T A B L E www.worldenergyoutlook.org O F C O N T E N T S © IEA/OECD, 2014 PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B OUTLOOK FOR NUCLEAR POWER PART C AFRICA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES A FRAMEWORK FOR OUR ENERGY FUTURE 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK 5 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 6 RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 7 ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK 8 FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIES 9 NUCLEAR POWER TODAY AND DECISIONS TO COME 10 PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR POWER TO 2040 11 THE IMPLICATIONS OF NUCLEAR POWER 12 ENERGY IN AFRICA TODAY 13 OUTLOOK FOR AFRICAN ENERGY TO 2040 14 AFRICAN ENERGY ISSUES IN FOCUS 15 BUILDING A PATH TO PROSPERITY 16 ANNEXES © IEA/OECD, 2014 Foreword Acknowledgements Executive Summary 3 5 23 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 31 1 2 3 A framework for our energy future 33 Scope of the report Methodological approach Modelling framework Defining the scenarios Main non-policy assumptions Economic growth Demographic trends Carbon-dioxide prices Technology Energy supply costs and prices Oil prices Natural gas prices Coal prices 34 35 35 36 39 39 42 44 45 47 49 50 52 Global energy trends to 2040 53 Energy trends by scenario Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Inter-regional trade Energy investment Energy-related CO2 emissions Recent developments Emissions and climate impact in the New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario 54 56 56 74 80 84 86 86 87 89 Oil market outlook 95 Global overview Demand Regional trends Sectoral trends Trends by product Production Resources and reserves Production prospects Refining and trade Trade in crude oil and oil products 96 98 98 101 108 110 110 114 131 133 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 4 Natural gas market outlook 135 Global overview Demand Regional trends Sectoral trends Production Resources and reserves Gas production trends Outlook for gas supply security Rising gas import needs A growing cast of gas suppliers Implications for the main importing regions 136 137 137 143 146 146 146 158 159 161 166 5 Coal market outlook 171 Overview Demand Regional trends Sectoral trends Supply Reserves and resources Production Trade Pricing of internationally traded coal Costs and investment Regional insights China United States India Europe 172 176 176 179 181 181 181 183 185 189 191 191 194 197 199 Power sector outlook 201 Context Electricity demand Electricity supply Overview Power generation capacity Power generation Investment Power generation costs Electricity-related carbon-dioxide emissions Electricity prices Industry Residential Regional focus United States 202 204 208 208 208 215 217 221 225 226 227 229 230 230 6 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 European Union Japan China India Middle East 7 8 9 231 233 234 235 236 Renewable energy outlook 239 Recent trends and policies Outlook by scenario Renewables outlook by sector in the New Policies Scenario Global and regional trends Sectoral trends Power generation Transport Industry and buildings Avoided CO2 emissions Renewables outlook by source in the New Policies Scenario Bioenergy Hydropower Wind power Solar photovoltaics Other renewables Economics of renewables Investment Subsidies 240 241 243 243 244 246 251 254 255 257 257 259 261 264 270 271 271 274 Energy efficiency outlook 279 Introduction Current status of energy efficiency Recent progress Recent policy developments Outlook for energy efficiency Trends by fuel Trends by sector Energy efficiency and competitiveness How energy efficiency affects international competitiveness Scope for energy efficiency to cut costs in energy-intensive industries Impact of improved energy efficiency on economic competitiveness Broader benefits Household spending on energy Fossil-fuel import bills CO2 emissions 280 280 280 282 285 287 291 300 301 302 308 310 310 311 312 Fossil-fuel subsidies 313 Overview 314 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 Identifying the problem Defining fossil-fuel subsidies Forms of subsidy and why they exist Why reform is needed Measuring their size Methodology Estimates of fossil-fuel subsidies in 2013 Impacts of fossil-fuel subsidies on clean energy technologies Low-carbon power generation Energy efficiency Implementing reforms Recent policy developments Case studies of reform Guidelines on best practice Part B: OUTLOOK FOR NUCLEAR POWER 10 11 315 315 315 317 318 318 320 324 324 326 328 329 329 340 345 Nuclear power today and decisions to come 347 Prospects for nuclear power to 2040 383 Context Historical and current developments Reactor technology and designs Policy framework Countries with existing programmes Potential newcomer countries Economics and financing Economics of existing capacity Economics of new builds Financing Facing public concerns Issues across the lifecycle of nuclear power Risk, perception and public opinion Introduction New Policies Scenario Approach and key assumptions Nuclear power capacity and generation Investment needs and associated costs Regional trends Low Nuclear Case Developments that could slow the expansion of nuclear power Assumptions Nuclear power capacity and generation High Nuclear Case Assumptions Nuclear power capacity and generation 348 348 353 356 358 361 362 365 366 373 375 377 381 384 384 384 386 391 394 400 400 401 402 403 403 404 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 12 450 Scenario Outlook for nuclear fuel 405 406 