T
A
B
L
E
www.worldenergyoutlook.org
O
F
C
O
N
T
E
N
T
S
© IEA/OECD, 2014
PART A
GLOBAL
ENERGY
TRENDS
PART B
OUTLOOK FOR
NUCLEAR POWER
PART C
AFRICA
ENERGY
OUTLOOK
ANNEXES
A FRAMEWORK FOR OUR ENERGY FUTURE
1
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040
2
OIL MARKET OUTLOOK
3
NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK
4
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
5
POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK
6
RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
7
ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK
8
FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIES
9
NUCLEAR POWER TODAY AND DECISIONS TO COME
10
PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR POWER TO 2040
11
THE IMPLICATIONS OF NUCLEAR POWER
12
ENERGY IN AFRICA TODAY
13
OUTLOOK FOR AFRICAN ENERGY TO 2040
14
AFRICAN ENERGY ISSUES IN FOCUS
15
BUILDING A PATH TO PROSPERITY
16
ANNEXES
© IEA/OECD, 2014
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
3
5
23
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
31
1
2
3
A framework for our energy future
33
Scope of the report
Methodological approach
Modelling framework
Defining the scenarios
Main non-policy assumptions
Economic growth
Demographic trends
Carbon-dioxide prices
Technology
Energy supply costs and prices
Oil prices
Natural gas prices
Coal prices
34
35
35
36
39
39
42
44
45
47
49
50
52
Global energy trends to 2040
53
Energy trends by scenario
Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario
Demand
Supply
Inter-regional trade
Energy investment
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Recent developments
Emissions and climate impact in the New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
54
56
56
74
80
84
86
86
87
89
Oil market outlook
95
Global overview
Demand
Regional trends
Sectoral trends
Trends by product
Production
Resources and reserves
Production prospects
Refining and trade
Trade in crude oil and oil products
96
98
98
101
108
110
110
114
131
133
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
4
Natural gas market outlook
135
Global overview
Demand
Regional trends
Sectoral trends
Production
Resources and reserves
Gas production trends
Outlook for gas supply security
Rising gas import needs
A growing cast of gas suppliers
Implications for the main importing regions
136
137
137
143
146
146
146
158
159
161
166
5
Coal market outlook
171
Overview
Demand
Regional trends
Sectoral trends
Supply
Reserves and resources
Production
Trade
Pricing of internationally traded coal
Costs and investment
Regional insights
China
United States
India
Europe
172
176
176
179
181
181
181
183
185
189
191
191
194
197
199
Power sector outlook
201
Context
Electricity demand
Electricity supply
Overview
Power generation capacity
Power generation
Investment
Power generation costs
Electricity-related carbon-dioxide emissions
Electricity prices
Industry
Residential
Regional focus
United States
202
204
208
208
208
215
217
221
225
226
227
229
230
230
6
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
European Union
Japan
China
India
Middle East
7
8
9
231
233
234
235
236
Renewable energy outlook
239
Recent trends and policies
Outlook by scenario
Renewables outlook by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Global and regional trends
Sectoral trends
Power generation
Transport
Industry and buildings
Avoided CO2 emissions
Renewables outlook by source in the New Policies Scenario
Bioenergy
Hydropower
Wind power
Solar photovoltaics
Other renewables
Economics of renewables
Investment
Subsidies
240
241
243
243
244
246
251
254
255
257
257
259
261
264
270
271
271
274
Energy efficiency outlook
279
Introduction
Current status of energy efficiency
Recent progress
Recent policy developments
Outlook for energy efficiency
Trends by fuel
Trends by sector
Energy efficiency and competitiveness
How energy efficiency affects international competitiveness
Scope for energy efficiency to cut costs in energy-intensive industries
Impact of improved energy efficiency on economic competitiveness
Broader benefits
Household spending on energy
Fossil-fuel import bills
CO2 emissions
280
280
280
282
285
287
291
300
301
302
308
310
310
311
312
Fossil-fuel subsidies
313
Overview
314
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
Identifying the problem
Defining fossil-fuel subsidies
Forms of subsidy and why they exist
Why reform is needed
Measuring their size
Methodology
Estimates of fossil-fuel subsidies in 2013
Impacts of fossil-fuel subsidies on clean energy technologies
Low-carbon power generation
Energy efficiency
Implementing reforms
Recent policy developments
Case studies of reform
Guidelines on best practice
Part B: OUTLOOK FOR NUCLEAR POWER
10
11
315
315
315
317
318
318
320
324
324
326
328
329
329
340
345
Nuclear power today and decisions to come
347
Prospects for nuclear power to 2040
383
Context
Historical and current developments
Reactor technology and designs
Policy framework
Countries with existing programmes
Potential newcomer countries
Economics and financing
Economics of existing capacity
Economics of new builds
Financing
Facing public concerns
Issues across the lifecycle of nuclear power
Risk, perception and public opinion
Introduction
New Policies Scenario
Approach and key assumptions
Nuclear power capacity and generation
Investment needs and associated costs
Regional trends
Low Nuclear Case
Developments that could slow the expansion of nuclear power
Assumptions
Nuclear power capacity and generation
High Nuclear Case
Assumptions
Nuclear power capacity and generation
348
348
353
356
358
361
362
365
366
373
375
377
381
384
384
384
386
391
394
400
400
401
402
403
403
404
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
12
450 Scenario
Outlook for nuclear fuel
405
406
The implications of nuclear power
411
Introduction
Energy security
