McCormick SRI: Going Deep with
Census Demographic and
Economic Data
Joe Kafchinski
Statistician,
Foreign Trade Division,
U.S. Census Bureau
0:00
National Export Initiative
“The NEI will help meet my
Administration's goal of doubling exports
over the next 5 years”
» President Obama, March 11, 2010
3:00
3.150
3.5
2.742
3.0
2.387
2.078
1.838
1.809
1.5
1.575
2.0
1.575
$Trillions
2.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
Target - 14.7% Annual Growth
2013
2014
Actual
National Export Initiative
•Requires average annual growth rate of 14.7%
•2009 – 2010 growth rate: 16.7%
3:25
Foreign Trade Regulations (FTR)
• Census Bureau’s legal authority to collect
statistics
• Details reporting requirements
– When to file
– What to file
– What is exempt
• Enforcement/Penalties
4:00
Three Types of Exports
Domestic Exports: Grown, produced, or
manufactured in the U.S.
Foreign Exports: Previously
imported into the U.S. and
re-exported (“Re-exports”)
Total Exports:
Domestic Exports + Foreign Exports
Most commonly used
to calculate trade balance
5:42
Export Value
• Free Alongside Ship (F.A.S. Value)
– The price of the goods, plus the cost of
moving the goods to the port alongside the
exporting carrier
– Includes domestic freight and insurance costs
– Excludes international freight and insurance
costs and duties paid
6:34
Export Data Sources
• Automated Export System
• Canadian Data Exchange
7:54
Automated Export System (AES)
• Electronic filing of required export
documentation
• AES, AESDirect, and AES PCLink offer
free and customizable filing options
8:56
Two Types of Imports
• General Imports
• Imports for Consumption
• The difference is in the treatment of goods
entering and leaving bonded warehouses
or Foreign Trade Zones
9:50
Imports that do not enter an FTZ are listed
as both General and Consumption
10:35
When an import exits an FTZ into
the U.S., it is considered an
Import for Consumption
Exports
Imports for Consumption
FTZ
General
Imports
When an import enters an
FTZ, it is considered a General
Import
10:47
Two Values of Imports
• Customs Value
– Price paid for the goods when sold for
exportation to the U.S.
– Excludes International duty, freight, and
insurance
• C.I.F. Value (Cost, Insurance and Freight)
– Customs value + insurance + freight charges
– Still excludes duty paid
11:42
Four Possible Import Values
General Imports
Customs Value
Consumption Imports
Customs Value
Most commonly used
to calculate trade balance
General Imports
C.I.F. Value
Consumption Imports
C.I.F. Value
13:31
Data Sources
• Imports
– Automated Broker Interface (ABI)
– Paper documents (~1%)
– Foreign Trade Zone submissions
14:15
Data Confidentiality
•
•
•
•
Provide summary-level statistics
Will not provide any company information
Disclosure review performed on request
Exceptions are made by the Census
Bureau Director under a National Interest
Determination
15:19
Editing Process
• Initial edits check for impossible situations
during filing
– Incorrect codes
– Vessel shipments through a land border
crossing
– Filers will receive a fatal error and will not be
allowed to be submit the shipment
17:06
Editing Process
• After collection, data are checked for
improbable situations
– Unusual country/product combinations
– Abnormally high or low unit prices or shipping
weights
• These records are flagged for further
investigation by Census Bureau staff
– Corrections are imputed when appropriate
– Companies may be contacted to verify their filings
18:00
Census Trade Data
• Focus is on the physical movement of
goods
• Trade data does not include trade between
the U.S. and U.S. possessions or in-transit
shipments
• Collected using the Harmonized System
• Published monthly
19:46
Trade Data Elements
•
•
•
•
Quantity
Value
Commodity
Trading partner
country
• District/Port
• State
• Method of
transportation
• Special trade
programs
• Dutiable value and
calculated duties
21:07
Classification Systems
System
Source
Purpose
Harmonized System (HS)
U.S. Census Bureau
(exports)
U.S. International Trade
Commission (imports)
Detailed trade data
classification, collection,
and publication
End-use
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Correlate with National
Income Accounts (GDP)
Standard International
Trade Classification (SITC)
United Nations
U.N. International
standard
North American Industry
Classification System
(NAICS)
U.S. Census Bureau
Correlate with U.S.
domestic manufacturing
data
22:00
FT900 - U.S. International Trade
in Goods and Services
• The source of the
U.S. trade balance
• Joint release
between the Census
Bureau and the
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
– The Census Bureau
provides data on goods
– BEA provides data on
services
24:34
Data Availability
Goods/
Services
Commodity
Detail
Country
Detail
Seasonally
Adjusted
Real Dollars
Not
Seasonally
Adjusted
Goods &
Services
Goods
Goods
~100
commodity
categories
5 commodity
categories
~18,000
commodity
categories
None
None
All trading
partners
Adjusts for
price changes
Data as
reported
Smoothes out
Notes
seasonal
patterns
26:15
Jan-08
Seasonally Adjusted
Real Dollars
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
$Billions
Comparison of Seasonally Adjusted, Not
Seasonally Adjusted, and Real Dollar
Export Data (Goods Only)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Not Seasonally Adjusted
27:15
USA Trade Online
®
•
•
•
•
10-digit Harmonized Commodity Data
State Exports and Imports
Port Data
NAICS Data
28:44
Who uses trade data?
• Private Industry
– Analyze their own company’s performance
relative to their peers
• Market share analysis
• Find new/emerging markets
31:54
Who uses trade data?
• Academic/Press
– Analyze impact of trade policies
– Industry/country/region analysis
32:53
Who uses trade data?
• Other Government Agencies
– Key component of GDP
– Monitor trade policies and programs
– National Export Initiative
33:36
34:20
Contact Us
U.S. Census Bureau
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
35:24