The implications of nuclear power 411 Introduction Energy security Energy trade, self-sufficiency and diversity National economic considerations Environment CO2 emissions High-level radioactive waste disposal Water Policy priorities for nuclear power Part C: AFRICA ENERGY OUTLOOK 13 14 Energy in Africa today Context Economy Demography Business environment and infrastructure Governance Access to modern energy Access to electricity Access to clean cooking facilities Overview of energy demand Power sector End-use sectors Overview of energy resources and supply Oil and natural gas Renewables Other Energy trade Energy affordability Outlook for African energy to 2040 Projecting future developments Economic and population growth Policy environment Overview of energy demand trends Outlook for the power sector Electricity demand Electricity supply Electricity transmission and trade Outlook for other energy-consuming sectors Residential 412 413 414 418 419 420 423 427 427 431 433 434 434 438 439 440 441 444 448 450 453 459 461 462 469 474 475 478 483 484 484 487 490 493 493 495 500 500 502 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 15 16 Transport Productive uses Outlook for energy supply Oil Natural gas Coal Renewables International energy trade Crude oil Oil products Natural gas Coal Energy and the environment Energy-related CO2 emissions Deforestation and forest degradation 503 505 507 507 512 516 518 524 524 525 526 529 530 531 532 African energy issues in focus 535 Building a path to prosperity 575 Five features of Africa’s energy outlook Electricity access: what is the path to power? Biomass: here to stay? Is oil the way forward for Nigeria? South Africa: will energy diversity deliver? Mozambique and Tanzania: how to get best value from gas? Towards a better-functioning sub-Saharan energy sector Three keys to Africa’s energy future Investment in the region’s energy supply Making the most of Africa’s resources Regional energy co-operation and integration An African Century Case Africa’s energy choices in a global context ANNEXES Annex A. Annex B. Annex C. Annex D. 536 536 545 552 560 568 576 579 579 589 593 595 598 601 Tables for scenario projections Policies and measures by scenario ĞĮŶŝƟŽŶƐ References 603 687 699 711 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 List of figures 2.20 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Figures for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future 1.1 Total primary energy demand and GDP in selected countries, 1971-2012 40 1.2 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario 49 1.3 Natural gas price by region in the New Policies Scenario 51 1.4 CoalpricerelativetogaspricebyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 52 umulativeenergy-relatedCO2 emissions by region in the C New Policies Scenario 89 2.21 Reductioninenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin450Scenariorelative to the New Policies Scenario 91 2.22 umulativeCO2emissionsreductionbysectorandregioninthe C 450ScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario 91 2.23 verageannualcapacityadditionsoflow-carbontechnologies A byscenarioandcumulativeCO2 savings in the power sector inthe450ScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario 92 Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040 World total primary energy demand by scenario 55 3.1 World oil demand and oil price by scenario 2.2 Fuel shares in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario 57 3.2 Growth in world oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 100 2.3 Primary energy demand growth by region and fuel type in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 3.3 57 I mpactoffuelswitchingandefficiencyonthechangeinglobaloil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 102 Incremental oil demand in selected non-OECD regions in the New Policies Scenario 59 World transport oil demand change by main products and sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 103 2.5 FuelsharesinglobalfinalenergyconsumptionintheNewPoliciesScenario 62 2.6 PrimaryenergydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 63 Discounted total annual costs of passenger light-duty vehicles in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 105 2.7 Primary energy demand growth by selected region in the NewPoliciesScenario 3.6 64 lobaldemandforpetrochemicalfeedstockbyoilproductinthe G NewPoliciesScenario 106 Energy demand and GDP per capita, and corresponding oil price intheNewPoliciesScenario 3.7 World oil demand growth by product in the New Policies Scenario 108 65 3.8 SchematicofthePRMSclassification 113 2.9 WorldenergydemandbyselectedsectorintheNewPoliciesScenario 69 3.9 2.10 Change in energy demand by sector and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 olumesofglobalconventionaloildiscoveredbydecadeversus V discoveries required in the New Policies Scenario 114 70 3.10 2.11 Weighted average spending on energy end-use by region in the New Policies Scenario hangeinoilproductionbyselectedregioninthe C New Policies Scenario 115 72 3.11 ChangeinworldoilproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario 118 Spending on energy end-use by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 3.12 TightoilproductionbycountryintheNewPoliciesScenario 120 72 3.13 OilproductionbytypeinMexicointheNewPoliciesScenario 125 2.13 Lifetimesoffossil-fuelanduraniumresources 75 3.14 ConventionaloilproductioninIranintheNewPoliciesScenario 129 2.14 Changeinenergyproductionbyregioninthe NewPoliciesScenario,2012-2040 76 3.15 OPECoilproductionbyregionandtypeintheNewPoliciesScenario 