Complexity in Public Policy: Metaphors and Methods Philip Haynes What do we mean by policy? Government action Linking of decisions Intervention – political power What do we mean by policy? – management, professionalism… Implementation Multidisciplinary Policy Process Policy as a rational process Making sense of it all? Patterns Time and Space Patterns Action over time policy trends Spatial levels global, national, local, organisation, team… Policy systems External Factors External Factors Complexity Theory Complex dynamic systems are constructed by the interaction of instability and stability. Includes chaos theory, but goes beyond it Stability Instability Complex or complicated? Some core metaphors 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Instability (chaos) Nested systems Attractors (order in disorder) Interaction (not cause and effect) Self organisation (order from within) Chaos and instability Instability and chaos in policy Private residential social care homes, aged 65 and over, Eng. annual % change 160000 30.00 140000 25.00 120000 20.00 totals 100000 80000 15.00 60000 10.00 40000 5.00 20000 0 0.00 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 Types of change Instability percentage change 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 output over time 8 9 10 Types of change percentage change Comple xity 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 output over time 8 9 10 Policy and Time Evolution of macro policy Which path does policy action take? 1. Path dependency 2. Punctuated equilibrium 3. Complex stability-instability Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Nested systems Central Government Sub National Government Local Government Organisation B Organisation A Actor, 1., 2, 3, etc Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Attractor UK inflation (t-1) 1987-2004 Attractor UK inflation 1987-1990 Attractor UK inflation 1990--1997 Attractor UK inflation 1997-2005 Attractor UK inflation 1987-2005 Attractors - qualitative Kontoupolous – ‘competing logics in public policy’ Managerialism Marketisation Professionalism Consumerism User involvement Citizenship Bureaucratic rules Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect) A B System Interaction Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect) Self organisation (Order from within) Self organisation Methods How we can make sense of such complexity? ‘We maybe able to able to learn a lot about the kind of dynamics involved in the functioning of such systems…Complexity theory underscores the importance of contingent factors… No general model can capture these singularities.’ Cilliers, 2001, p.145 Qualitative Comparative Method Charles Ragin Use of quantitative thresholds to make qualitative judgements Better consideration of cases Multiple ‘complex’ paths to outcome Single quantitative model As complex patterns QCA – truth tables H W 0 1 M 1 S 0 CH 0 A 0 AR 0 Out C 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 id AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND GERMANY GB US AUSTRIA HUNG NOR,CAN POLAND JAPAN SPAIN Logical Statements Outcome 1 = higher expenditure on LTC policy h* (M*s*ch) + (m*S*a) N= (8) (5) + (3) Country statements h * m * S * ch * a * ar (GB and USA) Patterns – workflow diagrams Clearing Publicity Student Induction Admissions Learning and Teaching delivery Open days Research grants Progression Subject strength Staff Staff expertise deployment Staff turn over Assessment Research publications Staff stress Higher Degree Recruitment Examination Boards Awards and Graduation Student stress System Stress (Info. Systems) Timetabling Personal tutoring Student services Student retention Indicator Dashboard 19.78 SSRs Student Retention Publications cited Student Targets Budget Grants awarded Implications for practice ‘Decision makers should be content with setting minimum specifications, establishing boundaries and letting the system settle into a condition that satisfies the constraints placed on it.’ (Kernick 2004, p137)’ Airport paperback: five point summary Don’t micro manage Do both synthesis and analysis (the big picture is an important as the detail) Celebrate positive feedback systems Some places are trapped in negative feedback, consider intervening on a large scale. Listen to local context and ‘stories’