Energy trade, self-sufficiency and diversity
National economic considerations
Environment
CO2 emissions
High-level radioactive waste disposal
Water
Policy priorities for nuclear power
Part C: AFRICA ENERGY OUTLOOK
13
14
Energy in Africa today
Context
Economy
Demography
Business environment and infrastructure
Governance
Access to modern energy
Access to electricity
Access to clean cooking facilities
Overview of energy demand
Power sector
End-use sectors
Overview of energy resources and supply
Oil and natural gas
Renewables
Other
Energy trade
Energy affordability
Outlook for African energy to 2040
Projecting future developments
Economic and population growth
Policy environment
Overview of energy demand trends
Outlook for the power sector
Electricity demand
Electricity supply
Electricity transmission and trade
Outlook for other energy-consuming sectors
Residential
412
413
414
418
419
420
423
427
427
431
433
434
434
438
439
440
441
444
448
450
453
459
461
462
469
474
475
478
483
484
484
487
490
493
493
495
500
500
502
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
15
16
Transport
Productive uses
Outlook for energy supply
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
International energy trade
Crude oil
Oil products
Natural gas
Coal
Energy and the environment
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Deforestation and forest degradation
503
505
507
507
512
516
518
524
524
525
526
529
530
531
532
African energy issues in focus
535
Building a path to prosperity
575
Five features of Africa’s energy outlook
Electricity access: what is the path to power?
Biomass: here to stay?
Is oil the way forward for Nigeria?
South Africa: will energy diversity deliver?
Mozambique and Tanzania: how to get best value from gas?
Towards a better-functioning sub-Saharan energy sector
Three keys to Africa’s energy future
Investment in the region’s energy supply
Making the most of Africa’s resources
Regional energy co-operation and integration
An African Century Case
Africa’s energy choices in a global context
ANNEXES
Annex A.
Annex B.
Annex C.
Annex D.
536
536
545
552
560
568
576
579
579
589
593
595
598
601
Tables for scenario projections
Policies and measures by scenario
ĞĮŶŝƟŽŶƐ
References
603
687
699
711
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
List of figures
2.20
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Figures for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future
1.1
Total primary energy demand and GDP in selected countries, 1971-2012
40
1.2
Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario
49
1.3
Natural gas price by region in the New Policies Scenario
51
1.4
CoalpricerelativetogaspricebyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
52
umulativeenergy-relatedCO2 emissions by region in the
C
New Policies Scenario
89
2.21
Reductioninenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin450Scenariorelative
to the New Policies Scenario
91
2.22
umulativeCO2emissionsreductionbysectorandregioninthe
C
450ScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario
91
2.23
verageannualcapacityadditionsoflow-carbontechnologies
A
byscenarioandcumulativeCO2 savings in the power sector
inthe450ScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario
92
Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook
Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040
World total primary energy demand by scenario
55
3.1
World oil demand and oil price by scenario
2.2
Fuel shares in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
57
3.2
Growth in world oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
100
2.3
Primary energy demand growth by region and fuel type in the
New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
3.3
57
I mpactoffuelswitchingandefficiencyonthechangeinglobaloil
demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040
102
Incremental oil demand in selected non-OECD regions in the
New Policies Scenario
59
World transport oil demand change by main products and
sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040
103
2.5
FuelsharesinglobalfinalenergyconsumptionintheNewPoliciesScenario
62
2.6
PrimaryenergydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
63
Discounted total annual costs of passenger light-duty vehicles
in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2020
105
2.7
Primary energy demand growth by selected region in the
NewPoliciesScenario
3.6
64
lobaldemandforpetrochemicalfeedstockbyoilproductinthe
G
NewPoliciesScenario
106
Energy demand and GDP per capita, and corresponding oil price
intheNewPoliciesScenario
3.7
World oil demand growth by product in the New Policies Scenario
108
65
3.8
SchematicofthePRMSclassification
113
2.9
WorldenergydemandbyselectedsectorintheNewPoliciesScenario
69
3.9
2.10
Change in energy demand by sector and region in the
New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
olumesofglobalconventionaloildiscoveredbydecadeversus
V
discoveries required in the New Policies Scenario
114
70
3.10
2.11
Weighted average spending on energy end-use by region in the
New Policies Scenario
hangeinoilproductionbyselectedregioninthe
C
New Policies Scenario
115
72
3.11
ChangeinworldoilproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario
118
Spending on energy end-use by selected region in the
New Policies Scenario
3.12
TightoilproductionbycountryintheNewPoliciesScenario
120
72
3.13
OilproductionbytypeinMexicointheNewPoliciesScenario
125
2.13
Lifetimesoffossil-fuelanduraniumresources
75
3.14
ConventionaloilproductioninIranintheNewPoliciesScenario
129
2.14
Changeinenergyproductionbyregioninthe
NewPoliciesScenario,2012-2040
76
3.15
OPECoilproductionbyregionandtypeintheNewPoliciesScenario
130
hangeinoilproductionrelativetothelevelin2013inthe
C
New Policies Scenario
3.16
79
AsianimportsversusMiddleEasternexportsofcrudeoilinthe
New Policies Scenario
