The Federal R&D Budget

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The Federal R&D

Budget: Context,

Overview, Outlook

Matt Hourihan

January 28, 2015

for the AWIS Leadership Series 2015

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budgetand-policy-program

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and

OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB

Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

 Phase 1: Internal agency discussions and planning

 Joint guidance from OMB / OSTP on S&T (midsummer)

 Agencies deliver budget justifications to OMB (early fall)

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and

OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB

Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

 Phase 2: OMB performs multi-stage review, responds to agencies

 Budget proposals are finalized in January

 President presents the proposed budget to Congress early

February

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and

OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB

Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

 Phase 3: Congress gets involved

 Approves budget resolution: spending targets, reconciliation

 302(b) allocations

 Approps committees write/approve 12 appropriations bills

 12 subcommittees: one for each bill

 “President proposes, Congress disposes”

That’s How It’s Supposed to Work,

Anyway…

 FY10: Final omnibus in December (~3 months late)

 FY11: No Budget Res; full-year CR in April (six months late)

 FY12: No Budget Res; minibus/megabus (2-3 months late)

 FY13: FISCAL CLIFF; final approps in March (5 months late)

 FY14: No Budget Res; budget 2 months late; SHUTDOWN; final approps in January

 FY15: Budget 1 month late; final approps in December

BCA takes effect: first year of caps

Sequestration kicks in

(delayed and reduced by the

American

Taxpayer Relief

Act)

Budget warfare resolved by

Bipartisan

Budget Act

(restores some funding in FY14,

FY15)

The Fiscal Context for FY 2015

 Congress keeps (partially) restoring funding

 FY15: 21% reduction in cuts

 Discretionary spending cap is only 0.2% above FY14 before inflation

Very little room for any sort of program growth…

 …reflected in the President’s budget

R&D in the FY15 Base Budget percent change from FY14, constant dollars

DOE Defense

DOE Energy Programs

US Geological Survey

NIST

NOAA

Transportation

DOD Other

DOE Science

Agriculture

National Institutes of Health

NASA

Veterans Affairs

National Science Foundation

Environ Protection Agency

DOD S&T

Homeland Security

TOTAL

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Source: AAAS analysis of the FY 2015 President's Budget. Does not include additional funding proposed via Opportunity, Growth, and Security Initiative. NOTE: Inflation is 1.7%. © 2014 AAAS

Admin R&D Priorities for FY15

 Department of Energy: NNSA, renewables and efficiency,

ARPA-E

 Neuroscience

 NASA: industry partnerships

 Transportation: highways and high-performance rail

 Extramural ag research

 Advanced Manufacturing

 Environmental research

 Plus: an extra $5.3 billion in the “Opportunity, Growth and

Security Initiative”

FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending Bill

Estimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

Dept. of

Defense S&T

Commerce,

Justice,

Science

Energy &

Water

Agriculture Interior and

Environment

Labor, HHS,

Education*

2012 2013 2014 2015 Request 2015 House 2015 Senate 2015 Omnibus

*Not introduced in House.

CJS bill includes NSF, NASA, Commerce. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports.

FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS

Notes on Appropriations

 Some notable gainers:

 DOD, NSF research

 NIH Alzheimer’s research

 NASA (especially Planetary Science, Aeronautics, exploration)

 USDA: Poultry science center funding, AFRI

 NOAA Research

 Modest increases for NIST, USGS

 NSF construction, BRAIN Initiative fully funded

Notes on Appropriations

 Most NIH institutes: sub-inflation

 Mixed outcomes for Office of Science programs, energy technology programs

 EPA, NASA Earth Science cut

 No high-performance rail R&D

 Omnibus also included ~$500 billion for Ebola-related research and clinical trials

 Excluded DHS

 Most agencies ahead of the discretionary curve

Looking ahead to FY16…

 Back to sequester levels?

 President to propose cap increase

 Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?

 Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged

 Debt limit, entitlement growth

 Reconciliation strategy?

For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/program/rd

-budget-and-policy-program

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