Mikael Dahlgren, Forskningsdirektör, 2014-11-19 Framtidens energisystem - 2030 (eller tidigare?) Perspektiv från Corporate Research Today’s energy challenge Cut link between growth, energy use and emissions Meeting these challenges requires the world to: Reduce the correlation between economic growth and energy use Energy efficiency Reduce the correlation between energy use and emissions Renewable sources of energy Energy consumption and Economic growth Has gone hand in hand but is decoupling… © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 3 Existing European nuclear power Becoming too expensive? © ABB Group November 19, 2014 http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status.html | Slide 4 PV comes down fast in price Much smaller ‘economy of scale’ than traditional thermal power © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 5 “As a whole, the United States is forecasted to install nearly 6 gigawatts of solar in 2014”. GTM Research The world is still very dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 6 Annual increase of Electric demand and Renewable production Solar and wind now produce the average global annual increase 1400,0 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 TWh Electrical consumption change Wind+Solar 400,0 Linear (Electrical consumption change) 200,0 0,0 -200,0 -400,0 © ABB Group November 19, 2014 Year | Slide 7 Source: BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014 Utilities of the Future A Global Trend: Nearer to the Customer “Becoming customer centric offers higher-margin performance and competitive advantage” © ABB Group Month DD, Year | Slide 8 More empowered Customer Willing to pay for app-like ”service” Higher markets volatility Higher info exposure of Customers Shorter Technologies life-cycles Utilities of the Future 100% Renewables Centralized 100% Renewables Microgrids Strategic and Technical Limits Renewable political objectives November 19, © ABB 2014 | Slide 9 Four cornerstones for the future Energy Efficiency [Fresh] Energy Water The digital transition Natural resources Resource Efficiency © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 10 Land Urbanization Vart är kraftsystemet på väg? Brist på investeringar Effektflöden ändrar riktning © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 11 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 “The 10 breakthrough energy technologies” Ministers etc representing: • Republic of Korea • United States • Australia • Brazil • Canada • China • Denmark • EU • Finland • France • Germany • India • Indonesia • Italy • Japan • Mexico • Norway • Russia • South Africa • Sweden • United Arab Emirates • United Kingdom More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 12 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system Saudi Arabia Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector Microgrid Ultra-efficient solar power Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport Advanced Energy Storage Systems • HVDC The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 “The 10 breakthrough energy technologies” HVDC © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 13 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system Utilization of CO2 Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector Microgrid Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport Ultra-efficient solar power More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5 Where are the potential for Offshore wind? Wind, shallow water, and close to population… 1/3 can produce 1000 TWh annually EU 28 Need © ABB Group Month DD, Year | Slide 14 DC breaker for future HVDC systems DC interruption DC GRID © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 15 DC Breaker There are several possible approaches for achieving DC interruption. Two conceptually different approaches are using semi-conductors or creating a current zero crossing, which does not naturally occur in DC. A zero crossing may for instance be achieved by injection of an oscillating current, which added to the DC fault current causes a current zero and interruption. Two different approaches are presented in the next slides, the hybrid and the purley mechanical. These are currently under investigation/development. HVDC breaker challenge Fast interruption and isolation of faults Breaker operation time © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 16 Kraft elektronik – Nyckel teknologi HVDC Classic 800 1000 600 800 Förluster % 6,000 400 3 Spänning kV Transmission kapacitet (MW) Mer kraft och lägre förluster 4,000 2,000 HVDC Light 1 200 1970 1990 2010 Kapacitet upp 6 gånger sedan 2000; Voltage upp från +/- 100kV till +/- 1100kV sen 1970 Xiangjiaba – Shanghai: ± 800 kV UHVDC. Världens mest kraftfulla länk I drift. © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 17 2000 2010 Kapacitet upp 20 gånger; förluster ner 3% till <1% per omriktar station sen 2000 BorWin: 400 MW, 200km sub sea & undergr. Världens mest avlägsna offshore vindkraftpark. ABB lanserar 525 kV DC-kabel Driftsspänning från 320 kV till 525 kV Effekt från ~1,5 till ~2,6 GW (cu) Distans > 1500 km * Förluster < 5% * * - beroende på design