Director, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)

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Vulnerability Assessment and
Adaptation Policies for C C
Impacts on the
Nile Delta Coastal Zones
By
Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy
Director of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)
National Water Research Center (NWRC)
Global Perspective
Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by
thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice
and ice sheets
Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations
around the world
2.0 mm/year
0.8 mm/year
Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period
Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion
20
Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004)
15
DMSL (mm)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers
25
25
20
20
DMSL
(mm)
DMSL(mm)
1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year
15
15
10
10
55
00
1960
1960
1970
1970
1980
1990
1980
1990
Year
Year
2000
2000
2010
2010
Sea Level Budget (IPCC-2007, mm/year)
+
+
+
1993-2003
1961-2003
Thermal Expansion
1.6 ± 0.5
0.4 ± 0.1
Mountain Glaciers
0.8 ± 0.2
0.5 ± 0.2
Greenland Ice Melt
0.2 ± 0.1
0.1 ± 0.1
Antarctic Ice Melt
0.2 ± 0.3
0.1 ± 0.4
Land Water Storage
=
Total of Observed Contributions
Observed Sea Level Change
?
?
2.8 ± 0.7
1.1 ± 0.5
3.1 ± 0.7
1.8 ± 0.5
1. According to observations and
measurements, average global increase
in sea level is 1-2 mm/year.
2. Mean Sea Level is projected to rise by
0.18 m to 0.59 m by 2100, But with
Significant Regional Variations, IPCC
2007)
Global sea-level change over the past 160,000 years
Sea level highly variable due to natural processes•
Sea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than present•
(Chappell & Shackleton, 1986)
Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase
during the 21st century according to
special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)
Projected global averaged surface warming
and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007
Scenario
Temperature Change
(Relative to 1980-1999
°C)
Sea Level Rise (m)
(Relative to 1980-1999)
Case
Best Estimate
Model-based range
excluding future rapid
dynamical exchange in the
ice flow
Constant year
2000
concentrations
0.6
Not available
B1 Scenario
A1T Scenario
B2 Scenario
A1B Scenario
A2 Scenario
A1F1 Scenario
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.4
4.0
0.18-0.38
0.20-0.45
0.20-0.43
0.21-0.48
0.23-0.51
0.26-0.59
Scenarios by
Projected SLR
for the Nile Delta.
Global Models
Temperature
Attributed trends depend on observations not
model simulated trends
Original model trend
Observations
+ internal variability
Time
Temperature
Attributed trends depend on observations
not model simulated trends
Scaling
Original model trend
Upper
Lower
Observations
+ internal variability
Attributed trend
+ uncertainty estimate
Time
Rain Gauge Network 1950-2000
CoRI Activities
Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was
investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)
and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands (1989-1992)
The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise
impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt (3500 km) in
terms of quality and quantity.
The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been
considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of
Egypt
The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has
raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.
Egyptian Coastline
15 Coastal Segments for Vulnerability Assessment Study
Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea
level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels
1m zone
2m zone
3m zone
Areas of Ecological interest in the Red Sea area
Vulnerability Analysis
Physical Mechanisms




Shoreline erosion/accretion
Flood frequency
Directly exposed hydraulic structures : e.g. ports, commercial
facilities, fish farms
Salinity intrusion
Major Impact and possible losses





Water level, waves characteristics, sediment flow, salinity levels
Ecological sustainability
Socio-economic responses, recreational capacity, tourism
Agricultural activities and drainage conditions
Fresh groundwater availability
Conclusion & Recommendations (1992)
Conclusions
If no response strategies are planned, major adverse impacts and serious
losses are expected in terms of:
 Deficiency in infrastructure functionality
 Community displacement
 Ecological deterioration
 Penetration of salt wedge
 Deficiency in drainage capacity
Recommendations
A comprehensive national response strategy
Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystem
Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme
Regular monitoring of vulnerable regions
Further studies & follow up of technological developments
Results by CoRI & Delft (1992) and IPCC (2006) are comparable
Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the
coastal zone of the Nile Delta as (coastal sand dunes and ridges).
