Economic Data & Analysis
What are we Trying to do?
What are we trying to do?
• Export goods and services
• Import money
• Circulate money internally
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• Many sources of data
– U.S. Census
– U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
– Bureau of Economic Analysis
– N.C. Employment Securities Commission
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• U.S. Census
– County Business Patterns (Annual)
– Economic Census (Every 5 years)
• Census
• Commodity flow survey
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept. of Labor)
• Bureau of Economic Analysis (Dept. of
Commerce)
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• State of North Carolina
– NCESC
• Alternate at bls for MSAs
– NC Department of Revenue
• Research and data
Doing Intelligence
• Need some indicators of economic activity
– Example, WNC Economic Index
• Current Indicators
– Employment
– Unemployment Rate
• Leading Indicators
– Building Permits (Residential)
– Initial Claims for Unemployment
• Creation of a tracking “index”
– Actual number is meaningless
– Trend of number is meaningful
Doing Intelligence
• Descriptive information
– Sectoral (disaggregate)
– Employment (aggregate)
• Analytical information
– Multipliers
– Location Quotients
– Shift/Share Analysis
Employment Multipliers
• Total Employment / Export Employment
• A multiplier tells us how many jobs are
created (or lost) when we attract (or lose)
employment in our community
• Easy to identify total employment
– What about “export” employment?
 1 
Percent Export= 1
100
LQ


The Location Quotient
• Identifying “export” sectors
• Comparing shares of local employment by
sector with a “self-sufficient” economy
– Usually, national economy
– Can use other levels in hierarchy, but
interpretations change
Location Quotient
% of Local Emp. in Sector X
Location Quotient =
% of National Emp. in Sector X
• Let’s go to the spreadsheet & page 10 of
handout…
Shift-Share Analysis
• Measures firm efficiency / competitiveness
• Three parts to shift/share
– National Growth Component (NG)
– Industrial Mix Component (IM)
– Competitive Share Component (CS)
Shift-Share
• National Growth Component
– Assumes local economic growth at national pace
– Estimate of how many local jobs were created
merely to national trends (assuming they are
similar in nature)
• Multiply base year local employment (by
sector), by the national growth rate
Shift-Share
• Industrial Mix Component
• Indicates whether a specific sector is growing
faster (+) or slower (-) national total
employment
• Multiply local employment in each sector by:
– Difference in sector growth rate & total growth
rate for the nation
Shift-Share
• Competitive Share Component
• Determines if local sectors are more
competitive (=) than similar national sectors
• Multiply local sector employment by
– Difference in local sector growth rate & national
sector growth rate
• Let’s go to spreadsheet…
•
ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS
•
The following abbreviations and symbols are used with County Business Patterns data:
•
•
•
–
Represents zero (page image/print only)
D
Withheld to avoid disclosing data of individual companies; data are included in higher level totals
S
Withheld to avoid releasing data that do not meet publication standards; data are included in broader
industry totals.
X
Not applicable
a
0 to 19 employees
b
20 to 99 employees
c 100 to 249 employees
e
250 to 499 employees
f 500 to 999 employees
g
1,000 to 2,499 employees
h
2,500 to 4,999 employees
i
5,000 to 9,999 employees
j
10,000 to 24,999 employees
k 25,000 to 49,999 employees
l
50,000 to 99,999 employees
m
100,000 employees or more
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•