Decision Making in a
Crisis or Emergency
Deborah Higgins, MBCI
Head of Learning and Development, BCI
Jim Burtles, Hon FBCI
Global Membership Council, BCI
November 2013
November
2013
Decisions In Crises
or Emergencies
Introducing
The
model
Acknowledgement
• This model was inspired by,
and is derived from the
National Decision Model
–Approved, and used, by the Association
of Chief Police Officers (ACPO)
• Developed by the ACPO Ethics Portfolio and the
National Risk Coordination Group as a logical
and evidence-based approach to making
critical policing decisions
Question
Why did we think this might
prove to be useful in a
Business Continuity
context?
In a Crisis or Emergency
• Important Decisions must be made
– Rapidly
– Under pressure
– Amidst confusion
– In strange circumstances
• These Decisions will
– Have serious consequences
– Come under scrutiny
Therefore
• A structured approach should be adopted
– Preferably one that has been:
•
•
•
•
Well established
Properly documented
Thoroughly practised
Demonstrated to be viable
• A standard protocol is required
– A practical procedure which can be easily
taught and regularly exercised
Advantages
• Following a ‘standard’ protocol
– Aligns various aspects and interests
– Continuous improvement through practice
– Demonstrates good practice
– Ensures best results
– Eliminates guesswork
– Meets the expectations of regulators,
auditors and investigators
• We already have
a structured
approach in
the form of
our BCM
Lifecycle
(GPG 2013)
D I C E for
Decisions
In Crisis
A Logical
Reiterative
Process
An effective process for
prudent decision making at
the strategic level under
crisis conditions
Mnemonic
Actions
Options
Powers
Strategy
Information
Values
Remember:- Consider:
Values and Information lead to Strategy
Powers and Options lead to Actions
The next slide is an animated
view of the process in action
D I C E for
Decisions
In Crisis
A model process for
prudent decision making
at strategic level during a
crisis situation
Click to Reveal the
Model Process
The Process in Action
The following slides provide an overview of the
various modes and stages of the
D I C E process
Planning Mode
Response Mode
Decision Mode
Pre-event development
Part of the BCP
Strategic leadership
• Introducing the term ‘Mission and Value Statement’
and the optional acronym ‘MVS’
Planning Mode
1. AIMS & IDEALS
• Develop and Agree
− A Mission and
Value Statement (MVS)
•
Obtain Top Management signoff
• This is to become a regular reference point
throughout the response to an incident
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
Response Mode (1)
The Incident Response
procedure is an integral
part of the Business
Continuity Plan; i.e.
In the event of:An Alarm or An Alert
• Mobilise the
Incident Management
Team (IMT)
Response Mode (2)
• Determine and announce the location of the
Incident Management Centre/Control room
• Allocate or agree responsibilities; e.g.
•
•
•
•
•
Team Leader/Chair
Deputy Team Leader/Chair
Spokesperson
Record Keeper
Intelligence
• Follow the D I C E protocol
Question
Would people really follow
a protocol under
emergency
conditions?
Decision Mode
2. INFORMATION
• Define the Situation
• Gather Facts about the
Event and Circumstances
• Establish Communications
• Accept that our knowledge may be incomplete
• What are we expecting to achieve?
• How does this knowledge relate to the
Mission and Value of the enterprise?
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
Decision Mode
3. ASSESSMENT
• Assess the Situation,
Risks and Threats
• Do we need more
information?
• What are the timeframes?
• Develop a viable Strategy
• How do these conclusions relate to the
Mission and Value of the enterprise?
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
Decision Mode
4. POWERS
• What Powers might be
needed?
• Who has those Powers?
• What is our Policy?
• How do we invoke those Powers?
• What does our Policy suggest?
• How do these issues relate to the
Mission and Value of the enterprise?
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
Decision Mode
5. OPTIONS
• What are the Options?
• Do we need more information?
• What are the timeframes?
• Develop a viable Action Plan
• Consider the effect of further surprises and problems
• How does this action plan align with the
Mission and Value of the enterprise?
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
Decision Mode
6. ACTIONS & REVIEW
• Respond
• Inform
• Record
• Monitor
• Repeat the cycle
• Until the Incident is Over
• Review
• When the Incident is Over
• How do our actions and their effects align with the
Mission and Value of the enterprise?
Question
How might this work in a
Business Continuity
context?
A Wall Chart
• The following slide could be the basis of a
Wall Chart or a Poster in the
Command and Control centre
– A useful reminder in the midst of confusion
Or
• Provide one for each team member
– Laminated for durability
– Key contact details or maps could be printed
on the reverse side
INFORMATION
• Define the Situation
• Gather the Facts
• Establish Communications
• Knowledge may be incomplete
• What do we expect to achieve?
STRATEGY
• Assess the Situation, Risks and Threats
• Do we need more information?
• What are the timeframes?
• Develop a viable Strategy
POWERS
• What Powers might be needed?
• Who has those Powers?
• What is our Policy?
• How do we invoke those Powers?
• What does our Policy suggest
ACTION & REVIEW
• Respond
• Inform
• Record
• Monitor
• Repeat the cycle
Until the Incident is Over
• Review
When the Incident is Over
THROUGHOUT
• Log and Record
• Retain notes and
records as Evidence
• Beware of Fatigue
OPTIONS
• What are the Options?
• Do we need more information?
At each stage, check the outcome against
• What are the timeframes?
our Mission and Value Statement
• Develop a viable Strategy
• Consider the effect of further surprises and problems
Question
How could we make
practical use of such
a reference chart?
Implementation
• Successful, dependable and defendable
emergency decision making needs a
robust process
• A logic-based protocol leads to sound
decisions which everybody will respect,
accept and adhere to
• Roles, responsibilities and relationships must
be defined and developed
Learning from Hindsight
POST- EVENT REVIEW
• Consider reviewing in reverse order
• Do the outcomes and consequences relate to
the ideals of the organisation?
• Continue in reverse sequence
– Outcome, then Action, Options, Powers, Strategy,
Information and underlying Values
– Do those values still relate to, or represent, the
aims and purposes of the organisation?
The D I C E Toolkit
• DICE - The Decision Model.docx *
− A full descriptive document
• DICE - The Decision Model.pptx *
− Introductory presentation
• DICE Workshop.pptx *
− An internal workshop for you to
train your decision makers
*** .doc and .ppt versions can also be made available
Members can obtain their copy of the
D I C E Toolkit from the
Business Continuity Institute
at
www.thebci.org