Vulnerable areas defined by
IPCC in 2007
Vulnerable areas defined
by CoRI and Delft in 1992.
MWRI (Coastal Research Institute) increased its activities to define
precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological
features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges)
1900
Shoreline 1900
1810
1909
1935
1947
1964
1988
2000
Shoreline 1964
Shoreline 1971
Shoreline 1900
Shoreline 1988
1964
Shoreline 1964
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1971
Shoreline 1991
Shoreline 1988
1971
Shoreline 1955
Shoreline 1895
Shoreline 1988
Shoreline 1911
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1935
1955
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1983
1955
1982
1992
Shoreline 1995
Grand Hotel
Shoreline 2000
1983
1991
1995
Shoreline 1996
Shoreline 2000
u
eB
Lak
1988
1990
0 400 800 1000 m
us
rull
d
Pave
Light House
Road
1991
1990
1992
2000
Protect
ion Sea
Wall
2000
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION
NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER
COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
0 400 800 1000 m
1991
1965
Shoreline 1991
1990
Shoreline 1991
1911
1895
Shoreline 1955
1988
Shoreline 1996
Shoreline 1965
Shoreline 1982
Shoreline 1992
Shoreline 1990
Shoreline 1991
Shoreline 1992
Shoreline 2000
1935
0 200 400 600 800 m
Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet
(1810 to 2000)
0
0
400 800 1000 m
Shoreline Evolution at Damietta
Promontory (1895 to 2000)
Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort
(1955 to 1990)
200
400 m
GIS and Remote Sensing Unit
Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile
Branch (From 1965 to 2000)
24.0
28.0
BRP
1.5
P 2.
5
P 0.
1
RG
RGP
RG
48.0
9.7
BRP 57.7
GSP 1.0
3.9
BRP 55.0
BRP 56.6
RGP 0.0
BRP
43.0
38.0
BRP
BRP
BRP 16.5
BRP 20.0
BRP 9.0
BRP 9.5
BRP 11.4
BRP 13.0
BRP 13.4
BRP 14.8
BRP
P 6.
8
P 9.
0
WB
28.4
GSP
13.0
GSP
GSP
WB
P 10
.6
WBP
13.2
WBP 15.1
WBP
17.8
GSP
WBP 5.8
Ras El Bar Research Station Zone
28.3
GSP
27.0
GSP 26.4
GSP P 25.4
GS
24.4
GSP
.1
24
GSP 23.1
GSP 20.3
GSP
19.3
GSP
17.9
GSP
17.0
GSP
16.0
GSP
WB
BRP 6.0
4
40
BRP 8.0
BRP 7.0
BRP 5.0
BRP 4.0
BRP 3.0
BRP 2.4
BRP 2.0
BRP 1.5
BRP 1.0
BRP 0.6
BRP 0.2
WBP 50.0
WBP 35.0
WBP 25.0
WBP 21.7
4.6
0.1
P3
60
5.7
RH
80
WBP
100
WBP
120
WBP 30.0
140
WBP 62.6
WBPP61.6
WB 60.6
WBPP59.9
WB 58.6
WBP 57.6
WBP 56.8
East of Rosetta Mouth
160
WBP 40.0
West of Rosetta Mouth
180
WBP 45.0
10
20
Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971
Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated)
Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated)
Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982)
Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated)
Weather Station (Since 2000Separted)
Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated)
Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971
30 km
‫الشواطئ‬
‫المختلفة لمعهد‬
‫البحثية‬
‫واألنشطة‬
‫الحقلية‬
About
200 ‫بحوث‬
hydrographic
beach
profiles
along
the ‫المحطات‬
Nile Delta coast
GPP 0.0
40.0
P 32
.0
1
0
P2
0.0
RGP
.0
10
9.0
P 4 0.0
AL P 5 .0
AL P 51 2.0
AL LP 5 3.0
A
P5
.0
AL P 54 5.0
AL P 5 6.0
AL P 557.0.0
AALLPP 5859.0.0
ALLPP 60 .0
AAL
1
P 6 .0
AL P 62 3.0
AL P 6
AL
1 Institute Administration Building
2 Abu Qir Research Station
3 Rosetta Field Station
4 Burullus Field Station
5 Ras El Bar Research Station
2
RGP
P
RHP 0.0
AMP 15.0
RG
5.0
RH
1
P3
AL P33
AL P37
AL
P1
AL
P3
AL
P9
AL
4
P1
7
AL
P1
AL 19
P
AL
5
P2
AL
Abu Qir Research Station Zone
3
37.0
Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta
Mouth During The Past Century
5
P2
2.0
1994:1996
1991:1994
1990:1991
1988:1990
1987:1988
1983:1987
1981:1983
1971:1981
1955:1971
1942:1955
1909:1922
1898:1909
1922:1942
Time Period (Year)
RG
RHP
28.3
RHP
26.8
RHP
24.8
RHP
RH 23.0
RH P 22.0
P 21
RHP .0
20.0
R
RHHP 19
R P 18 .0
RHHP 1 .0
RH P 7.0
P 16.0
1
0
RG
20
P 6.0
RHP
30.0
RG
200
Burullus Field Station Zone
Rosetta Field Station Zone
Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory
(1900 to 2000)
1
P 4.
