Population and places through
time: Grid-square data and the NILS
Ian Shuttleworth
QUB and NILS-RSU
Outline
• What data resources are available to profile
local communities?
• How can change through time be mapped for
small areas with available data?
• How can these data resources be accessed?
• What are your information needs and how
might they be met?
• Focus on the Grid-Square Resource and the
Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS)
The Grid-Square Resource
• 1km (everywhere 1971-2001) and 100m cells
(Belfast 1971-1991, everywhere 2001)
• Geographically standard and consistent spatial
units through time – unlike other census
output geographies – which can change
between Censuses
• Counts of population for all cells; if more than
8 households and more than 25 individuals
then other counts
The Grid-Square Resource
• Topic counts: for example, housing tenure, car
ownership, age group, community background
• Profile small areas 1971, 1991, 2001 (and next
year) 2011 plus change between these years
• Data can be obtained from NISRA
• Standard NI Census output but not as easy to use
as other outputs
• Requires GIS capability and also understanding
variable definition in various Censuses
1971: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares
1991: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares
2001: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares
The NILS
• Established in 2006; designed to examine change
through time, mortality, fertility, mobility
• Based on a 28% sample (104/365 birthdates) of
health card registrations which is linked to the
2001 Census, and soon the 2011 Census, and
then the 1991 Census (c500,000 people)
• Plus births and deaths in intervening years
• Possible by 2014 (and 2001-2011 by late 2013) to
examine population and social changes 19912011
The NILS
• 28% sample is large enough to consider small
areas (SOAs) or population groups in context
• Data accessed via the NILS-RSU
– http://www.qub.ac.uk/researchcentres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/AvailableData/
• Staff can help in understanding more about
the data and the range of relevant possible
projects that might be of interest
The NILS
• Selected current projects
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Project 059: The Dynamics of Cultural Integration – A Longitudinal Case Study on the Fertility and demand
for maternity services of the two Communities in Northern Ireland using NILS.Further details
Project 058: Evaluating current area level indicators for measuring disadvantage. Further details
Project 055: Long-term illness, poor health and housing (im)mobility. Further details
Project 054: Current religious status and impacts on overall self-reported health, mortality risk and
variations in cause-specific mortality: a comparison study between individuals with an existing affiliation to a
religious denomination and those without. Further details
Project 053: Vital Events Standard Outputs: Using the NILS and the NIMS to Produce Annual Standard
Outputs of Births & Deaths by Demographic, Socio-Economic and Area Characteristics. Further details
Project 052: Exploring the relationship between deprivation measured at individual, household and area
level and cancer incidence and survival inNorthern Ireland: An exemplar linkage study using the NILS and
NICR databases. Further details
Project 051: How accurate and timely are health registrations address data? An assessment using the
NILS. Further details
Project 050: Forecasting Fertility in Northern Ireland using a Time Varying Coefficients Model. Further details
Project 049: Prevalence and patterns of antidepressant use among women of reproductive age in Northern
Ireland. Further details
Project 046: A pharmaco-epidemiological study of Anxiolytic and Antidepressant Drug uptake in Northern
Ireland. Further details
Project 044: An analysis of health status, mobility, demographic and socio-economic characteristics by
occupational group. Further details
Project 043: Commuting, migration and health – a longitudinal study in Northern Ireland. Further details
The NILS
• Example use of the NILS – a possible research
project
• Questions:
– Who moves into and out of socially-deprived
areas?
– What happens to (a) people who move out of
socially-deprived areas and (b) people who move
into socially deprived areas after (i) 5 years (ii) 10
years?
The NILS
• The NILS could be used by Autumn 2013 to answer
these questions by:
– Locating people in 2001 and profiling their social,
household and demographic characteristics using the 2001
Census
– Health card registration data (address changes) could then
by used to locate them in 2005 and 2011 to find out if
people had moved and, if so where they had moved to
– Then data from the 2011 Census could be used to their
social, household and demographic characteristics – were
moves out deprived areas, for instance, associated with a
greater chance of employment in 2011
Area Change - Policy Intervention
2001
Births Deaths Births Deaths
Least Deprived
Most Deprived
2011
Least Deprived
+ Migration
- Effects
Most Deprived
Area Change - No Policy Intervention
2001
Births Deaths Births Deaths
Least Deprived
Most Deprived
2011
Least Deprived
+ Migration
- Effects
Most Deprived
Economic Mobility
2001
Births Deaths Births Deaths
2011
In Employment
In Employment
Self-employment
Self-employment
Unemployed
Unemployed
Retired
Retired
Permanently sick
Permanently sick
16+
+ Migration
- Effects
16+
Conclusion
• The Grid-Square Data and the NILS are
powerful resources for understanding
localities and population dynamics
• These resources are publicly funded – they
therefore should be used as widely as possible
for the public good
• There are many different ways to use these
resources
– You might be a consumer of research findings
produced by someone else as part of their work
Conclusion
• Using these resources
– You might commission someone to do specific work
that you define
– You may use the data yourselves
• The NILS-RSU exists to promote the NILS data and
to help both new and experienced users to
develop and undertake projects
– One of its purposes is to build capacity in using the
NILS
• More capacity building is needed to make use of
the Grid-Square Resource
Conclusion
• Using the Grid-Square resource
– The data can be accessed from the NISRA website
– Academics or other experienced data users may
be able to advise on mapping and using the data
to examine change through time
Contact information
• The NILS
– Ian Shuttleworth (i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk)
– Michael Rosato (m.rosato@qub.ac.uk)
– Joanne Cartland (joanne.cartland@dfpni.gov.uk)
• The Grid-Square Resource
– Ian Shuttleworth (i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk) –
first point of contact