Poverty and Privilege: Primary School
Inequality in South Africa
Carnegie III Conference - UCT
4 September 2012
Nicholas Spaull
nicholasspaull@gmail.com
www.nicspaull.com/research
1
Education and
inequality?
Quality of
education
Duration
of
education
Type of
education
SA is one of the
top 3 most
unequal
countries in
the world
Between 78%
and 85% of
total inequality
is explained by
wage
inequality
Wages
• IQ
• Motivation
• Social
networks
• Discrimination
Outline
1. Rationale for the research
2. Extant literature on education inequality in SA
–
Two education systems not one
3. Theoretical framework: Schooling & Poverty
4. Modelling two data generating processes
–
–
Deciding where to split the distribution into two?
Do the same factors affect both systems?
5. Conclusions & Recommendations
3
Rationale
Chapter 2
Literature Review
Human capital is of economic importance
Cognitive skills are a better
measure of human capital
than educational attainment.
Cognitive skills in
South Africa are
remarkably low and
highly unequal
•
•
Resources
Physical and human
resources are highly
inequitably distributed
across provinces,
socioeconomic quintiles,
and school locations.
Performance
Reading and mathematics
performance are highly
inequitably distributed
across provinces,
socioeconomic quintiles
and school locations.
Performance
Most South African
schools are unable to
produce learners who can
satisfy the demands of
curriculum.
Chapter 3
Preliminary Analysis
Theoretically education can
play a large role in social
mobility.
Why has it not fulfilled this
role in SA?
Bimodality in student
achievement data?
Efficiency
Dimension
Resources
South Africa in regional
context: Other countries in
Sub-Saharan Africa
perform better with fewer
resources.
Chapter 4
Modelling Learner Performance
•
Not all schools are
equally able to
convert additional
resources into
educational outputs.
How can one increase the cognitive skills of South
African primary school children?
Modelling learner
performance in South
Africa
Conclusion
4
Chapter 5
Conclusion
Equity
Dimension
Not all schools are born equal
?
SA public schools?
5
•
(Shepherd, 2011)
.004
.003
0
• Grade 5 [2006]
• Data: PIRLS
.002
Language
.001
kdensity reading test score
.005
Extant literature: Two school systems not one
0
200
400
reading test score
African language schools
600
800
English/Afrikaans schools
6
(Taylor, 2011)
.01
0
•
.005
• Grade 4 [2008]
• Data: NSES
Density
Ex-department
.015
.02
.025
Two school systems not one
0
20
40
60
Numeracy score 2008
Ex-DET/Homelands schools
80
100
Historically white schools
7
2 Systems
Kernel Density of Literacy Score by Race (KZN)
0
.0 05
.0 1
D en sity
.0 15
.0 2
U-ANA 2011
0
20
Race
• Grade 1-6 [2011]
• Data: ANA 2011
40
60
Literacy score (%)
Black
White
Indian
Asian
80
100
80
100
Kernel Density of Numeracy Score by Race (FST)
0
.0 05
.0 1
D en sity
.0 15
.0 2
U-ANA 2011
0
20
40
60
Numeracy score (%)
Coloured
Black
White
8
2 education systems
Dysfunctional Schools (75% of schools)
Functional Schools (25% of schools)
Weak accountability
Strong accountability
Incompetent school management
Good school management
Lack of culture of learning, discipline and order
Culture of learning, discipline and order
Inadequate LTSM
Adequate LTSM
Weak teacher content knowledge
Adequate teacher content knowledge
High teacher absenteeism (1 month/yr)
Low teacher absenteeism (2 week/yr)
Slow curriculum coverage, little homework or testing
Covers the curriculum, weekly homework, frequent
testing
High repetition & dropout (Gr10-12)
Low repetition & dropout (Gr10-12)
Extremely weak learning: most students fail
standardised tests
Adequate learner performance (primary and matric)
See Hoadley (2010), Fleisch (2008), Van der Berg et al (2011), Taylor (2012) as a few of many
9
Teaching Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
High productivity jobs
and incomes (10%)
•
Type
Labour Market
Mainly professional,
managerial & skilled jobs
Requires graduates, good
quality matric or good
vocational skills
Historically mainly white
•
•
University/
FET
•
•
Low productivity jobs &
incomes
•
•
Often manual or low skill
jobs
Limited or low quality
education
Minimum wage can exceed
productivity
-
Minority
(20%)
Big demand for good
schools despite fees
Some
scholarships/bursaries
Unequal
society
Majority
(80%)
Low quality
secondary
school
Low SES
background
Low quality
primary
school
Attainment
•
High SES
background
High
quality
primary
school
Some motivated, lucky or
talented students make the
transition
Vocational training
Affirmative action
Quality
•
•
Strong accountability
Well managed & organized
Good school discipline
Culture of L & T
High
quality
secondary
school
Type of institution
(FET or University)
Quality of institution
Type of qualification
(diploma, degree etc.)