133
2.16
Worldfossil-fuelproductionandtradeintheNewPoliciesScenario
82
Figures for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook
2.17
Value of net trade in fossil fuels in the New Policies Scenario
84
4.1
World natural gas demand by scenario
137
2.18
umulativeglobalenergysupplyinvestmentbyfuelandtype
C
in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
4.2
Natural gas demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario
138
85
4.3
2.19
Global fossil-fuel energy-related CO2 emissions and total
cumulativeCO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario
aturalgasdemandintheMiddleEastbysectorinthe
N
New Policies Scenario
141
88
4.4
World natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
143
2.1
2.4
2.8
2.12
2.15
3.4
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
3.5
97
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
4.5
Change in natural gas demand by sector in selected regions
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
144
4.6
WorldnaturalgasproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario
147
4.7
E stimatedmethaneemissionsassociatedwithoilandnaturalgas
production,2012
154
hangeinnaturalgasproductioninselectedcountriesinthe
C
NewPoliciesScenario
156
4.9
Europeannaturalgasimportsbysource
160
4.10
S hareoftop-fiveproducersofoilandgasintotalproductioninthe
NewPoliciesScenario
162
Inter-regional natural gas trade by pipeline and LNG in the
NewPoliciesScenario
162
4.12
Inter-regionalLNGexportsbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario
163
4.13
NaturalgasimportsbysourcetoOECDEuropeintheNewPoliciesScenario
167
4.14
asimportsbysourcetoselectedAsianmarketsinthe
G
NewPoliciesScenario
168
4.8
4.11
5.16
Figures for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook
5.1
ECDEuropecoalproduction,netimportsandimportdependency
O
in the New Policies Scenario
200
Figures for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook
6.1
ElectricitydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
204
6.2
orldelectricityandtotalfinalenergyintensityinthe
W
New Policies Scenario
205
6.3
nnualelectricityconsumptionpercapitaandshareofelectricity
A
intotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyselectedregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
207
6.4
WorldelectricityconsumptionbysectorintheNewPoliciesScenario
207
6.5
owergenerationcapacityflowsbysourceinthe
P
New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
210
6.6
etchangeinworldpowergenerationcapacitybyfueltype
N
and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040
211
WorldelectricitygenerationbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario
215
6.8
WorldelectricitygenerationbysourceintheNewPoliciesScenario
216
6.9
S hareofelectricitygenerationbysourceandselectedregion
in the New Policies Scenario
217
6.10
WorldinvestmentinthepowersectorbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
218
6.11
umulativeworldinvestmentinthepowersectorbygenerating
C
type, 2014-2040
220
6.12
umulativeglobalpowersectorinvestmentbytypeandselected
C
region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
221
T otalpowergenerationcostsbyselectedregioninthe
New Policies Scenario, 2020
222
6.14
T otalpowergenerationcostsbyselectedregioninthe
New Policies Scenario, 2040
223
6.15
E lectricity-relatedCO2 emissions and carbon intensity of electricity
generationintheNewPoliciesScenario
226
I ndustrialelectricityspendingincludingtaxesandsavingsdue
toenergyefficiencyimprovementsbyselectedregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
228
esidentialelectricityspendingincludingtaxesandsavingsdue
R
toenergyefficiencyimprovementsbyselectedregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
229
6.18
UnitedStateselectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity
in the New Policies Scenario
230
6.7
S hareofworldenergydemandandelectricitygeneration
by fuel and scenario
173
5.2
Annualchangeincoaldemandbykeyregion
178
5.3
I ncrementalcoaldemandbykeysector,regionanddecadeinthe
New Policies Scenario
179
5.4
ShareofworldcoalproductionbykeycountryintheNewPoliciesScenario
182
5.5
S hareofworldcoaltradebytypeandkeycountryinthe
New Policies Scenario
185
S teamcoalpricesincoastalChina,EuropeandtheUnitedStates
in the New Policies Scenario
187
F OBcashcostsandmarketvolumeforglobalseabornesteamcoal
trade in the New Policies Scenario
188
5.8
AverageFOBcashcostsforkeysteamcoalexporters
189
5.9
orldcokingandsteamcoalproductionbytypeofmineinthe
W
New Policies Scenario
190
S hareofChinainglobalcoalmarketsandChina’scoalimport
dependence in the New Policies Scenario
191
5.11
Majorcoalminesandcoal-firedpowerplantsinChina,2013
193
5.12
Cash costs of steam coal to southern coastal China, 2020
194
5.13
UnitedStatespowergenerationfuelmixintheNewPoliciesScenario
195
6.19
5.14
Coal deliveries to the power sector under contract in the
UnitedStatesbysourceasof2013
E uropeanUnionelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity
in the New Policies Scenario
232
196
6.20
GlobalcoaltradebymajorimportingregionsintheNewPoliciesScenario
199
J apanelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the
New Policies Scenario
234
5.6
5.7
5.10
5.15
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
6.13
6.16
6.17
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
6.21
6.22
6.23
hinaelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the
C
New Policies Scenario
IndiaelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity in the
NewPoliciesScenario
MiddleEastelectricitygenerationbysourceandCO2 intensity
in the New Policies Scenario
234
236
237
Figures for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.10
7.11
7.12
7.13
7.14
7.15
7.16
7.17
7.18
7.19
7.20
S hareofglobalrenewablesconsumptionbysectorinthe
New Policies Scenario
Shareofglobalrenewablesconsumptionbysectorandregion
in the New Policies Scenario