130 hangeinoilproductionrelativetothelevelin2013inthe C New Policies Scenario 3.16 79 AsianimportsversusMiddleEasternexportsofcrudeoilinthe New Policies Scenario 133 2.16 Worldfossil-fuelproductionandtradeintheNewPoliciesScenario 82 Figures for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 2.17 Value of net trade in fossil fuels in the New Policies Scenario 84 4.1 World natural gas demand by scenario 137 2.18 umulativeglobalenergysupplyinvestmentbyfuelandtype C in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 4.2 Natural gas demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 138 85 4.3 2.19 Global fossil-fuel energy-related CO2 emissions and total cumulativeCO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario aturalgasdemandintheMiddleEastbysectorinthe N New Policies Scenario 141 88 4.4 World natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 143 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.12 2.15 3.4 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 3.5 97 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 4.5 Change in natural gas demand by sector in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 144 4.6 WorldnaturalgasproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario 147 4.7 E stimatedmethaneemissionsassociatedwithoilandnaturalgas production,2012 154 hangeinnaturalgasproductioninselectedcountriesinthe C NewPoliciesScenario 156 4.9 Europeannaturalgasimportsbysource 160 4.10 S hareoftop-fiveproducersofoilandgasintotalproductioninthe NewPoliciesScenario 162 Inter-regional natural gas trade by pipeline and LNG in the NewPoliciesScenario 162 4.12 Inter-regionalLNGexportsbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario 163 4.13 NaturalgasimportsbysourcetoOECDEuropeintheNewPoliciesScenario 167 4.14 asimportsbysourcetoselectedAsianmarketsinthe G NewPoliciesScenario 168 4.8 4.11 5.16 Figures for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 ECDEuropecoalproduction,netimportsandimportdependency O in the New Policies Scenario 200 Figures for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 ElectricitydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 204 6.2 orldelectricityandtotalfinalenergyintensityinthe W New Policies Scenario 205 6.3 nnualelectricityconsumptionpercapitaandshareofelectricity A intotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyselectedregioninthe New Policies Scenario 207 6.4 WorldelectricityconsumptionbysectorintheNewPoliciesScenario 207 6.5 owergenerationcapacityflowsbysourceinthe P New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 210 6.6 etchangeinworldpowergenerationcapacitybyfueltype N and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 211 WorldelectricitygenerationbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario 215 6.8 WorldelectricitygenerationbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario 216 6.9 S hareofelectricitygenerationbysourceandselectedregion in the New Policies Scenario 217 6.10 WorldinvestmentinthepowersectorbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 218 6.11 umulativeworldinvestmentinthepowersectorbygenerating C type, 2014-2040 220 6.12 umulativeglobalpowersectorinvestmentbytypeandselected C region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 221 T otalpowergenerationcostsbyselectedregioninthe New Policies Scenario, 2020 222 6.14 T otalpowergenerationcostsbyselectedregioninthe New Policies Scenario, 2040 223 6.15 E lectricity-relatedCO2 emissions and carbon intensity of electricity generationintheNewPoliciesScenario 226 I ndustrialelectricityspendingincludingtaxesandsavingsdue toenergyefficiencyimprovementsbyselectedregioninthe New Policies Scenario 228 esidentialelectricityspendingincludingtaxesandsavingsdue R toenergyefficiencyimprovementsbyselectedregioninthe New Policies Scenario 229 6.18 UnitedStateselectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the New Policies Scenario 230 6.7 S hareofworldenergydemandandelectricitygeneration by fuel and scenario 173 5.2 Annualchangeincoaldemandbykeyregion 178 5.3 I ncrementalcoaldemandbykeysector,regionanddecadeinthe New Policies Scenario 179 5.4 ShareofworldcoalproductionbykeycountryintheNewPoliciesScenario 182 5.5 S hareofworldcoaltradebytypeandkeycountryinthe New Policies Scenario 185 S teamcoalpricesincoastalChina,EuropeandtheUnitedStates in the New Policies Scenario 187 F OBcashcostsandmarketvolumeforglobalseabornesteamcoal trade in the New Policies Scenario 188 5.8 AverageFOBcashcostsforkeysteamcoalexporters 189 5.9 orldcokingandsteamcoalproductionbytypeofmineinthe W New Policies Scenario 190 S hareofChinainglobalcoalmarketsandChina’scoalimport dependence in the New Policies Scenario 191 5.11 Majorcoalminesandcoal-firedpowerplantsinChina,2013 193 5.12 Cash costs of steam coal to southern coastal China, 2020 194 5.13 UnitedStatespowergenerationfuelmixintheNewPoliciesScenario 195 6.19 5.14 Coal deliveries to the power sector under contract in the UnitedStatesbysourceasof2013 E uropeanUnionelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the New Policies Scenario 232 196 6.20 GlobalcoaltradebymajorimportingregionsintheNewPoliciesScenario 199 J apanelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the New Policies Scenario 234 5.6 5.7 5.10 5.15 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 6.13 6.16 6.17 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 6.21 6.22 6.23 hinaelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the C New Policies Scenario IndiaelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the NewPoliciesScenario MiddleEastelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the New Policies Scenario 234 236 237 Figures for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.19 7.20 S hareofglobalrenewablesconsumptionbysectorinthe New Policies Scenario Shareofglobalrenewablesconsumptionbysectorandregion in the New Policies Scenario World renewable energy balances in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 Incrementalglobalelectricitygenerationfromrenewablesbytype in the New Policies Scenario Incrementalelectricitygenerationfromrenewablesbyregioninthe New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 Biofuelsconsumptioninroadtransportbyregioninthe New Policies Scenario Heat demand provided by renewable sources in the buildings and industry sectors by region in the New Policies Scenario Global CO2 emissions avoided from greater use of renewables intheNewPoliciesScenario Global bioenergy use by sector in the New Policies Scenario Productionofbiofuelsbytypeandtotalbiofuelsdemandbyregion in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 and 2040 HydropowercapacityadditionsbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Hydropowergenerationandshareoftotalgenerationinthe NewPoliciesScenario Installed wind power capacity by type and region in the NewPoliciesScenario,2040 Windpowercapacityadditionsandreplacements,andshareoftotal generationbyselectedregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Solar PV capacity by type and region in the NewPoliciesScenario,2040 Illustrativeelectricityloadcurveforhigh-demandsummerday SolarPVcapacityadditionsandshareofmaximumPVoutputinpeak demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Global investment in renewables-based power capacity by source in the New Policies Scenario Changeinglobalrenewablespowersubsidies,2012to2013 Renewables power subsidies by source in the top-15 countries, 2013 243 244 245 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 247 248 8.7 8.8 252 8.9 255 8.10 256 257 8.11 8.12 259 260 8.13 260 8.14 263 264 266 268 270 272 276 277 Global renewables subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario Global renewables subsidies by region in the New Policies Scenario 278 278 Figures for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook 8.6 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 7.21 7.22 8.15 8.16 8.17 8.18 Annual change in primary energy intensity Transmissionanddistributionlossrates Factorscontributingtoglobalsavingsinprimaryenergydemand intheNewPoliciesScenariorelativetoCurrentPoliciesScenario Globalprimaryenergysavingsfromenergyefficiencybyfuel andsectorintheNewPoliciesScenariorelativetothe CurrentPoliciesScenario,2040 Globalfossil-fueldemandandcumulativeenergyefficiencysavings by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Changeinglobalfinalenergyconsumptionbyselectedfuel, sectorandcontributingfactorintheNewPoliciesScenario Electricitydemandforlightinginbuildingsbycontributingfactor Marketshareinglobalpassengerlight-dutyvehiclesalesinthe New Policies Scenario Reductioninenergyintensityincementproductionbycontributing factor in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 Compositionofvalueaddedinchemicalsexportsbycountry of origin, 2009 Estimatedunitproductioncostofaplasticbottleandanaluminium beverage can in selected regions, 2013 Averageestimatedelectricitypricesforelectricarcfurnaces in selected countries, 2013 Change in energy spending and value added in the chemicals industry, 2000-2011 Diffusionofcumulativeenergyefficiencyspendingoncars worldwide through the manufacturing and services sectors in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 Change in energy intensity and value added by sector in the EfficientWorldScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario,2030 Shareofenergyexpendituresinhouseholdincomeinselected regions in the New Policies Scenario Oil and natural gas import bills and avoided import bills due toenergyefficiencybyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the NewPoliciesScenariorelativetotheCurrentPoliciesScenario 281 282 285 286 287 288 293 295 299 301 303 305 307 308 309 310 311 312 Figures for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies 9.1 9.2 Economic value of global fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel ExampleofthecalculationofsubsidiesforoilproductsinIndonesia,2013 314 320 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 E conomicvalueoffossil-fuelconsumptionsubsidiesbyfuelfor the top 25 countries, 2013 Value of fossil-fuel subsidies in selected countries and rate ofsubsidisationoffossilfuels,2013 ElectricitygeneratingcostsintheMiddleEast,2020 Paybackperiodstoinvestinmoreefficientenergy-consuming equipmentinselectedMiddleEastcountries Fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel in Egypt Gasoline and diesel prices in Indonesia compared to spot prices in Singapore Fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel in Nigeria, 2013 Criticalstepsofaprocesstoreformfossil-energysubsidies 11.7 hangeinshareofnuclearpowergenerationandcapacityby C selected region in the New Policies Scenario 391 11.8 uclearpowercapacityandshareofgenerationbyselectedregion N in the New Policies Scenario 395 11.9 E UnuclearpowercapacityintheNewPoliciesScenarioand retirementprofilesunderdifferentlifetimeextensionassumptions 397 11.10 Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case 402 11.11 Nuclear power capacity by region, by scenario and case 405 321 323 325 328 332 335 338 340 11.12 Globalnuclearpowercapacitybyscenarioandcase 406 11.13 Nuclearfuelcycleandcompetitionfromsecondarysourcesoptions 