Policy Landscape.
Spring 2014
‘What’s happening in
the 14-19 world?’
The (education) world as it appears now
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Increasing policy excitement as 2015 looms
Economy strengthening but Dept budgets facing further cuts
Established reform template with education part of a 3-pronged
Government priority axis
‘Stagnant’ performance of parts of education system cited in series of
recent national/international Reports
80% of 2010 Coalition education agenda now complete, 2014 emerging as
important year for completing building blocks including:
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Transformation of Early Years learning
Implementation of revised National Curriculum
Development of new qualification structures
Completion of Wolf agenda
Adaption of new accountability arrangements
Operation of new school system
Key issues include:
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Performance levels in English and maths
Closing the attainment gap
Skill levels/employability of young people
Nature of the school system
Qualified profession
Stamina levels
The world as the politicians are planning it
Conservatives
Labour
Lib-Dem
Schools
•More demanding qual
system, emphasis on
measurable outputs
•3 routes @16-19 leading
to Tech Bacc
• New accountability
benchmarks
• Professional standards
and PRP for teachers
•Devolved management of
school system
•Standards-based
approach to qual reform
• Fully qualified, licensed
profession
•L3 Tech Bacc with
employer accredited work
exp
•Parent-led Academy
system, stronger local
accountability
•‘World Class’ 14-19
system with equality
between routes, improved
careers system, pre
apprenticeships,
Eng/ma/ICT to L2
FE/Adult Skills
•Gradual adoption of
employer-led
apprenticeships
•Development of
Traineeship route
•Responsive qual system
•Skills training handed over
to employers
•Local market determinism
•New intervention
procedures
•Review of 16-25 system
•3 part rebuild of voc
system: apprenticeships;
14-19 employability; voc
learning
•Support for L3
apprenticeship model,
employer owned
•Licensed ITEs focusing on
int/technician/core skills
•New employer-led
partnerships
•Review of regional skills
•Extension of pupil
premium
•Support for Heywood
Review
•UCAS system for
apprenticeships,
maintenance loans,
improved careers system
as part of strengthened
16-24 offer
HE
•Retaining current fee
regime + differentials
•Focus on STEM and WP
•Gradual opening up of
market
•Revising fee approach
•Potential interest in highlevel voc route and Poly
system
•Market regulation
•Full scale fee review BUT
after 2015
•Single HE regulator
•Visa changes
The world as it often feels like
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A confusing satnav of different instructions
Landmark Papers under Labour
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The
The
The
The
2004
2006
2009
2009
Tomlinson Report, (Created original Labour architecture for 14-19 reform)
Leitch Report, (Spawned the current demand-led skills agenda)
Schools White Paper, (Listed Labour plans on accountability and licence to teach)
Apprenticeship Strategy, (Laid basis of apprenticeship strategy)
Landmark Papers under the Coalition
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The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
The
March 2010 Sykes inquiry (Identified principles for more rigorous qual system)
July 2010 Academies Act (Laid foundations of new school system)
Nov 2010 Schools White Paper (Set out the Gove battle plan for reform)
Dec 2010 Skills Investment Strategy (Reset skills priorities within new austerity climate)
March 2011 Wolf Report (Set the direction for 14-19 VQ reform)
April 2011 Growth Plan (Identified key sectors and growth priorities)
July 2011 HE White Paper (Laid out the new fee-based market model for HE)
Nov 2011 Education Act (Legislated for Gove reforms on quangos, regulation)
July 2012 Education Committee Report (Identified parameters for reform of exam system)
Nov 2012 Richard Report (Set context for latest round of apprenticeship reform)
Jan 2013 Ed Committee Report (Reset KS4 reform around new GCSEs)
April 2013 Rigour and Responsiveness Paper (Refocused BIS strategy on FE performance)
July 2013 Spending Round (Set the funding strategy for post election year)
Oct 2013 Response on secondary school accountability (Confirmed new mechanisms)
Dec 2013 Autumn Statement (Confirmed protection of school funding but not 16-19)
Dec 2013 Listings for Performance Tables (Re-defined the qual offer for 2016 tables)
The world as others see it
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“My own view is that teachers are doing a wonderful job and everything I
can do in order to reinforce their valuable work, I will”
“What really matters is what really happens in the classroom and the
quality of teaching is crucial. The difference between the best and worst
here is big so it should be a rich area for educational policy to address.”