OKG totalt 2,569 GW © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 18 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 “The 10 breakthrough energy technologies” HVDC More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector Internet of Things energy management system | Slide 19 It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 © ABB Group November 19, 2014 It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Microgrid Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Advanced biofuels technology for transport Ultra-efficient solar power It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5 Nät anslutet energi lager (2014) Compressed Air Energy Storage, 440 MW Pumped Hydro Sodium-Sulfur Battery, 320 MW 130’000 MW Over 99% of total storage capacity Lithium Ion Battery, 290 MW Lead Acid Battery, 80 MW Flywheels, 40 MW Redox Flow Battery, 13 MW ABB Corporate Research | Slide 20 Source: Fraunhofer Institute, EPRI, DOE Global Energy Storage Database, Pr. Nat. Sci. 19 (Chen et.al), ABB, BNEF, 2014 Energi lager applikationer Utility T&D applications ≈ Transportation ≈ ≈ ≈ = Buses: 300 kWp, 2h = Marine applications Ferries (full electric and hybrid) 1-10 MW, 1-2h ESS EV/PHEV: 50-100 kWp, 2h ESS ESS Way-side: 1-10 MW, 30 sec ESS ESS 15 kV, 16⅓ Hz ABB Corporate Research | Slide 21 On board: 1-10 MW, 5 min ESS O&G platforms: 1-10 MW, 30 sec ENVILINE Bättre verkningsgrad och tillförlitlighet Kontrollpanel Omriktare Kylning och värmehantering Transformator Ställverk (AC) Ställverk (DC) Automatiskt jordninssystem © ABB Group July 16, 2013 | Slide 1 3BHS537011 E02 RevA Energilager Energiåtervinning The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 “The 10 breakthrough energy technologies” HVDC | Slide 23 It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Utilization of CO2 © ABB Group November 19, 2014 Microgrid Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Ultra-efficient solar power Advanced biofuels technology for transport More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5 Internet of Energy Hur ”Internet of Things” och energisystemet växer ihop © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 24 En hel del av den nya teknologin som kopplas in är…. Småskalig Mobil Intermittent och stokastisk Oberoende av existerande el-marknad © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 25 Hur hantera intermittent produktion som sol och vind? Spilla produktion © ABB Group Month DD, Year | Slide 26 Kemiska, termiska och gravitationsbaserade lager Transportera mellan överoch under-skottsområden Möjligt alternativ vid enstaka tillfällen Lagra lokalt Ett vädersystem är typiskt 200-2000 km Styra behovet, DSM Våra förväntningar och beteenden viktiga Mätningar, styrning och kommunikation viktiga Bättre väderprognoser Sensorer Bättre behovsprognoser “Big data” Sensorer Funktioner integreras och data kommuniceras Integrering av funktioner © ABB Group November 19, 2014 Liknande integrering och kommunikationslösningar sker nu också för sensorer | Slide 27 Integrering av plattformar Antalet kopplingar i nätet ökar stadigt © ABB Group November 19, 2014 Tyskland har ökat från ~10000 inmatningspunkter av el, till mer än 1.2 miljoner Solcells-boomen ställer krav på kommunikation “Transactive” trading | Slide 28 En del av internet http://www.opte.org/ © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 29 Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss Internet of Things Big Data Mobility The hype Analytics 4 June 2014 | Slide 30 Cloud Computing Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss Vad kunden verkligen behöver Internet of Effektiv produktion Hög utnyttjandegrad Mobility Lägre kostnader och förenklade processer Things Säkerhet Bättre beslutsunderlag Big Data The hype Cloud Computing Analytics 4 June 2014 | Slide 31 Låg kostnad sensorer & låg energi kommunikation Sensor(er) och kommunikation för under 100 kronor…. Technologi utvecklad av/för bil och mobila industrin EM(Swatch), Bosch, TI….. Etablerade företag Exampel: MEMS Sensor(er) + elektronik inkl. Kommunikation and battery för 5 år för 70 kronor 2.5 * 2.5 mm Cirka. 3% noggranhet © ABB November 19, 2014 | Slide 32 Sensorer, beräkningar och modeller ger fördelar TDWORLD, December 2013 5%-20% ökning av märkeffekt rapporterat Vi kan bli pro-aktiva! © ABB Group November 19, 2014 | Slide 33 E.ON SGCC möjliggör proaktivitet Förutser störningar och föreslår lösningar Erfarenhetsåterföring Övervaka och agera Operatören övervakar realtidsdata © ABB November 19, 2014 | Slide 34 Planera (proaktivt) Operatören får prognoser för framtiden Remote operations – Framtida kontrollrum Centraler för flera anläggningar © ABB Group 19 november 2014 | Slide 35 Nya funktioner och uppgifter för operatörscentraler och operatörer ute i fält Distanssamarbete och möjlighet till fjärrstyrd manipulation Drar nytta av nya interaktionsteknologier för att levandegöra arbetet Några intressanta tekniktrender Bärbart Gester Haptisk interaktion Naturliga gränssnitt Ögonföljning Augmented Reality Autonoma flygfarkoster Informationsvisualisering Rumsliga teknologier Mobilitet 3D modellering Gamification Fjärrnärvaro Internet of things 3D skrivare