World renewable energy balances in the New Policies Scenario, 2040
Incrementalglobalelectricitygenerationfromrenewablesbytype
in the New Policies Scenario
Incrementalelectricitygenerationfromrenewablesbyregioninthe
New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
Biofuelsconsumptioninroadtransportbyregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
Heat demand provided by renewable sources in the buildings
and industry sectors by region in the New Policies Scenario
Global CO2 emissions avoided from greater use of renewables
intheNewPoliciesScenario
Global bioenergy use by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Productionofbiofuelsbytypeandtotalbiofuelsdemandbyregion
in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 and 2040
HydropowercapacityadditionsbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Hydropowergenerationandshareoftotalgenerationinthe
NewPoliciesScenario
Installed wind power capacity by type and region in the
NewPoliciesScenario,2040
Windpowercapacityadditionsandreplacements,andshareoftotal
generationbyselectedregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Solar PV capacity by type and region in the
NewPoliciesScenario,2040
Illustrativeelectricityloadcurveforhigh-demandsummerday
SolarPVcapacityadditionsandshareofmaximumPVoutputinpeak
demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario
Global investment in renewables-based power capacity by source
in the New Policies Scenario
Changeinglobalrenewablespowersubsidies,2012to2013
Renewables power subsidies by source in the top-15 countries, 2013
243
244
245
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
247
248
8.7
8.8
252
8.9
255
8.10
256
257
8.11
8.12
259
260
8.13
260
8.14
263
264
266
268
270
272
276
277
Global renewables subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario
Global renewables subsidies by region in the New Policies Scenario
278
278
Figures for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook
8.6
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
7.21
7.22
8.15
8.16
8.17
8.18
Annual change in primary energy intensity
Transmissionanddistributionlossrates
Factorscontributingtoglobalsavingsinprimaryenergydemand
intheNewPoliciesScenariorelativetoCurrentPoliciesScenario
Globalprimaryenergysavingsfromenergyefficiencybyfuel
andsectorintheNewPoliciesScenariorelativetothe
CurrentPoliciesScenario,2040
Globalfossil-fueldemandandcumulativeenergyefficiencysavings
by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Changeinglobalfinalenergyconsumptionbyselectedfuel,
sectorandcontributingfactorintheNewPoliciesScenario
Electricitydemandforlightinginbuildingsbycontributingfactor
Marketshareinglobalpassengerlight-dutyvehiclesalesinthe
New Policies Scenario
Reductioninenergyintensityincementproductionbycontributing
factor in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
Compositionofvalueaddedinchemicalsexportsbycountry
of origin, 2009
Estimatedunitproductioncostofaplasticbottleandanaluminium
beverage can in selected regions, 2013
Averageestimatedelectricitypricesforelectricarcfurnaces
in selected countries, 2013
Change in energy spending and value added in the chemicals
industry, 2000-2011
Diffusionofcumulativeenergyefficiencyspendingoncars
worldwide through the manufacturing and services sectors
in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
Change in energy intensity and value added by sector in the
EfficientWorldScenariorelativetotheNewPoliciesScenario,2030
Shareofenergyexpendituresinhouseholdincomeinselected
regions in the New Policies Scenario
Oil and natural gas import bills and avoided import bills due
toenergyefficiencybyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the
NewPoliciesScenariorelativetotheCurrentPoliciesScenario
281
282
285
286
287
288
293
295
299
301
303
305
307
308
309
310
311
312
Figures for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies
9.1
9.2
Economic value of global fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel
ExampleofthecalculationofsubsidiesforoilproductsinIndonesia,2013
314
320
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.10
E conomicvalueoffossil-fuelconsumptionsubsidiesbyfuelfor
the top 25 countries, 2013
Value of fossil-fuel subsidies in selected countries and rate
ofsubsidisationoffossilfuels,2013
ElectricitygeneratingcostsintheMiddleEast,2020
Paybackperiodstoinvestinmoreefficientenergy-consuming
equipmentinselectedMiddleEastcountries
Fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel in Egypt
Gasoline and diesel prices in Indonesia compared to spot prices in Singapore
Fossil-fuel subsidies by fuel in Nigeria, 2013
Criticalstepsofaprocesstoreformfossil-energysubsidies
11.7
hangeinshareofnuclearpowergenerationandcapacityby
C
selected region in the New Policies Scenario
391
11.8
uclearpowercapacityandshareofgenerationbyselectedregion
N
in the New Policies Scenario
395
11.9
E UnuclearpowercapacityintheNewPoliciesScenarioand
retirementprofilesunderdifferentlifetimeextensionassumptions
397
11.10
Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case
402
11.11
Nuclear power capacity by region, by scenario and case
405
321
323
325
328
332
335
338
340
11.12 Globalnuclearpowercapacitybyscenarioandcase
406
11.13 Nuclearfuelcycleandcompetitionfromsecondarysourcesoptions
407
11.14 UraniumdemandintheNewPoliciesScenariobyregion
409
Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER
11.15 U
raniumdemandintheNewPoliciesScenariocomparedwith
existingandplannedproduction
410
Figures for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come
Figures for Chapter 12: The implications of nuclear power
10.1
10.2
10.3
Reactorconstructionstartsandtimelineofevents
Ageprofileofnuclearcapacitybyselectedregion
Overview of basic nuclear reactor technologies and their share of
constructionstarts
10.4
Status of nuclear power programmes, end-2013