“English schools are not yet among the best in the world”
“The UK performs around the average in maths and reading and above
average in sciences compared with other participating countries”
“Too many young people are failed by a system which is primarily
focussed on getting them through exams rather than nurturing and
developing the whole person”
Schools are losing their sense of humour under piles of data and spread
sheets as head teachers are force to wrestle with an octopus of
government initiatives and reforms “
“The secret is to be useless at school and then get lucky”
The world as it really is now
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Limited funds
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Extensive qualification reform
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Growing levels of scrutiny and accountability
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Data fuelled system development
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Uneasy balance between knowledge and skills
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Coping with new forms of learning
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Trying to meet ever more diverse learner/society needs
Five key challenges
1. Creation of a world-class qualification system
2. Development of more intelligent accountability system
3. Funding provision up to 2015/16 and beyond
4. Revolving system reform
5. Increasing policy attention in the build up to 2015
1. Creation of a world-class qualification
system. The Approach
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Re-build of a simplified and more ‘credible’ qualification system
Based on a mix of international best practice and/or political conviction
Focus on essential knowledge requirements and key outputs
Strict adoption of more traditional assessment methods
Freed up NC but more prescriptive qualification content, endorsed by
external stakeholders
More balanced diet, Progress 8 rather than 5 A*-C
Reduction in testing regime but continuation of national exams at 16 and
18
Learning only complete when defined levels of core quals achieved
Delivered by a more autonomous system
1. Qualification reform
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Revised National Curriculum. 2½ years in the making, 1 yr to prepare
for; (phonics, SPAG, times table, kings and queens, rivers and mountains)
– (From Sept 2014, Eng, maths, science for Yrs 2, 6 and KS4 from Sept 2015)
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GCSE. Not EBaccs but ‘new’ GCSEs, (coursework, resits, modules, tiering,
early entry out; end assessment, sharper grading, benchmarked specs in)
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A Levels. Series of consultations complete, (linear, challenging, HE
endorsed,) de-coupling of AS remaining contentious
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VQs. Revised to meet post Wolf requirements (size, assessment, grading,
content, recognition)
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Apprenticeships. New post Richard vision emerging around employer
ownership, direct funding, minimum durations but questions about young
apprenticeships, standard setting and English/maths requirements
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model emerging)
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Traineeships. Latest model for 16-24 yr olds, bridging programme but no
signature qualification
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1. Qualification reform: GCSEs. Key Points
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Content
– More challenging requirements
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Nov resits
– Restricted to Eng Lang and maths, others may be considered
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Tiering
– Strict subject by subject basis, improved overlap for maths
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Assessment
– Restrictions on course work, resits, early entry
– Requirement for AO strategies
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Grading
– New scale under development
– Continuing interest in providing fuller picture of performance
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Regulation
– Strengthened accreditation process, international referencing
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What to look out for
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Closure of consultation on PoS for KS4 Eng/maths (Feb 2014)
Proposals for new grading scale and standards regulation (Feb 2014)
Development of principles for non EBacc subjects (Spring 2014)
Continuing debate about nature of exams at age 16 (2014)
Impact of new accountability arrangements (2014/15)
1. Qual reform: AS/A levels. Key Points
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Five principles behind current reforms
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Confirmation of purpose
Removal of January assessment opportunity
Decoupling of AS
Adoption of linear assessment
Provision of HE advisory and monitoring role
HE engagement
– Smith Review, ALCAB scrutiny, Russell Group facilitating subjects
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Maths
– Development of 16+ Core Maths qualification, new advanced maths qual and
participation beyond 16, emergence of Specialist maths schools
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What to look out for
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Closure of consultation on latest regulatory requirements (Jan 2014)
Accreditation of first ‘new’ A/AS levels (Autumn 2014)
Position of Labour Party on AS issue and any re-emergence of Bacc model
Nature of future HE engagement and impact of removing SNC
Debate about the implications of facilitating subjects
Growing challenge of alternative work-based routes
1. Qualification reform: VQs. Key Points
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New accreditation criteria
– 3 routes, 9 criteria, 3 initially, rest by 2015
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Tech Level Quals
– Based on occupational competency
– Intended to parallel A level route
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Tech Bacc
– Conservative version: approved Tech Level, L3 maths, EPQ
– Labour version: industry recognised L3 qual, Eng/maths qual, work experience
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BTECs
– Extensive programme of re-development to fit new criteria
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Work experience
– Key part of 16-19 PoS, Evaluation and Guidance published (Oct 2013)
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New ‘youth vocational training schemes’
– 100,000 training opportunities over next 2 yrs, employer supported
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What to look out for
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Updated list of accredited quals for 2016 tables (April 2014)
Development of further destination and outcome data (Spring 2014)
Labour’s Skills Taskforce Report on 14-19 provision (Spring 2014)
Introduction and any further developments of the Tech Bacc (2014)
Outcomes from Cabinet Office and Adonis Reviews (Spring 2014)
1. Qual reform: Apprenticeships. Key Points
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16-18 uptake
– Government adopt as norm for ‘other’ 50%
– But continuing concerns about low take-up
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English/maths
– New expectations from 2014, gradual shift to GCSE
– Concerns about lack of alternative quals and nature of provision
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Funding
– Treasury commitment under current cycle but increasing shift to direct funding
through employers
– 16-18 funding largely left out of current developments
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Structures
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Single standard per occupation determined by employers
Simpler frameworks, 12 month duration, min 20% off the job training
End loaded assessment with grading
Trailblazers testing out new post-Richard vision
What to look out for
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Technical consultation on new funding system (Jan/Feb 2014)
Draft standards from first Trailblazers (Feb 2014)
National Apprenticeship Week (March 2014)
Development of new assessment strategy (April 2014)
Increase in policy activity around young apprenticeships (2014)
1. Qual reform: 6 tests likely to shape policy
debates on qual reform during the year
1.Is this the right model for designing a world-class qualification system?