Field of study
(Engineering, Arts etc.)
•
•
Schools Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
High cognitive demand
Full curriculum coverage
Adequate LTSM
Frequent assessment
cf. Servaas van der Berg
Teaching Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
•
Low cognitive demand
Slow curriculum coverage
Inadequate LTSM
Weak & infrequent assessment
Weak teacher content knowledge
Schools Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
•
Little parental involvement
No accountability
Little discipline
10
Weak management
High teacher absenteeism
Teaching Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
High productivity jobs
and incomes (10%)
•
Type
Labour Market
Mainly professional,
managerial & skilled jobs
Requires graduates, good
quality matric or good
vocational skills
Historically mainly white
•
•
University/
FET
•
•
Low productivity jobs &
incomes
•
•
Often manual or low skill
jobs
Limited or low quality
education
Minimum wage can exceed
productivity
-
Minority
(20%)
Big demand for good
schools despite fees
Some
scholarships/bursaries
Unequal
society
Majority
(80%)
Low quality
secondary
school
Low SES
background
Low quality
primary
school
Attainment
•
High SES
background
High
quality
primary
school
Some motivated, lucky or
talented students make the
transition
Vocational training
Affirmative action
Quality
•
•
Strong accountability
Well managed & organized
Good school discipline
Culture of L & T
High
quality
secondary
school
Type of institution
(FET or University)
Quality of institution
Type of qualification
(diploma, degree etc.)
Field of study
(Engineering, Arts etc.)
•
•
Schools Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
High cognitive demand
Full curriculum coverage
Adequate LTSM
Frequent assessment
cf. Servaas van der Berg
Teaching Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
•
Low cognitive demand
Slow curriculum coverage
Inadequate LTSM
Weak & infrequent assessment
Weak teacher content knowledge
Schools Characterised by:
•
•
•
•
•
Little parental involvement
No accountability
Little discipline
11
Weak management
High teacher absenteeism
Splitting the 2 systems
• If there are indeed two education systems in
SA and not one, where/how do we draw the
line between one and the other?
12
.0 08
SACMEQ III South Africa
.0 04
0
0
.0 02
.0 02
.0 04
D en sity
.0 06
.0 06
.0 08
SACMEQ III South Africa
0
0
200
400
600
Student Reading Score
Poorest 50%
800
200
400
600
Student Reading Score
1000
Poorest 33%
Wealthiest 50%
1000
Middle 33%
Kernel Density of Student Reading Score by School SES Quintile
Kernel Density of Student Reading Score by School SES Quartiles
SACMEQ III South Africa
SACMEQ III South Africa
.0 04
.0 02
.0 04
D en sity
.0 06
.0 06
.0 08
.0 08
800
Wealthiest 33%
0
0
.0 02
D en sity
Kernel Density of Student Reading Score by School SES Terciles
Kernel Density of Student Reading Score by School SES (half)
0
0
200
400
600
Student Reading Score
800
200
1000
400
600
Student Reading Score
800
Poorest 20%
Second Poorest 20%
Poorest 25%
Second Poorest 25%%
Middle 20%
Second Wealthiest 20%
Second Wealthiest 25%
Wealthiest 25%
Wealthiest 20%
1000
•
(Spaull, 2011)
.0 04
0
• Grade 6 [2007]
• Data: SACMEQ
.0 02
Socioeconomic
Status
D en sity
.0 06
.0 08
Two school systems not one
0
200
400
600
Learner Reading Score
800
Poorest 25%
Second poorest 25%
Second wealthiest 25%
Wealthiest 25%
1000
14
Comparing SA & Botswana
Source: Spaull, 2011
.0 06
.0 04
0
.0 02
Teacher knowledge
Teacher absenteeism
Textbook access
Literacy/numeracy rates
Grade repetition
Parental education
Homework frequency
D en sity
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
.0 08
Corroborating evidence?
0
200
400
600
Learner Reading Score
800
Poorest 25%
Second poorest 25%
Second wealthiest 25%
Wealthiest 25%
1000
16
Teacher knowledge
SACMEQ III (2007)  401/498 Gr6 Mathematics teachers
7
Correct answer
(7km):
38% of Gr 6
Maths teachers
SACMEQ Maths
teacher test Q17
Correct
1
23%
2
22%
Quintile
3
38%
4
40%
5
74%
Avg
38%
2 education
systems
17
Teacher absenteeism
SACMEQ III South Africa
Quintile 1
• What is the distribution
of teacher absenteeism
across school SES
quintiles?
Quintile 4
Quintile 3
Quintile 2
Quintile 5
0
10
20
30
Days absent per year
40
50
excludes outside values
18
60
40
0
• What proportion of students
are reaching higher order
competency levels?
