CASE: US RETURNS TO 1875
• IRAN: ‘98 EMP-MODE BARGE MISSILE LAUNCH
• POWER GRID REMEDIATION: CHEAP INSURANCE
• LESSON: NO SINGLE-/LOW PT. MEGA-RISKS
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013
WAKING UP
• “MAD”: DECLARATORY, NOT ACTUAL POLICY
• ZERO: “REACH FOR THE STARS” FANTASIES
• APOCALYPTIC TRINITY: KILL US/THEM, QUIT
• LESSON: NUCLEAR POLICY ALWAYS
DEFENSIVE
4/22/13
Copyright John C. Wohlstetter 2013