10.5 Costsinthelifecycleofanuclearpowerplant
10.6 Historicalovernightcostofconstructionfornuclearpowerplants
inFranceandtheUnitedStates
10.7 Historicalconstructiontimesandcapacityfactorsfornuclearpower
plantsbyselectedregion
10.8 Sensitivityofnucleargeneratingcoststochangesinparameters
10.9 Generatingcostsforselectednewpowerplantsunderdifferentfuel
price and CO2priceassumptions
10.10 Ownershipofnuclearpowergenerationassets,2012
349
352
353
357
364
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
uclearpowergeneratingcostsfornewplantsinselectedregions
N
intheNewPoliciesScenario,2030
World installed nuclear power capacity by region in the
New Policies Scenario
Installednuclearpowercapacitybykeyregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
Nuclearpowercapacityadditionsandretirementsbykeyregion
in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
Globalnuclearpowercapacityadditionsandretirementsinthe
New Policies Scenario
NuclearpowergenerationbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
414
12.2
World natural gas and steam coal trade in the New Policies Scenario
and Low Nuclear Case
415
etenergyself-sufficiencyinselectedregionsintheNewPoliciesScenario
N
andtheLowNuclearCase
416
owergenerationmixbyselectedregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
P
and Low Nuclear Case
418
12.5
Natural gas and coal import bills by selected region in the
New Policies Scenario and Low Nuclear Case
419
12.6
lobalenergy-relatedCO2 emissions and CO2 emissions avoided by
G
nuclear in the New Policies Scenario
421
CumulativeCO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power by selected
region in the New Policies Scenario, 1971-2040
421
Average cost of CO2 emissions avoided by nuclear power by selected
region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
422
Change in global CO2 emission indicators in the Low Nuclear Case
relativetotheNewPoliciesScenario
423
12.3
12.4
368
370
371
374
12.7
12.8
386
387
12.9
12.10 W
orldcumulativespentnuclearfueldischargedsince1971
intheNewPoliciesScenario
426
387
388
389
390
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
hangeinglobalcapacityandgenerationintheLowNuclearCase
C
compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2040
367
Figures for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040
11.1
12.1
Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk
Figures for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today
MapofAfricaandmainsub-regionsforthisstudy
435
13.2 GDPofsub-SaharanAfricaandGermany(PPPterms),2013
13.1
436
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
13.3
Figures for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040
umberofcountriesbylevelofnationalincomeandnumber
N
of people in sub-Saharan Africa living on less than $1.25 per day
437
13.4
Growth in sub-Saharan trade by region
437
13.5
urationofelectricaloutagesandimpactonbusinesssales
D
in selected countries
440
14.2
14.3
umberandshareofpeoplewithoutaccesstoelectricity
N
by country, 2012
445
14.4
447
14.5
448
14.6
13.6
13.7
verageelectricityconsumptionperhouseholdinsub-SaharanAfrica,
A
2012,andindicativeconsumptionlevelsbyappliance
13.8
L argestpopulationsrelyingonthetraditionaluseofsolidbiomass
forcookinginsub-SaharanAfricabysub-region,2012
13.9
13.10
13.11
Fuelwoodconsumptionpercapitaperdayinselectedcountries
Mainfuelusedbyhouseholdsforcooking
Populationandpercapitaenergydemandbycountryin
sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
Sub-SaharanAfricaprimaryenergymixbysub-region,2012
Oil product demand growth by sub-region, 2000-2012
ElectricityconsumptioninAfricabyend-usesectorand
sub-region, 2012
Electricitydemandmetbyback-upgeneratorsbysub-region,2012
Transmissionanddistributionlossesandlossrates,2012
Installed grid-based capacity by type and sub-region
Carownershipinselectedcountries,2012
Sub-SaharanAfricanaturalgas,coalandoilresources,end-2013
Globaldiscoveriesofoilandgas
Majorenergyinfrastructureandmainhydrocarbonbasins
Sub-SaharanAfricaoilproductionbycountryandtotaldemand
Sub-SaharanAfricanaturalgasproductionbycountry
andtotaldemand
ExistinghydropowercapacityandpotentialinAfrica
Indicativelevelisedcostsofelectricityforon-gridandoff-gridtechnologies
in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
CrudeoilexportsfromAfrica’swestcoastbydestination
Africa’smajorinternationalenergytradeflowsbysub-region,2012
OilproductpricedifferentialsbetweenNigeria,Angola
and neighbouring countries, 2013
Kerosene price and subsidy in selected countries, 2013
Grid electricity prices by end-use sector in selected countries, 2013
Household energy spending as share of income
13.12
13.13
13.14
13.15
13.16
13.17
13.18
13.19
13.20
13.21
13.22
13.23
13.24
13.25
13.26
13.27
13.28
13.29
13.30
13.31
449
450
451
452
453
454
456
457
458
460
462
463
465
468
469
471
472
475
477
479
479
480
481
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
14.1
14.7
14.8
14.9
14.10
14.11
14.12
14.13
14.14
14.15
14.16
14.17
14.18
14.19
14.20
14.21
14.22
14.23
Growth in GDP and GDP per capita by region in the
New Policies Scenario
Populationgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricabysub-region
Total primary energy demand and demand per capita in
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
Primary energy demand in sub-Saharan Africa by fuel in the
New Policies Scenario
Electricity demand in sub-Saharan Africa and the share from those
that gain access in the New Policies Scenario
Electricitygenerationbyfuelinsub-SaharanAfricainthe
NewPoliciesScenario,2012and2040
ElectricitygenerationbyfuelintheNewPoliciesScenario
Changeinresidentialenergydemandbyfuelinsub-SaharanAfrica
in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
Electricitydemandperelectrifiedhouseholdinsub-SaharanAfrica
in the New Policies Scenario
Vehiclestockinsub-SaharanAfricabytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario
Oil demand in transport in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
Finalenergyconsumptioninproductiveusesinsub-SaharanAfrica
in the New Policies Scenario
Change in GDP by sector and related energy use in the
NewPoliciesScenario
Oilproductioninsub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Netpresentvalueofoildevelopmentsatdifferentrisklevelsusing
post-2030costassumptions
Oilproductioninsub-SaharancountriesotherthanNigeria
and Angola in the New Policies Scenario
Naturalgasproductioninsub-Saharancountriesin2012andchange
to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario
Destinationofgasproductioninsub-SaharanAfricainthe
NewPoliciesScenario
Increase in renewables-based capacity by sub-region and type in
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
Sub-Saharanhydropowercapacityandremainingpotentialinthe
New Policies Scenario
S ub-SaharanAfricacrudeoilexportsandimportsinthe
New Policies Scenario
Import dependence for selected oil products in sub-Saharan Africa
(excludingSouthAfrica)intheNewPoliciesScenario
LNGexportsfromsub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
485
486
490
491
494
496
498
502
503
504
504
505
506
507
508
509
514
516
518
522
525
526
527
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
14.24 I ndicativedeliveredcostsofLNGfromselectedsourcestoEurope
andmainAsianimportmarkets,2025
14.25 Energy-related CO2 emissions by selected country and region
in the New Policies Scenario
16.3
528
531
Figures for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
15.8
15.9
15.10
15.11
15.12
15.13
15.14
15.15
15.16
15.17
15.18
15.19
opulationwithoutaccesstoelectricitybysub-regionin
P
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity access by region in sub-Saharan Africa in the
New Policies Scenario
Electricitydemandfromthepopulationgainingaccesstoelectricity
in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
OptimalsplitbygridtypeinNigeriaandEthiopia,basedon
anticipatedexpansionofmaintransmissionlines
Indicativelevelisedcostsofelectricityforon-grid,mini-grid
andoff-gridtechnologiesinsub-SaharanAfrica,2012
Technologymixformini-gridandoff-gridpowergenerationin
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario, 2040
Householdenergyconsumptionforcookingbyfuelin
sub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Populationwithandwithoutcleancookingaccessin
sub-SaharanAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Primaryfuel/technologyusedbyhouseholdsforcookingin
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
NigeriaandAngolaconventionaloilproductioninthe
New Policies Scenario
ComparisonofplannedprojectsinNigeriaandAngola
AveragedailyoilproductionanddistributioninNigeria,2013
GasproductioninNigeriaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Electricity demand growth by sector in South Africa in the
NewPoliciesScenario
South Africa mine-by-mine coal supply curve and the average coal
exportprice,2013
Levelisedcostsofpowergenerationbyfuelandtechnology
inSouthAfrica
MaingasfieldsandinfrastructureinMozambiqueandTanzania
GasconsumptionandexportinMozambiqueandTanzania
in the New Policies Scenario
Indicativecapitalintensityandgasutilisationfordifferent
large-scale uses of gas
537
538
539
541
542
543
546
List of tables
546
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
552
553
554
558
560
562
olicyactionsandoutcomesintheAfricanCenturyCase
P
Investmentinenergysupplyinsub-SaharanAfrica
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
583
583
584
591
595
598
599
RealGDPgrowthassumptionsbyregion
Populationassumptionsbyregion
CO2priceassumptionsinselectedregionsbyscenario
Recentdevelopmentsandkeyconditionsforfasterdeployment
ofcleanenergytechnologies
Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario
41
43
45
46
48
Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040
567
569
572
2.5
574
2.6
Worldprimaryenergydemandbyfuelandscenario
World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
WorldprimaryenergydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Number of people without access to modern energy services
by region, 2012
Energynetimport/exportsharesbyfuelandregioninthe
New Policies Scenario
Energy- and climate-related indicators by Scenario
56
58
64
74
81
93
Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook
578
579
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
580
Tables for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
565
Figures for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity
16.1
16.2
S haresofinvestmentbysectorinsub-SaharanAfricainthe
New Policies Scenario
16.4 Relationshipbetweenindicatorsforgovernanceandforgrosscapital
formationinsub-SaharanAfrica
16.5 Relationshipbetweenindicatorsforgovernanceandforqualityof
electricity supply in sub-Saharan Africa
16.6 Ownershipstructureofoilandgasoutput,andpowergeneration
capacity in sub-Saharan Africa
16.7 Estimatedfiscalrevenuefromhydrocarbonextractionin
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
16.8 GDPgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricaintheAfricanCenturyCase
and the New Policies Scenario
16.9 Increaseinregionalelectricitygenerationandtradein
sub-Saharan Africa in the African Century Case versus the
New Policies Scenario, 2040
16.10 Country-by-countrygrowthinelectricityconsumptionpercapita
in sub-Saharan Africa by scenario
3.1
3.2
Oilandliquidsdemandbyregionandscenario
Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
96
98
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
Oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
Remaining recoverable oil resources and proven reserves, end-2013
Oilproductionandliquidssupplybysourceandscenario
WorldoilproductionbytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario
Non-OPECoilproductionintheNewPoliciesScenario
OPECoilproductionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Global total demand for liquids, products and crude throughput
in the New Policies Scenario
WorldrefiningcapacityandrefineryrunsintheNewPoliciesScenario
101
111
115
117
124
127
132
132
4.4
4.5
4.6
Naturalgasproductionbymajorregionandscenario
Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by
typeandregion,end-2013
GlobalproductionofunconventionalgasintheNewPoliciesScenario
NaturalgasproductionbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
NaturalgasnettradebyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
137
139
146
148
149
161
Tables for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
Coaldemand,productionandtradebyscenario
Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
CoalproductionbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Inter-regional coal trade in the New Policies Scenario
Coal-related indicators for China in the New Policies Scenario
174
177
183
184
192
Tables for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
7.3
7.4
206
208
212
213
219
Worldrenewablesconsumptionbyscenario
Renewables-basedelectricitygenerationbyregioninthe
NewPoliciesScenario
Cumulativerenewablecapacityretirementsbyregionand
source in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulativerenewablecapacityadditionsbyregionand
source in the New Policies Scenario
242
253
273
275
Tables for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook
8.1
8.3
8.4
Selectedenergyefficiencypoliciesannouncedorintroduced
in 2013 and 2014
Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in buildings from
energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario
Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in transport from
energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario
Savings in energy demand and CO2 emissions in industry from
energyefficiencyintheNewPoliciesScenario
284
292
294
297
Tables for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies
9.1
9.2
9.3
Recent developments in fossil-fuel subsidy reform around the world
IncreasesforselectedproductsinEgypt,July2014
Summaryofexperiencewithfossil-fuelsubsidyreform
in Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria
330
333
334
Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
eynuclearpowerstatisticsbyregion,end-2013
K
SelectedGenerationIIIreactordesigns
Key nuclear power-related policies and targets in selected
countries with operable reactors
Countriesconsideringintroductionofnuclearpower
Relativeattributesofpowergenerationtechnologies
AssumptionsusedtocalculategeneratingcostsinFigure10.9
Keypublicconsiderationsfornuclearpower
351
354
359
362
363
372
379
Tables for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040
246
11.1
11.2
249
11.3
250
11.4
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
7.7
Biofuelsconsumptioninroadtransportbytypeoffueland
region in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulativerenewableinvestmentsbyregionandtypeinthe
New Policies Scenario
Government support schemes for renewables-based electricity
generationandquantificationmethod
Tables for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come
ElectricitydemandbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario
Worldelectricitygenerationbysourceandscenario
Cumulativepowerplantcapacityretirementsbyregionand
source in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulativepowerplantcapacityadditionsbyregionand
source in the New Policies Scenario
Cumulativeinvestmentinthepowersectorbyregionand
type in the New Policies Scenario
Tables for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook
7.1
7.2
7.6
8.2
Tables for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook
4.1
4.2
4.3
7.5
eyassumptionsfornuclearpowerintheNewPoliciesScenario
K
Cumulativeglobalinvestmentandassociatedcosts
in nuclear power in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
Nuclearpowercapacity,additionsandretirementsinthe
New Policies Scenario and the High and Low Nuclear Cases
World uranium resources
385
392
404
408
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
Tables for Chapter 12: The implications of nuclear power
12.1
12.2
S electedprojectionsintheNewPoliciesScenarioandLowNuclearCase
Back-endfuelcyclestrategyandprogresstowardsrepositories
forhigh-levelradioactivewastedisposalinselectedcountries
Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040
412
425
Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk
fricaoilresourcesandreserves
A
Africanaturalgasresourcesandreserves
466
467
Tables for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
DPgrowthratesinAfricabysub-regionintheNewPoliciesScenario
G
Selected energy policies and targets in sub-Saharan Africa
Primary energy demand in Africa in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity demand in Africa in the New Policies Scenario
TotalfinalenergyconsumptioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
OilproductioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Oil product demand in sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
NaturalgasproductioninAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
Forestbiomassstockandfuelwoodconsumptionin
sub-Saharan Africa in the New Policies Scenario
486
488
492
494
501
510
511
513
519
Tables for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus
15.1
15.2
15.3
T echnologycharacteristicsofdifferentcookingoptions
ElectricitybalanceforSouthAfricaintheNewPoliciesScenario
MainnewupstreamgasprojectsinMozambiqueandTanzania
548
563
570
Tables for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity
16.1
I nvestmentinenergysupplyinsub-SaharanAfricainthe
New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040
581
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
ehicleoccupancy:emptyseatsandextrabarrels
V
Marinebunkers:aseachange?
