Average Standardised Residual

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Using CEM Data:
Target Setting, Monitoring &
Reporting
Belfast, March 6th 2013
Neil Defty
Business & Development Manager
CEM
[email protected]
Which Baseline to use?
Student 1
Student 2
Student 3
Student 3 - IPR
Key Questions for Target Setting
• What type of valid and reliable
predictive data should be used to set
the targets?
• Should students be involved as part of
the process (ownership, empowerment
etc.)?
• Should parents be informed of the
process and outcome?
Key points to consider might include:
• Where has the data come from?
• What (reliable and relevant) data should we
use?
• Enabling colleagues to trust the data: Training
(staff)
• Communication with parents and students
• Challenging, NOT demoralising, students….
• Storage and retrieval of data
• Consistency of understanding what the data
means and does not mean
Value Added: The theory and
Stats bits…
.
Measuring Value Added – Terminology
Subject X
Exam grade
Outcome
120
100
80
-ve VA
+ve VA
60
40
Residuals
20
BASELINE SCORE
VA
Trend Line/Regression Line
Measuring Value Added – An Example
National
Trend
‘Average’
Student
A*
B
Result
C
D
-ve (- 2 grades)
Aldwulf
Beowulf
Subject A
+ve (+ 2 grades)
Cuthbert
E
Subject B
F
G
U
Low
Ability
Average
Ability
High Ability
Baseline Score
The position of the national trend line is of critical
importance
Some Subjects are More Equal than Others….
A-Level
A*
140
A
120
B
Grade
100
>1 grade
Photography
Sociology
80
C
English Lit
Psychology
Maths
D
60
Physics
Latin
E
40
5
C
6
7
B
A
Average GCSE
8
A*
Burning Question :
What is my Value Added Score ?
Better Question :
Is it Important ?
Value Added Charts
Pre 16
VA Score
Performance above expectation
Good Practice to Share?
Performance in line
with expectation
Performance below expectation
Problem with Teaching & Learning?
Danger of Relying on Raw Residuals
Without Confidence Limits
Which Subjects
Cause Most
Concern?
4
3
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-2.9
-3
Short Course Religious
Studies
Spanish
Science
Religious Studies
Physics
Physical Education
Music
Mathematics
History
German
Geography
French
English Literature
English
Drama
Design & Technology
Chemistry
Business Studies
Biology
Art & Design
Additional Science
Additional Applied Science
Which subjects now cause most concern ?
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-1
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.5
1
0.8
1.1
2
0
-2
-4
Average Standardised Residual
Average Standardised Residuals by Subject
Business Studies
Religious Studies
Value Added Charts
Post 16
SPC Chart
VA Score
Performance above expectation
Good Practice to Share?
Performance in line
with expectation
Performance below expectation
Problem with Teaching & Learning?
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Subject Summary -
Subject Summary -
Current Year
3 Year Average
A2-English Literature
Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart
2008
2009
Year
2010
Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report
Scatter Plot
A2 – English Literature
General Underachievement?
Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report
Scatter Plot
A2 – English Literature
Too many U’s?
Other things to look for…
Why did these students do so badly?
Why did this student do so well?
How did they do in their other subjects?
Summary of Process
• Examine Subject Summary
• Determine ‘interesting’ (i.e. statistically significant) subjects
• Look at 3 year average as well as single year if available
• Look at trends in ‘Interesting Subjects’
• Examine student data – Scatter graphs
• Identify students over / under achieving
• Any known issues?
• Don’t forget to look at over achieving subjects as well as under
achieving
Baseline Choice
GCSE or Baseline Test?
•
•
•
•
•
Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with
differing value-added have the same ability?
How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus
can you maximise their potential?
Has a student got very good GCSE scores through the school
effort rather than their ability alone?
Does school GCSE Value-Added limit the ability to add value at
KS5?
Can you add value at every Key Stage?
The Effect of Prior Value Added
Beyond Expectation
In line with Expectation
Below Expectation
+ve Value-Added
0 Value-Added
-ve Value-Added
Average GCSE = 6
Average GCSE = 6
Average GCSE = 6
Do these 3 students all have the same ability?
GCSE as
Baseline
Same School - Spot the Difference ?
Test as
Baseline
National or School Type
Specific?
Comparison to all schools
Comparison to Independent Schools Only
Comparison to FE Colleges Only
Comparison to all schools
Questions:
→
→
How does the unit of comparison used
affect the Value Added data and what
implications does this have on your
understanding of performance?
Does this have implications for Self
Evaluation?
Definitions:
•
Residual – difference between the points the student attains and
points attained on average by students from the CEM cohort with
a similar ability
•
Standardised Residual – the residual adjusted to remove
differences between qualification points scales and for statistical
purposes
•
Average Standardised Residual – this is the ‘Value Added Score’
for any group of results
•
Subject VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’
results in the particular subject
•
School VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’
results in all subjects for a school / college
•
Confidence Limit – area of statistical uncertainty within which any
variation from 0 is deemed ‘acceptable’ and outside of which could be
deemed ‘important’
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