Brothers or Friends?: Taiwanese Voters’
Perception about the Relationship
between the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait
是兄弟？是朋友？臺灣選民對兩岸關係的想像
FRANK CHENG-SHAN LIU 劉正山
A S S O C I AT E P RO F E S S O R
INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
N AT I O N A L S U N YAT - S E N U N I V E R S I T Y, TA I WA N , RO C
C S L I U @ M A I L . N S YS U . E D U . T W
Y I TA N L I 李 一 潭
A S S I S TA N T P RO F E S S O R
D E PA RT M E N T O F P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E
S E AT T L E U N I V E R S I T Y, U S A
L I Y @ S E AT T L E U . E D U
Introduction
• Central questions
• How Taiwanese voters imagine the relationship with
Mainland China and the extent to which these
perceptions influence their attitudes toward crossstrait cooperation
• Evolution of Cross-Strait Relations
• Methods and Data
• Preliminary Findings and Analysis
• Conclusion and Discussion
Evolution of Cross-Strait Relations
• Economic convergence
• Political divergence
• Taiwan’s Democracy
• Generation Politics
• The construction of new Taiwanese identity
• The Taiwan issue
• Territoriality/Antiquity
• Identity
• Sunflower Movement
What Matters and How Do We Know?
• National/ethic identification
• Party identification
• Country identification
• Generation politics
• Gender
• Education attainment
• Data and methods
Findings: Descriptive Analysis
• How do you see our relationship with
Mainland China, is it more like father and
son, brothers, couples, friends, or enemies?
您覺得我們和大陸是什麼關係，是父子、兄弟、夫妻、朋
友，還是敵人？
• Do you hope that Taiwan and Mainland
China become one country?
請問您希不希望臺灣與大陸合為一個國家？
Figure1: The Distribution of Imagined Relationships
with Mainland China by National Identity
Figure 2: The Distribution of Perceived Relationships
with Mainland China by Unification Preferences
Findings: Explanatory Analysis
• National/ethnic identification
• Party identification
• Country identification
• Democratic influence
• Generational gap
• Difference in gender and education
attainment
Table 1: Factors of the Imagined Relationships with
Mainland China
Brothers
Reg.
Brothers
Coef.
Std.
Error
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
Error
Enemies
Reg.
Friends
Coef.
Std.
Error
(Intercept)
-2.167***
0.513
1.332**
0.442
-2.255***
0.628
Taiwanese
-0.318
0.212
0.086
0.184
0.748*
0.291
0.340
-2.167***0.104 0.513
-0.011
0.323
**
1.332
0.179
Reg.
National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)
Coef.
(Intercept)
Friends
Chinese
Std.
Error
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
Error
Enemies
Reg.
Coef.
0.4420.664 -2.255***
Std.
Error
0.628
Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)
for the Pan-Blue Camp
National/Ethnic IdentificationSupport
(base=Both)
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
Taiwanese
Willing to change ROC to Taiwan
0.209
-0.085
0.344
-0.251
0.244
-0.076
0.193
0.380
0.235
-0.487
0.104
Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country
Male
0.477*
Support for the Pan-Blue Camp
*
0.184
0.299
-0.012
0.340
0.079
-0.129
0.180*
0.082
-0.061
0.076
-0.417**
0.139
0.161*
0.065
0.022
0.057
-0.191*
0.083
0.183
-0.676***
0.152
-0.086
0.210
0.032
0.010
0.045
0.227
0.040
rd
0.086
0.221
1.111***
Education
Counry Identification
-0.301
0.212
Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)
Our democracy can change Mainland China
Generations (base= 3
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
0.227
-0.318
Counry Identification
Prefer using the country name Taiwan
Chinese
0.477*
0.036
-0.251
0.244
, born 1954~1968)
0.189
0.397
-0.011
0.067
0.086
-0.301
-0.066
*
-0.076
0.3230.089
0.209
0.193
0.565*
0.240
-0.757**
0.223
0.384
0.321
4th (born 1969~1978)
-0.435
0.261
-0.272
0.214
1.080***
0.300
-0.584
0.305
0.039
0.244
0.774*
0.342
Prefer using the country name6 Taiwan
(born 1989~1993)
th
-0.487
*
Observations
AIC
Willing to change ROC to Taiwan
-0.738
0.221
0.359
*
773
-0.012
0.079
820.171
0.299
0.286
-0.439
773
0.1890.365
1.244
0.291
0.179
0.664
-0.085
0.344
0.380
0.235
0.397
0.269
0.269
1st & 2nd (born before 1953)
5th (born 1979~1988)
0.748*
**
773
-0.129
643.447
0.067
0.086
0.089
-0.061
0.076
-0.417**
0.139
1048.966
Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country
0.180*
0.082
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
-0.251
0.244
-0.076
0.193
0.380
Table
1: Factors of the Imagined Relationships with
Counry Identification
Mainland China
*
Prefer using the country name Taiwan
-0.487
Willing to change ROC to Taiwan
Error
-0.012Coef. 0.079
(Intercept)
Std.
Reg.
Coef.
-2.167***
0.513
1.332**
*
0.082
-0.318
Our democracy can change Mainland
China
Chinese
0.161 0.104 0.065
0.340
1.111***
0.477*
Support for the Pan-Blue Camp
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
Education
0.212
*
Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)
Male
0.299
0.183
0.227
0.244
0.040-0.251 0.036
0.189
Friends
Reg.