(Blob v professional consensus)
2.Is the balance right between knowledge, skills and personal development?
(Think 2070!)
3.Is this the best assessment system we can manage? (high or low tech
industry?)
4.Do we still need exams at age 16? (14 v 16 v 18)
5.Do we understand the impact of new learning technology (threat or
liberation)
6.What should we learn from abroad (and does it apply?)
2. Developing a more intelligent accountability
system. The Approach
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Part of wider public sector reform agenda of greater responsiveness,
transparency and digitalisation
Significant cleansing of the system
Shift away from narrow performance band to whole cohort achievement
Continued commitment to VA
Emphasis on progression potential rather than points score
Development of ingredients for a self-improving system
Retention of external inspection, focused on T/L
Increased use of institutional performance management
Application of performance-related pay
Increased role for data in all its forms
2. Performance and Accountability
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Series of consultations
– Primary school performance (July 2013)
– Secondary school performance measures (Feb 2013)
– 16-19 performance measures (Sept 2013)
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Changes to performance table criteria
– 14-16 (Autumn 2011)
– 16-19 (Summer 2013)
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Changes to inspection criteria
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Changes to the profession
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Emergence of other sources of performance information
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DfE Data Warehouse
Ofsted School Data Dashboard
Guardian/Open Public Services Network database
Pearson Results Plus, Durham CEM and others
2. Accountability. Secondary schools
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Consultation spring 2013, Government response Oct 2013, reporting 2016
Latest Update Jan 2014
Number of current mechanisms to remain incl: performance tables; floor
targets; inspection framework; school website details
Three forms of user information: snapshot; performance tables; data
portal
Four key indicators:
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Progress 8
Attainment 8
English and maths performance
EBacc performance
(Possible fifth to come on destinations)
What to look out for
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Updated modelling on Progress 8 (Feb 2014)
Implications of new GCSE grading scale (Spring 2014)
Position on low attaining pupils
Updates on implementation timescale
Alignment with primary and post-16 systems
Opposition positioning
Calculating Progress 8
Grade
Points
Weighted points
Geography
A*
8
8÷10 = 0.8
English Literature
A
7
7÷5 = 1.4
BTEC Business
Distinction
7
7÷10 = 0.7
Science
B
6
6÷10 = 0.6
Maths
B
6
6÷5 = 1.2
English Language B
6
6÷10 = 0.6
RS
B
6
6÷10 = 0.6
Art
C
BTEC Sport
Pass
4
4÷10 = 0.4
Additional Science D
Weighted
attainment
PiXL Main Meeting 16.1.14
6.3 = B+
18
2. Calculating Progress 8
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Assume the student was predicted 48 points based on average KS2
performance
48 points = 8 x B grades
Estimated weighting attainment = 6 (48 divided by 8)
Actual weighted attainment = 6.3
VA for this student is +0.3
Aggregate all positive and negative VA to get overall score
School VA below – 0.5 may lead to intervention
2. Accountability. 16-19
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Consultation autumn 2013, mix of sharper measures, clearer information,
targeted incentives
Defined measures at L2 and L3 with minimum standards for providers and
intervention process for defaulters
Proposals for L2 a mix of core + as follows:
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Similar mix at L3 of core+ as follows:
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Numbers taking ‘substantial VQs
Completion and attainment levels
Average levels of attainment
Destination measures
Plus % taking L2 Eng/maths, closing the gap, attainment at lower levels,
completion rates for traineeships
Progress measure
Completion and attainment measures
Destination measures
Plus closing the gap and numbers achieving Tech Bacc, core maths, facilitating
subjects
What to look out for
– Government positional statement following consultation (Spring 2014)
– Further development of destination data (2014)
– Impact on L2 provision (2014/15)
3. Funding. Current Position
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Squeeze on public sector until 2017/18
Huge pressure on LA budgets
Protection for school budgets
Gradual shifting of funding burden to users
Downward pressure on programme costs
External commissioning of services where possible
Strictly targeted capital budgets
Streamlining support schemes around the Pupil Premium
NAO concerns about budget management and rise of Free School costs
Downsizing at the DfE, nail biting at BIS
1. Funding. Position following latest announcements
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Schools
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Real terms protection for school funding and pupil premium
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Capital funding for new schools, school builds and new school places, school kitchens
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Continued efficiencies for early years and 16-19
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Commitment to extension of free school meals
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Reduction in DfE admin budget and central education support
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Commitment to (eventual) new national funding formula
FE/Skills
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Continued cuts to Dept budget: 6% set in SR, potential 1% added in latest Statement
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£260m savings to come from streamlining the qual system around core activity
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£270m for capital investment
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£240m for EOPs, £350m for RGF, £1.6bn for key sector development, £40m for 2 yrs for
higher apps, £10m through JcP for 16/17 yr olds, removal of NICs for 18-21 yr olds