20
Percent
80
100
Student competency levels
5
4
3
2
1
Quintiles of School Socio-economic Status
Reading Competency Levels
L1 - Pre Reading
L2 - Emergent Reading
L3 - Basic Reading
L4 - Reading for Meaning
L5 - Interpretive Reading
L6 - Inferential Reading
L7 - Analytical Reading
L8 - Critical Reading
19
Do the ends justify the means?
Drowning in 6 inches
There was a nonswimmer from Berlin,
Who loved statistics and gin,
It’s little surprise that he reached his demise
While crossing a stream of average depth six inches
SACMEQ III Reading scores: Mean – Median
SACMEQ Standard deviation approx 100
35
31
30
25
20
15
15
10
14
12
10
17
16
10
7
5
5
2
0
0
-5
-10
BOT
KEN
LES
MAL
MOZ NAM
SOU
SWA
TAN
UGA
ZAM
ZAN
ZIM
-6
20
21
Modelling student performance
• Two data-generating processes. Little reason
to believe there is the same underlying DGP
• Split samples
– Wealthiest 25% of schools
– Poorest 75% of schools
• Which coefficients are large & significant
across the two regressions?
22
11/29 variables common
5/27 variables common
Conclusions & Implications
We have 2 education systems in South Africa
25
Conclusions & Implications
We have 2 education systems in South Africa
1. Reporting education statistics in SA
– Means are uniquely misleading in SA – the average child does not exist in any
meaningful sense
– Report educational statistics by quintile in addition to province
– You can’t solve a problem that doesn’t officially exist
2. Modelling educational performance in SA
–
Modelling a single education system when there are two can lead to spurious results
3. Policy differentiation
–
–
–
Policies suited to one system are not necessarily suited to the other
Don’t interfere with high-performing schools If it aint broke don’t (try) fix it
LITNUM intervention in WC  Blanket approach
26
Conclusions & Implications
Low
quality
education
Low
social
mobility
Hereditary
poverty
Persistent patterns of poverty
and privilege
27
3 biggest challenges - SA
1.Failure to get the basics right
•
•
Children who cannot read, write and compute properly (Functionally
illiterate/innumerate) after 6 years of formal full-time schooling
Often teachers lack even the most basic knowledge
2.Equity in education
•
•
2 education systems – dysfunctional system operates at bottom of African
countries, functional system operates at bottom of developed countries.
More resources is NOT the silver bullet – we are not using existing resources
3.Lack of accountability
•
•
•
Little accountability to parents in majority of school system
Little accountability between teachers and Department
Teacher unions abusing power and acting unprofessionally
28
Way forward?
1. Acknowledge the extent of the problem
•
Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with
HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread
reform.
2. Focus on the basics
•
•
•
•
•
Every child MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy these are the
building blocks of further education – weak foundations = recipe for disaster
Teachers need to be in school teaching (re-introduce inspectorate?)
Every teacher needs a minimum competency (basic) in the subjects they teach
Every child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materials
Use every school day and every school period – maximise instructional time
3. Increase information, accountability & transparency
•
•
•
At ALL levels – DBE, district, school, classroom, learner
Strengthen ANA
Set realistic goals for improvement and hold people accountable
29
Education
“Education is the great engine of
personal development. It is through
education that the daughter of a
peasant can become a doctor, that the
son of a mineworker can become the
head of the mine, that a child of farmworkers can become the president”
– Nelson Mandela
If we looked at 200 Grade 1 children 12
years ago and then look at them again in
matric, only 1 out of the 200 were eligible
for a maths or science degree based on
their matric marks – the correspodning
figure for white children was 15 times
higher.
30
References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fleisch, B. (2008). Primary Education in Crisis: Why South African schoolchildren underachieve in reading and mathematics. Cape
Town. : Juta & Co.
Hoadley, U. (2010). What doe we know about teaching and learning in primary schools in South Africa? A review of the classroombased research literature. Report for the Grade 3 Improvement project of the University of Stellenbosch. Western Cape Education
Department.
Hungi, N., Makuwa, D., Ross, K., Saito, M., Dolata, S., van Capelle, F., et al. (2011). SACMEQ III Project Results: Levels and Trends in
School Resources among SACMEQ School Systems. Paris: Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational
Quality.
Ross, K., Saito, M., Dolata, S., Ikeda, M., Zuze, L., Murimba, S., et al. (2005). The Conduct of the SACMEQ III Project. In E. Onsomu,
J. Nzomo, & C. Obiero, The SACMEQ II Project in Kenya: A Study of the Conditions of Schooling and the Quality of
Education. Harare: SACMEQ.
Shepherd, D. (2011). Constraints to School Effectiveness: What prevents poor schools from delivering results? Stellenbosch
Economic Working Papers 05/11. [PIRLS]
Spaull, N. (2011a). A Preliminary Analysis of SACMEQ III South Africa.Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers.
