Climate Change Impacts
Fordham U. Conference
Carbon Politics and Finance (Science Panel)
29 October 2010
Jan W. Dash, PhD
Visiting Research Scholar, Fordham U.
Head, Strategic Risk Research, Bloomberg LP
Adjunct Professor, Courant Institute, NYU
Director Climate Initiative, UU-United Nations Office
Exec. Comm., UN Committee on Sustainable Development NY (CoNGO)
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Talk Outline
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Summary of Climate Change CC impacts
The Millennium Development Goals
Case study: Future crop yield loss (US)
Bottom Line
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Summary: Impacts of CC
• We are starting to see bad impacts NOW
– Impacts will get FAR WORSE if we do not act
• Developing countries will be hit hardest
– No Safe Haven: U.S. will be hit very hard.
• National and international security threat,
economic / investment disruption …
• Increases in: water shortages, crop failures, fires,
droughts, disease, flooding, military conflict,
species extermination, extreme weather, sea level
rise, heat waves, acidified oceans, migrations…
• Ref: IPCC Report Volume II, 2007 + Pentagon + …
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Millennium Development Goals
• MDGs apply to poorest countries (2015)
– All 192 countries (incl. US) signed
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Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality Rate
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
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CC Impacts = Threat to MDGs
• Direct Impacts:
– Health (increased disease), crops (yields down),
women and children (most vulnerable),
environment (drought, floods, fires …)
• Indirect Impacts example:
– Conflict between ethanol and food (true/perceived)
• N.B. Advanced biofuels (switch grass, poplar trees, algae on
non-agricultural land) won’t have same problem
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Science and Impacts
• Regional climate model studies => CC
impact forecasts, useful for:
– Mitigation decision input
– Adaptation decision input
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Warming Climate May
Devastate Major U.S. Crops
• Three of the most important crops produced in the United
States—corn, soybeans and cotton—are predicted to
suffer declines of as much as 80 percent if temperatures
continue to rise with manmade climate change
• Warming can be above threshold to damage/kill plants
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Schlenker and Roberts, Columbia & NC State U, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences
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Future Crop Yields depend
strongly on temperature
• Data (US, 1950-2005) => Nonlinear T response
– Yields increase with small T increase BUT
– If: T too high > 29oC for corn, 30oC for soybeans,
and 32oC for cotton => “Very harmful”.
• Climate Model used, with scenarios, forecasts T
– Future T = f(emissions) = g(human behavior)
• Combine data + models => forecast crop yields
• Conclusion: Business as usual => US crops hit
very hard
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Bottom Line
• Climate change negatively impacts
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Developing countries (e.g. MDGs)
U.S. (no safe haven)
Investment, economics, politics, national security …
Lives of people
• Need Mitigation and Adaptation action
– Really just Risk Management
– Cheaper and more humane to act now
– Ethical / moral aspects (later in this Conference):
• Social climate justice +
• Future generational equity (grandchildren)
• Lots of positive business opportunities
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Moral, Ethical Aspects to ACT
UN Committee Sustainable Development (CoNGO, NY)
Statement (Copenhagen, Cancun)
• We have a moral and ethical imperative to
learn about climate change / global
warming, and to act appropriately and
decisively. This imperative derives from
all people living today on the planet and
those who will follow us. We cannot have
succeeding generations say: "They refused
to learn" or "they knew but did not act."
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