Federal R&D Budget: Context and Current State of Play Matt Hourihan September 27, 2014 for the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policyprogram Why Does the Federal R&D Budget Matter? National R&D by Funder Expenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars $500 $450 $400 Other $350 $300 Industry $250 Federal $200 $150 $100 $50 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 $0 Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS National R&D by Funder Share of total expenditures 100% 90% 80% Other 70% 60% Industry 50% Federal 40% 30% 20% 10% 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0% Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS Character of R&D By Funder, 2011 Expenditures in billions of dollars $300 $250 Development $200 Applied Research $150 $100 Basic Research $50 $0 Federal Industry Other Source: NSF, National Patterns of R&D Resources survey. © 2014 AAAS Interaction Between Public and Industrial R&D Industrial R&D projects often draw on public research findings, instruments, techniques Many industry operatives place high value on info about public research Fair evidence for public research as complement to/inducer of private R&D and innovation Workforce, networks, spillovers Some sources: Cohen, Nelson, Walsh, Management Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, Jan. 2002; Salter and Martin, Research Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, March 2001; Toole, Research Policy, Vol. 41, No 1, Feb. 2012; Blume-Kohout, Journal of Policy Analysis and Mgmt, Vol 31, No. 3, Summer 2012 University R&D Funding by Source expenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars $70 Other Sources $60 $50 Institutional Funds $40 Industry $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2014 AAAS State and Local Federal Recent (and Not-So-Recent) History Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2015 14.0% 2.5% 12.0% 2.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.5% 1.0% R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale) 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) 0.0% Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2015. FY 2015 is the President's request. © 2014 AAAS There is no actual R&D budget and only limited coordination of “the R&D budget” We don’t know what funding levels are optimal “Politics is who gets what, when, and how.” - Harold Lasswell “Budgeting is about values, and it’s about choices.” – Rep. Rosa DeLauro BCA takes effect: first year of caps Sequestration kicks in (delayed and reduced by the American Taxpayer Relief Act) Yearlong budget warfare resolved by Bipartisan Budget Act (restores some funding in FY14, sets table for FY15) Current Year: Where Are We? Some discretionary funding restored but this only keeps things flat President’s budget released in March Flat funding overall Limited prioritization (low-carbon energy, neuroscience, advanced manufacturing, highspeed rail, NASA industry partnerships, extramural ag research) Extra funding proposed & ignored House: 7 of 12 bills passed; Senate: none FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending Bill Estimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Dept. of Defense S&T 2012 Commerce, Justice, Science 2013 2014 Energy & Water Agriculture 2015 Request Interior and Environment 2015 House Labor, HHS, Education* 2015 Senate *Not yet introduced in House. FY 2012 = 100%. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports. FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS Agency Notes DOE: differing takes on ITER, climate research, renewables and efficiency v. fossil fuels NASA: Appropriations way above request; varying numbers in many places (Earth, Planetary, Astro, Aero); exploration funding? NSF: Social and geo targeted NOAA climate research cut in House; boosts for NIST labs Biodefense facility funding for DHS Looking Ahead Continuing resolution Lame duck omnibus? FY 2016 and beyond – back to “postsequester” levels What it all means: very tight fiscal room, broad-based growth unlikely But growth in targeted programs? Federal Nondefense R&D Under Various Scenarios billions of constant 2014 dollars $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 Original BCA/ATRA Caps Actual Spending Recovery Act Post-Sequestration Ryan/Murray Deal Changes President's Request Source: AAAS R&D reports and analyses of agency and legislative documents. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY 2015 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © AAAS 2014 For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/program/rd -budget-and-policy-program