Hope Taiwan and PRC become
one country
0.180
National/Ethnic
Identification (base=Both)
Taiwanese
0.221
Brothers
0.086
0.089
-0.417**
0.139
0.057
0.179
0.664
-0.191*
0.083
0.152
-0.086
0.210
0.010
0.045
0.384
0.321
1.080***
0.300
0.045
0.774*
0.342
0.321
0.286
1.244**
0.365
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
0.442
-2.255***
0.628
Error
0.067
0.076
0.748*
0.184
0.022
-0.011
0.323
-0.676***
-0.301
0.269
Std.
-0.061
0.086
0.397
Enemies
Error
-0.129
0.209
-0.085
0.193 *
-0.066
-0.076
0.235
0.291
0.344
0.380
0.235
0.032
Counry Identification
rd
using the country name Taiwan
Generations (base= 3 , bornPrefer
1954~1968)
Willing to change ROC to Taiwan
st
nd
-0.487*
0.221
0.299
0.189
-0.012
0.079
-0.129
0.067
*
1 & 2 (born before 1953) Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country
0.565 0.180 0.240
0.082
th
4 (born 1969~1978)
th
5 (born 1979~1988)
Our democracy can change Mainland China
*
0.161*
0.065
-0.757
0.076
**
-0.061
0.022
***
Education
0.040
rd
***
0.036
-0.584
0.305
-0.066*
0.269
0.086
0.089
0.223
0.139
-0.417**
-0.191*
0.057
-0.4351.111 0.261
-0.272
0.183 -0.676
0.152
Male
0.397
0.032
0.039
0.083
0.214
-0.086
0.210
0.010
0.244
Generations (base= 3 , born 1954~1968)
6th (born 1989~1993)
1st & 2nd (born before 1953)
*
**
*
0.240
-0.757
0.223
-0.7380.565
0.359
-0.439
4th (born 1969~1978)
-0.435
0.261
-0.272
0.214
Observations
5th (born 1979~1988)
773
-0.584
0.305
0.039
0.244
AIC
6th (born 1989~1993)
-0.738
0.359
820.171
-0.439
0.286
Observations
AIC
*
0.384
1.080***
773
0.774
0.300
*
0.342
**
0.365
1.244
1048.966
773
773
773
820.171
1048.966
643.447
Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
773
643.447
Findings: Future Economic Cooperation
• Our government has been negotiating with Mainland
China regarding economic cooperation, do you prefer
stepping forward bravely or watching steps and
slowing down?
目前政府正在推動兩岸經貿談判，請問您覺得政府應該更勇敢積極一
些，還是小心謹慎一些？
• Do you think that our economic power can keep the
cross-Strait status quo?
我們的經濟實力是否足以能維持兩岸的現狀？
• How much do you hope that Mainland China
becomes a democracy?
請問您希不希望大陸成為民主國家？
Table 2: The Imagined Relationships with Mainland
China and Attitudes toward Economic Cooperation (1)
Reg. Coef.
Std. Error
0.807
1.272
Father-Son
-1.641
1.183
Brothers
-2.119
1.127
Freidns
-2.034
1.121
Enemy
-2.408*
1.138
Others
-2.035
1.238
Taiwanese
-0.461*
0.204
Chinese
-0.868*
0.363
Support for the Pan-Blue Camp
0.155
0.230
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
-0.147
0.230
(Intercept)
Imagined Relationships (base=Couples)
National/Ethinic Identification (base=Both)
Table 3: Economic Cooperation (2)
Family
Friends
Enemies
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
Error
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
Error
Reg.
Coef.
Std.
Error
(Intercept)
-1.244*
0.631
-1.241
0.642
-1.178
0.631
Family
0.747*
0.377
0.085
0.178
-0.405
0.254
Friends
Enemy
National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)
Taiwanese
-0.498*
0.201
-0.508*
0.200
-0.469*
0.202
Chinese
-0.896*
0.362
-0.907*
0.363
-0.896*
0.362
Support for the Pan-Blue Camp
0.138
0.228
0.130
0.229
0.137
0.229
Support for the Pan-Green Camp
-0.196
0.229
-0.191
0.228
-0.163
0.229
Prefer using Taiwan to ROC
-0.344
0.194
-0.352
0.194
-0.325
0.194
0.502***
0.087
0.510***
0.086
0.500***
0.086
Prefer unification
Hoping Mainland China become
Prefer unification
0.502***
0.087
0.510***
0.086
0.500***
0.086
Hoping Mainland China become
0.095
0.144
Table 3: The Imagined0.151
Relationships
with
democratic
0.095
0.151
Mainland
China and Attitudes toward Economic Cooperation (2)
0.095
Our democracy can change Mainland
China
0.133*
0.067
0.130
0.067
0.126
0.067
Keeping economic status quo
-0.113
0.073
-0.116
0.073
-0.124
0.073
-0.618**
0.178
-0.610**
0.180
-0.624***
0.178
-0.036
0.038
-0.036
0.038
-0.035
0.038
1st & 2nd (born before 1953)
0.001
0.266
0.025
0.268
0.027
0.266
4th (born 1969~1978)
0.494*
0.246
0.533*
0.245
0.581*
0.248
5th (born 1979~1988)
1.075***
0.274
1.107***
0.273
1.146***
0.275
6th (born 1989~1993)
0.557
0.336
0.644
0.334
0.696*
0.336
Male
Education
Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)
Observations
AIC
674
674
674
829.877
833.690
831.317
Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
Conclusion and Discussion
• The findings help explain the dynamics of
Sunflower Movement.
• brothers vs. friends
• Democracy vs. Economy (CSSTA)
• Dual national identity and positive attitudes
toward economic cooperation