WB
9
P 2.
WB
Shoreline Retreat (meter/Year)
1996
2000
32o 00'

Mediterranean Sea
BURULLUS
ROSETTA
PROMONTORY
31o 30'
Baltim
DAMIETTA
PROMONTORY
Gamasa
Burullus
Lagoon
Abu Quir
Bay
Port Said
NILE DELTA
Beach and backshore
Old Dunes
Cultivated Land
Coastal Dunes
Desert
Northern Coast Ridge
0
20km
‫توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل‬
30o 00'
30o 30'
31o 00'
31o 30'
32o 00'
Suez Canal
31o 00'
Idku
Lagoon
32o 30'
Accretion and Erosion Patterns, Nile Delta Coasts
Population
1400000
Population of Damietta and Port Said
Damietta
Port Said
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
Year
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
0
Population (Thousands)
Increase of Population
(Thousands)
% of Increase
City
2006
2007
2008
2006/2007
2007/2008
2006/2007
2007/2008
Alexandria
4124
4165
4238
41
73
1
1.7
Damietta
1097
1112
1137
15
25
1.4
2.2
Port Said
571
576
588
5
12
0.9
2
Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR)
Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast.
(CoRI-2007), First Scenario
Station
Average
Annual
ASLT
(Cm)
Sea Level Sea Level Sea Level Sea Level
Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm)
2025
2050
2075
2100
Alex.
0.16
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
Al-Burullus
0.23
5.75
11.5
16.25
23.0
Port Said
0.53
13.25
26.5
39.75
53.0
Two Modules have been developed and in each
module three scenarios were established
•The first scenario was established by assuming that the
same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last
century) will occur till 2100.
•The second scenario was established by temperature
projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be
1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.
•The third scenario was established by temperature
projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the
current century.
Mediterranean Hydrological
Factors
Area = 2.5 million km2
Max Depth = 4400 m
Ave Depth = 1500 m
Water Vol. = 3.7 million km3
Water body comprises 3 layers with different
temperature and salinity profiles
•
Surface layer (75-300 m depth)
•
Intermediate layer (300-600 m depth)
•
Lower layer (more than 600 m depth)
Mediterranean Annual Water Balance
Evaporation
4144 km3
Income
rainfall
1000 km3
River flow
230 km3
Black Sea flow
152 km3
Total Inflow
1382 km3
Deficit
2762 km3
This deficit is compensated by 40,000 m3/s from Atlantic Ocean
through Gabal Tarek straight in an anti-clockwise flow as water
level in eastern side of the sea is 80 cm lower than that in the
ocean due to increased evaporation rates difference.