407 11.14 UraniumdemandintheNewPoliciesScenariobyregion 409 Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER 11.15 U raniumdemandintheNewPoliciesScenariocomparedwith existingandplannedproduction 410 Figures for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come Figures for Chapter 12: The implications of nuclear power 10.1 10.2 10.3 Reactorconstructionstartsandtimelineofevents Ageprofileofnuclearcapacitybyselectedregion Overview of basic nuclear reactor technologies and their share of constructionstarts 10.4 Status of nuclear power programmes, end-2013 10.5 Costsinthelifecycleofanuclearpowerplant 10.6 Historicalovernightcostofconstructionfornuclearpowerplants inFranceandtheUnitedStates 10.7 Historicalconstructiontimesandcapacityfactorsfornuclearpower plantsbyselectedregion 10.8 Sensitivityofnucleargeneratingcoststochangesinparameters 10.9 Generatingcostsforselectednewpowerplantsunderdifferentfuel price and CO2priceassumptions 10.10 Ownershipofnuclearpowergenerationassets,2012 349 352 353 357 364 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 uclearpowergeneratingcostsfornewplantsinselectedregions N intheNewPoliciesScenario,2030 World installed nuclear power capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Installednuclearpowercapacitybykeyregioninthe New Policies Scenario Nuclearpowercapacityadditionsandretirementsbykeyregion in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 Globalnuclearpowercapacityadditionsandretirementsinthe New Policies Scenario NuclearpowergenerationbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 414 12.2 World natural gas and steam coal trade in the New Policies Scenario and Low Nuclear Case 415 etenergyself-sufficiencyinselectedregionsintheNewPoliciesScenario N andtheLowNuclearCase 416 owergenerationmixbyselectedregionintheNewPoliciesScenario P and Low Nuclear Case 418 12.5 Natural gas and coal import bills by selected region in the New Policies Scenario and Low Nuclear Case 419 12.6 lobalenergy-relatedCO2 emissions and CO2 emissions avoided by G nuclear in the New Policies Scenario 421 CumulativeCO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 1971-2040 421 Average cost of CO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 422 Change in global CO2 emission indicators in the Low Nuclear Case relativetotheNewPoliciesScenario 423 12.3 12.4 368 370 371 374 12.7 12.8 386 387 12.9 12.10 W orldcumulativespentnuclearfueldischargedsince1971 intheNewPoliciesScenario 426 387 388 389 390 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 hangeinglobalcapacityandgenerationintheLowNuclearCase C compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2040 367 Figures for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040 11.1 12.1 Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk Figures for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today MapofAfricaandmainsub-regionsforthisstudy 435 13.2 GDPofsub-SaharanAfricaandGermany(PPPterms),2013 13.1 436 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 13.3 Figures for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040 umberofcountriesbylevelofnationalincomeandnumber N of people in sub-Saharan Africa living on less than $1.25 per day 437 13.4 Growth in sub-Saharan trade by region 437 13.5 urationofelectricaloutagesandimpactonbusinesssales D in selected countries 440 14.2 14.3 umberandshareofpeoplewithoutaccesstoelectricity N by country, 2012 445 14.4 447 14.5 448 14.6 13.6 13.7 verageelectricityconsumptionperhouseholdinsub-SaharanAfrica, A 2012,andindicativeconsumptionlevelsbyappliance 13.8 L argestpopulationsrelyingonthetraditionaluseofsolidbiomass forcookinginsub-SaharanAfricabysub-region,2012 13.9 13.10 13.11 Fuelwoodconsumptionpercapitaperdayinselectedcountries Mainfuelusedbyhouseholdsforcooking Populationandpercapitaenergydemandbycountryin sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 Sub-SaharanAfricaprimaryenergymixbysub-region,2012 Oil product demand growth by sub-region, 2000-2012 ElectricityconsumptioninAfricabyend-usesectorand sub-region, 2012 Electricitydemandmetbyback-upgeneratorsbysub-region,2012 Transmissionanddistributionlossesandlossrates,2012 Installed grid-based capacity by type and sub-region Carownershipinselectedcountries,2012 Sub-SaharanAfricanaturalgas,coalandoilresources,end-2013 Globaldiscoveriesofoilandgas Majorenergyinfrastructureandmainhydrocarbonbasins Sub-SaharanAfricaoilproductionbycountryandtotaldemand Sub-SaharanAfricanaturalgasproductionbycountry andtotaldemand ExistinghydropowercapacityandpotentialinAfrica Indicativelevelisedcostsofelectricityforon-gridandoff-gridtechnologies in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 CrudeoilexportsfromAfrica’swestcoastbydestination Africa’smajorinternationalenergytradeflowsbysub-region,2012 OilproductpricedifferentialsbetweenNigeria,Angola and neighbouring countries, 2013 Kerosene price and subsidy in selected countries, 2013 Grid electricity prices by end-use sector in selected countries, 2013 Household energy spending as share of income 13.12 13.13 13.14 13.15 13.16 13.17 13.18 13.19 13.20 13.21 13.22 13.23 13.24 13.25 13.26 13.27 13.28 13.29 13.30 13.31 449 450 451 452 453 454 456 457 458 460 462 463 465 468 469 471 472 475 477 479 479 480 481 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 14.1 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.10 14.11 14.12 14.13 14.14 14.15 14.16 14.17 14.18 14.19 14.20 14.21 14.22 14.23 Growth in GDP and GDP per capita by region in the New Policies Scenario Populationgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricabysub-region Total