Spaull, N. (2011). Primary School Performance in Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa. Paris: Southern and Eastern
African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ) Working Paper no.8.
Spaull, N. 2012 Equity & Efficiency in South African primary schools : a preliminary analysis of SACMEQ III South Africa Masters
Thesis. Economics. Stellenbosch University
Taylor, S. (2011). Uncovering indicators of effective school management in South Africa using the National School Effectiveness
Study.Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers 10/11, 1-51. [NSES]
Van der Berg, S., Burger, C., Burger, R., de Vos, M., du Rand, G., Gustafsson, M., Shepherd, D., Spaull, N., Taylor, S., van
Broekhuizen, H., and von Fintel, D. (2011). Low quality education as a poverty trap. Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch,
Department of Economics. Research report for the PSPPD project for Presidency.
31
www.nicspaull.com/research
nicholasspaull@gmail.com
@NicSpaull
32
33
Description of Range on 500
levels
point scale
Level 1
Pre-reading
< 373
Skills
Level 2
Emergent
reading
Matches words and pictures involving prepositions and abstract concepts; uses cuing
systems (by sounding out, using simple sentence structure, and familiar words) to
interpret phrases by reading on.
373  414
[1]
Level 3
Basic reading
Level 4
Reading
for
meaning
Level 5
Interpretive
reading
Level 6
Inferential
reading
Level 7
Analytical
reading
Matches words and pictures involving concrete concepts and everyday objects. Follows
short simple written instructions.
See Ross et al. (2005, p. 95).
414  457
Interprets meaning (by matching words and phrases, completing a sentence, or matching
adjacent words) in a short and simple text by reading on or reading back.
457  509
Reads on or reads back in order to link and interpret information located in various parts
of the text.
509  563
Reads on and reads back in order to combine and interpret information from various parts
of the text in association with external information (based on recalled factual knowledge)
that “completes” and contextualizes meaning.
563  618
Reads on and reads back through longer texts (narrative, document or expository) in order
to combine information from various parts of the text so as to infer the writer’s purpose.
618  703
Locates information in longer texts (narrative, document or expository) by reading on and
reading back in order to combine information from various parts of the text so as to infer
the writer’s personal beliefs (value systems, prejudices, and/or biases).
Level 8
Critical reading
703+
Locates information in a longer texts (narrative, document or expository) by reading on
and reading back in order to combine information from various parts of the text so as to
infer and evaluate what the writer has assumed about both the topic and the
characteristics of the reader – such as age, knowledge, and personal beliefs (value
systems, prejudices, and/or biases).
34
Description of levels
Range on 500
point scale
Level 1
Pre-numeracy
Level 2
Emergent numeracy
[1]
< 364
Applies single step addition or subtraction operations. Recognizes simple shapes. Matches
numbers and pictures. Counts in whole numbers.
364  462
Applies a two-step addition or subtraction operation involving carrying, checking (through
very basic estimation), or conversion of pictures to numbers. Estimates the length of
familiar objects. Recognizes common two-dimensional shapes.
See (Ross, et al., 2005, p. 95).
Level 3
Basic numeracy
462  532
Level 4
Beginning numeracy
532  587
Level 5
Competent numeracy
587  644
Level 6
Mathematically
skilled
Level 7
Concrete
solving
Level 8
Abstract
solving
Skills
644  720
problem
720  806
problem
> 806
Translates verbal information presented in a sentence, simple graph or table using one
arithmetic operation in several repeated steps. Translates graphical information into
fractions. Interprets place value of whole numbers up to thousands. Interprets simple
common everyday units of measurement.
Translates verbal or graphic information into simple arithmetic problems. Uses multiple
different arithmetic operations (in the correct order) on whole numbers, fractions, and/or
decimals.
Translates verbal, graphic, or tabular information into an arithmetic form in order to solve
a given problem. Solves multiple-operation problems (using the correct order of
arithmetic operations) involving everyday units of measurement and/or whole and mixed
numbers. Converts basic measurement units from one level of measurement to another
(for example, metres to centimetres).
Solves multiple-operation problems (using the correct order of arithmetic operations)
involving fractions, ratios, and decimals. Translates verbal and graphic representation
information into symbolic, algebraic, and equation form in order to solve a given
mathematical problem. Checks and estimates answers using external knowledge (not
provided within the problem).
Extracts and converts (for example, with respect to measurement units) information from
tables, charts, visual and symbolic presentations in order to identify, and then solves
multi-step problems.
Identifies the nature of an unstated mathematical problem embedded within verbal or
graphic information, and then translate this into symbolic, algebraic, or equation form in
35
order to solve the problem.
Source: (Hungi, et al., 2010)
Teacher knowledge...
 Q6: 53%
correct (D)
Q9: 24% correct (C)
English Q9: 57% correct (D)
36