Preliminary Results
Module (1)
Business as usual
Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,
2025
2075
(CoRI 2007)
2050
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area
According to CoRI measurements till 2100
(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year
Total Area
Affected
(km2)
Total % of
the Nile
Delta Area
2025
2050
2075
2100
633.8
691.8
748.4
832.7
2.53
2.57
3.0
3.33
Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase
in Air Temperature (B1 Scenario (
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
0.9
1.3
1.8
1.8
ASLR at
Alexandria
7.0 cm
16.0 cm
27 cm
28 cm
ASLR at
Al-Burullus
8.75 cm
19.5 cm
32.25 cm
35.0 cm
ASLR at
Port Said
18.12 cm
39.5 cm
64.3 cm
72.5 cm
Temperature
(ºC)
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of
The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta
area According to B1 scenario till 2100
(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total Area Affected
(km2)
657.7
752
1021.9
1058.8
Total % of the Nile
Delta Area
2.63
3.0
4.1
4.23
Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase
in Air Temperature (A1F1 Scenario (
2025
2050
2075
2100
Temperature
(ºC)
1.2
2.2
3.2
4.0
ASLR at
Alexandria
13.0 (cm)
34.0 (cm)
55.0 (cm)
72.0 (cm)
ASLR at
Al-Burullus
14.75 (cm)
37.5 (cm)
60.30 (cm)
79.0 (cm)
ASLR at
Port Said
27.9 (cm)
68.8 (cm)
109.6 (cm)
144.0 (cm)
Year
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean
Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile
Delta area (A1F1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total Area Affected
(km2)
701
766.5
2348
2938
Total % of the Nile
Delta Area
2.8
3.1
9.4
11.75
Final Results
Module (2)
Considering Natural and Man-made
Protection Systems
Difference between Al-Manzala Lake water level
and Al-Salam Canal Bank level
Section
Number
Distance from the beginning of AlSalam Canal (km zero at the Nile
Damietta Branch) (km)
Difference in Levels
between the canal bank
and lake water (m)
1
8
3.28
2
12
2.84
3
16
3.21
4
27
3.6
5
38
3.13
6
43
2.68
Al-Manzala Lake Borders
Al=Atwy (8km)
(3.28m)
Al-Lithy (27 km)
(3.6 m)
Al-Rodah (12 km)
(2.84 m)
Al-Shipool (38 km)
(3.13m)
Al-Burullus Lake Borders
West Al-Burullus
Port (+1.5 m ) N
Baltim (+2.0 m) E
Baltim (+2.0 m) - E
West New Port
(+1.5 m) - N
New
Road
to (+
Kafr
New
Road
2.15 m) S
Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S
Brimbal Area
(+1.75 m) W
Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay
4
3
2
1
0
2
4
6
8
0
10
Distance along shore (Km).
12
14
6
5
Storm critical level
16
El Montaza western border
El Asafra
Bir Masoud
Sidi Bishr
Stanly
Sidi Gaber
12
Ibrahimeia
10
El Silsila
El Manshia
El Kashafa Club
Level above MSL (m).
Alexandria Cornish Level
ِ
13
11
Cornish Level
Protection works
9
8
7
18
Final Results
Module (2)
Considering Mohammed Ali Sea
Wall and Lakes Borders
Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,
(CoRI 2007)
2025
2075
2050
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta
Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100
(With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders)
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total Area Affected (km2)
93.68
134.0
139.2
183.8
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
0.37
0.54
0.56
0.74
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of
The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area
(B1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders)
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total Area Affected (km2)
118.5
169.45
221.83
243.1
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
0.45
0.68
0.89
0.97
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean
Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area
(A1F1 scenario)
(With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders)
Year
2025
2050
2075
2100
Total Area Affected (km2)
152.86
256.27
450
761.4
Total % of the Nile Delta Area
0.61
1.03
1.8
3.01
On-going Projects
Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in
the Nile Delta Coastal Zone, Egypt, 2009-2012
Funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC)
Main Objective
Research project addresses vulnerability assessment and
adaptation options for potential impact of SLR in coastal zone
Case study application in Ras ElBar - Gammasa Region
Project Overview
Project
Components
1. Regulatory
Framework and
Institutional
Capacity
2. On the ground
measures
Expected Outcomes
Expected Outputs
 Output 1.1 Coastal development legislation and
regulations modified (focusing on ICZM and EIA);
 Output 1.2 Institutional capacity of NCZMC
Enhanced capacity to improve
strengthened;
resilience of coastal settlements
 Output 1.3 Information systems established that
and development infrastructure
reflect climate change impacts/research on coastal
is strengthened
zones
 Output 1.4 Budgetary planning of Shore Protection
Agency enacted to reflect climate change risks;
 Output 2.1 Innovative adaptation pilot activities
implemented to protect vulnerable coastal lagoons;
Innovative and environmentally
 Output 2.2 Socio-economic assessment and
friendly adaptation measures
adaptation option appraisal undertaken;
enforced within the framework of
 Output 2.3 Integration of climate risk assessment
Nile Delta ICZM.
