Setting Targets for the
English Baccalaureate
Andrew Lyth
Research Associate, CEM
London, January 2012
• For the last few years MidYIS and Yellis have calculated
pupils’ probabilities of achieving measures such as 5+
A*-C or 5+A*-C with English and Maths.
• We have done this by matching pupils’ MidYIS/Yellis
scores to their later GCSE data, and then applying a
technique called logistic regression.
• The English Baccalaureate (Ebacc), introduced in
November 2010, is a similar kind of measure but it
presents particular problems for target-setting.
Probability of achieving 5+ A*-C inc Eng and Maths by MidYIS
score, GCSE 2011 state schools, modelled by logistic regression:
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
EBacc requirements. Achieve grade C or higher in:
• English
• Mathematics
• Science, either
– Double science; Science and Additional science; Having taken
all three separate sciences achieve grade C in two or more of
them
• Humanities, either
– History; Ancient History; Geography
• Languages, either
– Modern foreign languages; Latin; Greek; Biblical Hebrew; Hindi
Not all pupils take a set of subjects that
make them eligible for the EBacc:
• In 2010 in English Maintained Schools only 22%
of pupils were entered for a set of subjects that
covered all the requirements of the EBacc
• In comparison 96% of pupils were entered for
subject that covered the requirements for 5 or
more GCSEs at A*-C inc English and Maths
• Pupils who take an E-Bacc set of GCSE subjects are not
typical of pupils as a whole:
All GCSE
choices
state
schools
Mean
MidYIS
score
105
E-Bacc
choices
State
schools
114
All GCSE
choices,
indep
schools
E-Bacc
choices
Indep
schools
119
• High ability and also high value-added …
121
Probability of achieving 5+ A*-C inc Eng and Maths by GCSE
choices, state schools:
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
All pupils
0.6
0.5
E-Bacc pupils
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
• The proportion of pupils taking an EBacc set of subjects
is expected to increase over time, so the EBacc group
will become less “exclusive” over time.
• In the meantime any probabilities based on an EBacc
group of pupils are likely to be unrealistically high when
applied to pupils in general.
• In making estimates of pupils’ probabilities of achieving
the EBacc should we base those predictions on data
from the high value-added EBacc group?
• Or should we predict as though pupils had average
value-added?
Probability of achieving EBacc by MidYIS score
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Ebacc group (High VA)
Zero value-added
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
Andrew.Lyth@cem.dur.ac.uk