Whatistherightburdenofproofforunconventionaloilandgas?
Mexico–startofanewoilandgasera?
WhatwouldittakeforIrantobounceback?
104
109
112
125
129
Boxes for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
gasthirstyMiddleEast
A
DoesdepletionbringtheendoftheUSshaleboomintoview?
Iswateraconstraintonshalegasproduction?
Ittollsforthee:implicationsoftheUSLNGbusinessmodel
WhataretheimplicationsoftheRussia-Chinagasagreement?
140
150
152
166
169
Boxes for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook
5.1
5.2
First steps in using CCS technology with coal
Coal demand in the roaring 2000s
175
178
Boxes for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook
6.1
6.2
Keeping the lights on
Whatmakesuptheelectricityprice
209
227
7.1
7.2
Hydropowerinsub-SaharanAfrica
Sources of investment in non-hydro renewables for electricity
261
274
Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy efficiency outlook
8.1
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Notable developments in energy policy in selected regions
A change in the way the 450 Scenario is built in WEO-2014
Revisedpurchasingpowerparitydatashakesupglobal
economicrankings
ObstaclestoindustrialenergyefficiencyinAfrica
298
Boxes for Chapter 9: Fossil-fuel subsidies
Boxes for Chapter 1: A framework for our energy future
37
39
42
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
54
61
70
73
90
Boxes for Chapter 7: Renewable energy outlook
List of boxes
1.1
1.2
1.3
lobalenergyusemaintainsitssteadyupwardtrajectory
G
Technology,divergingpricesandfuelswitching
Fossil-fueltransformationgetsmorecomplex
Current status of energy access
Reducing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas
Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook
Tables for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today
13.1
13.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
Towardsagreementondefining“subsidy”
Howwecalculatethereference,or“right”,priceofafossilfuel
HowdoIEAsubsidyestimatescomparewiththoseofotherorganisations?
Indonesia’sinformationcampaignstowinsupportforsubsidyreform
316
319
322
336
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014
Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER
Boxes for Chapter 10: Nuclear power today and decisions to come
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
Gettingthemostoutofexistingnuclearplants
Non-proliferationofnuclearweapons
LookingaheadtoGenerationIVtechnologies
Ownershipofnuclearpowergenerationassets
TheaccidentatFukushimaDaiichiandlessonslearned
350
352
355
374
376
Boxes for Chapter 11: Prospects for nuclear power to 2040
11.1
Help wanted
389
Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk
China’sincreasinginvestmentinAfricanenergy
Africa’senergysectordata
Definingmodernenergyaccessforthisstudy
Majorhydrocarbonbasinsinsub-SaharanAfrica
438
442
443
464
Boxes for Chapter 14: Outlook for African energy to 2040
14.1
14.2
14.3
214
268
303
326
Part B: OuTLOOk fOR NucLEAR POwER
CanSMRsleadtoanewviewofnucleareconomics?
Shouldnuclearpowerbeconsideredimportedorindigenousenergy?
393
417
Part c: AfRicA ENERGY OuTLOOk
Boxes for Chapter 13: Energy in Africa today
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
Whatcouldrevolutioniseelectricitysupply?
SolarPV:decliningcostsandvaluewithincreasingdeployment
Canenergyefficiencymaketheproductionofbottlesandcans
competitiveinhigh-costregions?
How do subsidies to fossil fuels compare with those to renewables
andnuclearpower?
Modellingenergydemandandsupplyinsub-SaharanAfrica
Charcoalproductionandthesizeofthemarket
Naturalgasflaringinsub-SaharanAfrica
Fallingbackonback-upgenerators
Whydoesoilproductionnotdirectlyreflectresourcepotential?
Withgridorwithout?Thevarieddynamicsofexpandingelectricity
access in Nigeria and Ethiopia
Thenexusofgovernanceandenergysectorreforms:
akeytopovertyreductionandeconomicgrowth?
456
508
540
582
489
520
530
Boxes for Chapter 15: African energy issues in focus
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
ottledgas:half-fullorhalf-empty?
B
WillNigeria’sPetroleumIndustryBillseethelightofday?
Tacklingoiltheft
KarooBasinshale–adomesticgassourceforSouthAfrica?
Building up a customer base for natural gas
550
554
557
564
573
Boxes for Chapter 16: Building a path to prosperity
16.1
16.2
16.3
Powertariffs:trappedbetweenaffordabilityandcostrecovery?
Botswana–amodelforresourcegovernance?
TheWestAfricaGasPipeline:partialdeliveryofitspromise
587
592
594
List of spotlights
Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Arewarningsignsappearingonthehorizonforoilproduction?
The importance of efficiency in coal-fired power plants
78
180
World Energy Outlook 2014
© IEA/OECD, 2014
Table of Contents
© IEA/OECD, 2014