primary energy demand and demand per capita in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario Primary energy demand in sub-Saharan Africa by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand in sub-Saharan Africa and the share from those that gain access in the New Policies Scenario Electricitygenerationbyfuelinsub-SaharanAfricainthe NewPoliciesScenario,2012and2040 ElectricitygenerationbyfuelintheNewPoliciesScenario Changeinresidentialenergydemandbyfuelinsub-SaharanAfrica in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 Electricitydemandperelectrifiedhouseholdinsub-SaharanAfrica in the New Policies Scenario Vehiclestockinsub-SaharanAfricabytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario Oil demand in transport in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario Finalenergyconsumptioninproductiveusesinsub-SaharanAfrica in the New Policies Scenario Change in GDP by sector and related energy use in the NewPoliciesScenario Oilproductioninsub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario Netpresentvalueofoildevelopmentsatdifferentrisklevelsusing post-2030costassumptions Oilproductioninsub-SaharancountriesotherthanNigeria and Angola in the New Policies Scenario Naturalgasproductioninsub-Saharancountriesin2012andchange to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario Destinationofgasproductioninsub-SaharanAfricainthe NewPoliciesScenario Increase in renewables-based capacity by sub-region and type in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040 Sub-Saharanhydropowercapacityandremainingpotentialinthe New Policies Scenario S ub-SaharanAfricacrudeoilexportsandimportsinthe New Policies Scenario Import dependence for selected oil products in sub-Saharan Africa (excludingSouthAfrica)intheNewPoliciesScenario LNGexportsfromsub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario 485 486 490 491 494 496 498 502 503 504 504 505 506 507 508 509 514 516 518 522 525 526 527 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 14.24 I ndicativedeliveredcostsofLNGfromselectedsourcestoEurope andmainAsianimportmarkets,2025 14.25 Energy-related CO2 emissions by selected country and region in the New Policies Scenario 16.3 528 531 Figures for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.10 15.11 15.12 15.13 15.14 15.15 15.16 15.17 15.18 15.19 opulationwithoutaccesstoelectricitybysub-regionin P sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario Electricity access by region in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario Electricitydemandfromthepopulationgainingaccesstoelectricity in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario OptimalsplitbygridtypeinNigeriaandEthiopia,basedon anticipatedexpansionofmaintransmissionlines Indicativelevelisedcostsofelectricityforon-grid,mini-grid andoff-gridtechnologiesinsub-SaharanAfrica,2012 Technologymixformini-gridandoff-gridpowergenerationin sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 Householdenergyconsumptionforcookingbyfuelin sub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario Populationwithandwithoutcleancookingaccessin sub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario Primaryfuel/technologyusedbyhouseholdsforcookingin sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario NigeriaandAngolaconventionaloilproductioninthe New Policies Scenario ComparisonofplannedprojectsinNigeriaandAngola AveragedailyoilproductionanddistributioninNigeria,2013 GasproductioninNigeriaintheNewPoliciesScenario Electricity demand growth by sector in South Africa in the NewPoliciesScenario South Africa mine-by-mine coal supply curve and the average coal exportprice,2013 Levelisedcostsofpowergenerationbyfuelandtechnology inSouthAfrica MaingasfieldsandinfrastructureinMozambiqueandTanzania GasconsumptionandexportinMozambiqueandTanzania in the New Policies Scenario Indicativecapitalintensityandgasutilisationfordifferent large-scale uses of gas 537 538 539 541 542 543 546 List of tables 546 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 552 553 554 558 560 562 olicyactionsandoutcomesintheAfricanCenturyCase P Investmentinenergysupplyinsub-SaharanAfrica 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 583 583 584 591 595 598 599 RealGDPgrowthassumptionsbyregion Populationassumptionsbyregion CO2priceassumptionsinselectedregionsbyscenario Recentdevelopmentsandkeyconditionsforfasterdeployment ofcleanenergytechnologies Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 41 43 45 46 48 Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040 567 569 572 2.5 574 2.6 Worldprimaryenergydemandbyfuelandscenario World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario WorldprimaryenergydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Number of people without access to modern energy services by region, 2012 Energynetimport/exportsharesbyfuelandregioninthe New Policies Scenario Energy- and climate-related indicators by Scenario 56 58 64 74 81 93 Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 578 579 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 580 Tables for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 565 Figures for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity 16.1 16.2 S haresofinvestmentbysectorinsub-SaharanAfricainthe New Policies Scenario 16.4 Relationshipbetweenindicatorsforgovernanceandforgrosscapital formationinsub-SaharanAfrica 16.5 Relationshipbetweenindicatorsforgovernanceandforqualityof electricity supply in sub-Saharan Africa 16.6 Ownershipstructureofoilandgasoutput,andpowergeneration capacity in sub-Saharan Africa 16.7 