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Movement towards a single local growth deals by April 2015
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£2bn pa for Single Local Growth Fund including £500m skills funding
HE/science
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Lifting of numbers cap
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Sale of loan book to fund lifting of cap
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Transfer from NSP to support disadvantaged postgrads
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Extra £50m pa from 2015/16 for STEM students
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Targeted funding for a range of science and hi-tech projects, creation (in 2014) of Science and
Innovation Strategy
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Witty Review of university-business relationships
4. System change
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Schools system
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FE system
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Skills system
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HE system
4. System change. Schools
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Current position
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Emergence of ‘Gove’ agenda (2008-on)
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Academies Act and White Paper create launch pads (2010)
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Development of Free School model leads reform of provider system (2011)
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Start of reform of accountability system (2011-2018)
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Start of reform of voc system (2011- 2015)
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Qual reform reset and in full swing (2013-2018)
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Reform of teacher pay, pensions, conditions (2012/13)
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Education Committee Reports on exam system, careers, school partnerships (2012/13)
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Implementation of RPA (2013-15)
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Reform of DfE and creation of RC system to oversee schools (2013 on)
Key issues
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Management of school system; role of LA; performance management; pace of change;
credibility of qual reforms; closing the gap; school improvement; student voice; autonomy v
centralism; displacement of services; distancing of the profession
What to look out for
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Government publish business guidelines for school governors (Jan 2014)
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DfE respond to Committee Report on School Partnerships (Jan 2014)
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Minister announces new Education Technology Action Group (Jan 2014)
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Blunkett Review and development of Labour policy on the school system (2013-14)
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Government launch ‘champion league’ heads scheme (Spring 2014)
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Education Committee Inquires into ‘white, working class kids,’ new school landscape (2014)
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Regional schools commissioners and boards to be in place (July 2014)
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New SEN legislation comes in force (Sept 2014)
In summary
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Despite hiccups, Government pushing ahead with education reform
agenda, speed rush to ensure new qual system in place for 2015/16
Funding protected 5-16 but emphasis still on efficiencies; for-profit
argument potential elephant in room
Introduction of new accountability mechanisms, focus on progress
measures, outcomes, VFM, closing the gap; data dominated
Curriculum requirements refined to more ambitious core expectations, any
flexibilities to be used to bring increased levels of performance
Existing exam system retained but reduction in qual volume, emphasis on
formal assessment mechanisms and removal of resit culture
Voc provision aligned to learner and market needs, emphasis on credibility
and value but continuing concern about employability
Increasing institutional responsibility for the supply, training and
performance of profession
Drive to fill the space, especially at regional level, created by more
autonomous school system
International grass continuing to be seen as greener
Milk and honey coming
Building up to 2015
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New momentum emerges at 2013 Annual Party Conference season
All Parties on ‘war’ footing, undertaking series of Policy Reviews and
Commissions
Party fortunes linked heavily into management of the economy; welfare
and immigration other big issues
Secret dating for Coalition partners emerging
Current key phrases: ‘squashed bottom,’ ‘squeezed middle,’ ‘hard working
people of Britain,’ ‘little black book of policies,’ ‘Waitrose woman’
Education currently only the 4th E (behind the Economy, Europe, Energy)
Timeline
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Spending Review (June 2013)
Autumn Financial Statement (Dec 2013)
2014 Budget (March 2014)
European Parliament elections (May 2014)
London Borough and some Metropolitan and Unitary Authority local elections
(May 2014)
– Final policy drafts (Summer 2014)
– Final Conference round (Autumn 2014)
– Manifestos (March/April 2015)
Building up to 2015
Top 12 education policy issues currently
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School system (models/management/performance)
Primary education (capacity/performance/accountability)
Qualification reform (volume/core content/assessment)
English and maths (T/L/alternatives/support)
Closing the Gap (challenging/social context/interventions)
Youth unemployment (employability/transition/market)
Apprenticeships (funding/quality/standards)
FE (rigour/responsiveness/skills training)
HE (future funding/lifting of cap/regulation)
Technology (infrastructure/learning tool/MOOCs and VOOCs)
Funding (cuts/efficiencies/fee loans)
Profession (qualified/licensed/performance management)