Estimatedfiscalrevenuefromhydrocarbonextractionin sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario 16.8 GDPgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricaintheAfricanCenturyCase and the New Policies Scenario 16.9 Increaseinregionalelectricitygenerationandtradein sub-Saharan Africa in the African Century Case versus the New Policies Scenario, 2040 16.10 Country-by-countrygrowthinelectricityconsumptionpercapita in sub-Saharan Africa by scenario 3.1 3.2 Oilandliquidsdemandbyregionandscenario Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 96 98 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 Oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Remaining recoverable oil resources and proven reserves, end-2013 Oilproductionandliquidssupplybysourceandscenario WorldoilproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario Non-OPECoilproductionintheNewPoliciesScenario OPECoilproductionintheNewPoliciesScenario Global total demand for liquids, products and crude throughput in the New Policies Scenario WorldrefiningcapacityandrefineryrunsintheNewPoliciesScenario 101 111 115 117 124 127 132 132 4.4 4.5 4.6 Naturalgasproductionbymajorregionandscenario Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by typeandregion,end-2013 GlobalproductionofunconventionalgasintheNewPoliciesScenario NaturalgasproductionbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario NaturalgasnettradebyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario 137 139 146 148 149 161 Tables for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Coaldemand,productionandtradebyscenario Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario CoalproductionbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Inter-regional coal trade in the New Policies Scenario Coal-related indicators for China in the New Policies Scenario 174 177 183 184 192 Tables for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 7.3 7.4 206 208 212 213 219 Worldrenewablesconsumptionbyscenario Renewables-basedelectricitygenerationbyregioninthe NewPoliciesScenario Cumulativerenewablecapacityretirementsbyregionand source in the New Policies Scenario Cumulativerenewablecapacityadditionsbyregionand source in the New Policies Scenario 242 253 273 275 Tables for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook 8.1 8.3 8.4 Selectedenergyefficiencypoliciesannouncedorintroduced in 2013 and 2014 Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in buildings from energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in transport from energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in industry from energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario 284 292 294 297 Tables for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies 9.1 9.2 9.3 Recent developments in fossil-fuel subsidy reform around the world IncreasesforselectedproductsinEgypt,July2014 Summaryofexperiencewithfossil-fuelsubsidyreform in Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria 330 333 334 Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 eynuclearpowerstatisticsbyregion,end-2013 K SelectedGenerationIIIreactordesigns Key nuclear power-related policies and targets in selected countries with operable reactors Countriesconsideringintroductionofnuclearpower Relativeattributesofpowergenerationtechnologies AssumptionsusedtocalculategeneratingcostsinFigure10.9 Keypublicconsiderationsfornuclearpower 351 354 359 362 363 372 379 Tables for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040 246 11.1 11.2 249 11.3 250 11.4 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 7.7 Biofuelsconsumptioninroadtransportbytypeoffueland region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulativerenewableinvestmentsbyregionandtypeinthe New Policies Scenario Government support schemes for renewables-based electricity generationandquantificationmethod Tables for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come ElectricitydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Worldelectricitygenerationbysourceandscenario Cumulativepowerplantcapacityretirementsbyregionand source in the New Policies Scenario Cumulativepowerplantcapacityadditionsbyregionand source in the New Policies Scenario Cumulativeinvestmentinthepowersectorbyregionand type in the New Policies Scenario Tables for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook 7.1 7.2 7.6 8.2 Tables for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 4.2 4.3 7.5 eyassumptionsfornuclearpowerintheNewPoliciesScenario K Cumulativeglobalinvestmentandassociatedcosts in nuclear power in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 Nuclearpowercapacity,additionsandretirementsinthe New Policies Scenario and the High and Low Nuclear Cases World uranium resources 385 392 404 408 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 Tables for Chapter 12: The implications of nuclear power 12.1 12.2 S electedprojectionsintheNewPoliciesScenarioandLowNuclearCase Back-endfuelcyclestrategyandprogresstowardsrepositories forhigh-levelradioactivewastedisposalinselectedcountries Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040 412 425 Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk fricaoilresourcesandreserves A Africanaturalgasresourcesandreserves 466 467 Tables for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 DPgrowthratesinAfricabysub-regionintheNewPoliciesScenario G Selected energy policies and targets in sub-Saharan Africa Primary energy demand in Africa in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand in Africa in the New Policies Scenario TotalfinalenergyconsumptioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario OilproductioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario Oil product demand in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario NaturalgasproductioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario Forestbiomassstockandfuelwoodconsumptionin sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario 486 488 492 494 501 510 511 513 519 Tables for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus 15.1 15.2 15.3 T echnologycharacteristicsofdifferentcookingoptions ElectricitybalanceforSouthAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario MainnewupstreamgasprojectsinMozambiqueandTanzania 548 563 570 Tables for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity 16.1 I nvestmentinenergysupplyinsub-SaharanAfricainthe New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 581 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 ehicleoccupancy:emptyseatsandextrabarrels V Marinebunkers:aseachange? Whatistherightburdenofproofforunconventionaloilandgas? Mexico–startofanewoilandgasera? WhatwouldittakeforIrantobounceback? 104 109 112 125 129 Boxes for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 gasthirstyMiddleEast A DoesdepletionbringtheendoftheUSshaleboomintoview? Iswateraconstraintonshalegasproduction? Ittollsforthee:implicationsoftheUSLNGbusinessmodel WhataretheimplicationsoftheRussia-Chinagasagreement? 140 150 152 166 169 Boxes for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 5.2 First steps in using CCS technology with coal Coal demand in the roaring 2000s 175 178 Boxes for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 6.2 Keeping the lights on Whatmakesuptheelectricityprice 209 227 7.1 7.2 Hydropowerinsub-SaharanAfrica Sources of investment in non-hydro renewables for electricity 261 274 Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook 8.1 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Notable developments in energy policy in selected regions A change in the way the 450 Scenario is built in WEO-2014 Revisedpurchasingpowerparitydatashakesupglobal economicrankings ObstaclestoindustrialenergyefficiencyinAfrica 298 Boxes for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies Boxes for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future 37 39 42 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 54 61 70 73 90 Boxes for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook List of boxes 1.1 1.2 1.3 lobalenergyusemaintainsitssteadyupwardtrajectory G Technology,divergingpricesandfuelswitching Fossil-fueltransformationgetsmorecomplex Current status of energy access Reducing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook Tables for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today 13.1 13.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Towardsagreementondefining“subsidy” Howwecalculatethereference,or“right”,priceofafossilfuel HowdoIEAsubsidyestimatescomparewiththoseofotherorganisations? Indonesia’sinformationcampaignstowinsupportforsubsidyreform 316 319 322 336 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014 Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER Boxes for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 Gettingthemostoutofexistingnuclearplants Non-proliferationofnuclearweapons LookingaheadtoGenerationIVtechnologies Ownershipofnuclearpowergenerationassets TheaccidentatFukushimaDaiichiandlessonslearned 350 352 355 374 376 Boxes for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040 11.1 Help wanted 389 Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk China’sincreasinginvestmentinAfricanenergy Africa’senergysectordata Definingmodernenergyaccessforthisstudy Majorhydrocarbonbasinsinsub-SaharanAfrica 438 442 443 464 Boxes for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040 14.1 14.2 14.3 214 268 303 326 Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER CanSMRsleadtoanewviewofnucleareconomics? Shouldnuclearpowerbeconsideredimportedorindigenousenergy? 393 417 Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk Boxes for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 Whatcouldrevolutioniseelectricitysupply? SolarPV:decliningcostsandvaluewithincreasingdeployment Canenergyefficiencymaketheproductionofbottlesandcans competitiveinhigh-costregions? How do subsidies to fossil fuels compare with those to renewables andnuclearpower? Modellingenergydemandandsupplyinsub-SaharanAfrica Charcoalproductionandthesizeofthemarket Naturalgasflaringinsub-SaharanAfrica Fallingbackonback-upgenerators Whydoesoilproductionnotdirectlyreflectresourcepotential? Withgridorwithout?Thevarieddynamicsofexpandingelectricity access in Nigeria and Ethiopia Thenexusofgovernanceandenergysectorreforms: akeytopovertyreductionandeconomicgrowth? 456 508 540 582 489 520 530 Boxes for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 ottledgas:half-fullorhalf-empty? B WillNigeria’sPetroleumIndustryBillseethelightofday? Tacklingoiltheft KarooBasinshale–adomesticgassourceforSouthAfrica? Building up a customer base for natural gas 550 554 557 564 573 Boxes for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity 16.1 16.2 16.3 Powertariffs:trappedbetweenaffordabilityandcostrecovery? Botswana–amodelforresourcegovernance? TheWestAfricaGasPipeline:partialdeliveryofitspromise 587 592 594 List of spotlights Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Arewarningsignsappearingonthehorizonforoilproduction? The importance of efficiency in coal-fired power plants 78 180 World Energy Outlook 2014 © IEA/OECD, 2014 Table of Contents © IEA/OECD, 2014