into the ICZM framework for the Nile Delta

3. Knowledge
management
M&E framework and knowledge
management system in place


Output 3.1 M&E system with measureable
indicators introduced;
Output 3.2 Lessons codified and disseminated
through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM)
Output 3.3 Lessons disseminated throughout
Egyptian Institutions.
Progress in Project:
Selective results
Vulnerability of Drainage System Infrastructures and
projected changes in soil salinity with Expected SLR
Main Objectives
Assess vulnerability for key infrastructures and prediction of changes in soil
salinity
Survey of drainage system infrastructure; main canals, hydraulic structures
;pump stations, WWTP; and important buildings/roads
Field investigations in selective profiles for collecting data of soil and ground
water properties
Results
 Majority of drainage infrastructures can be considered in safe zone
 Predicted changes in soil salinity as a result of SLR showed expand of
affected distance to reach 1 Kilometer from shoreline of the study area by
year 2100
Progress in Project: Selective results
Impact of SLR on Groundwater and Salinity
Intrusion
Main objective
Predict changes in salt intrusion and elevation in groundwater levels
Results
Potential advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface and
groundwater rise for SLR scenarios in years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100
Vulnerability analysis that highlighted spots with low resilience
capacity and hence need for special attention
Mitigation strategy with alternative policies for adaptation to be
considered within the study area
Predicted Movement of
Salinewater/Freshwater interface
5
0
-5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Elevation (m)
-10
-15
10
-20
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
-35
-40
Sea Level (SLR)
0
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
10
-20
Distance (m)
-30
-40
2100
1000
-10
0
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
-50
0
Land Level
1000
2000
3000
4000
6000
-20
-30
Distance (m)
-40
10
Land Level
0
Ground Water
-50
2075
5000
-10
-60
-10
Saline/Fresh Interface
0
Elevation (m)
-30
0
Elevation (m)
Land Level
Elevation (m)
-25
1000
2000
3000
-20
Distance
-30(m)
-40
-50
2050
-60
Land Level
Ground Water
Saline/Fresh Interface
-70
Distance (m)
2025
4000
5000
6000
Expected GW depths
in 2100 due to SLR
(1.2
5)
(-10)
(2)
(1.5)
(-5)
(0)
(-1)
(2)
(1.5
)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(1.5)
(1.7
5)
(1.25)
(1.5
)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1.2
5)
(2)
(1)
(1.2
5)
(1.75)
(1)
(1.7
5)
(1.5
)
(1.2
5)
(1)
(1.7
5)
(2)
(1)
(1.5
)
(2)
(1)
(1.5
)
(1)
(1.5
)
(1.7
5)
(1.25)
(2)
(1.25)
(1)
(1.5)
(1.75)
(1.5)
(1.75)
(1.75)
(2)
(1.2
(1.7 5)
5)
(1.5
)
(1.2
5)
Vulnerability assessment
Regions of concern
spots more susceptible to water logging as a result of
land level , soil properties and GW depth
Changes in Wave Climate and Sediment Transport
Main Objectives
Check the effect of global warming in wave climate and sediment
transport in front of the Nile delta coast
Follow the effect of changes in bed morphology on wave
characteristics and sediment transport
Process
Measurements of wave data in years1998 and 2010
Simulation of wave distribution using ImSedTran-2D model
Simulation of sediment transport using GENESIS
Changes in Wave Climate
50
Percentage of Occurrence (%)
Wave height
< 3 m
40
2 To< 3 m
1.5 To< 2 m
30
1 To< 1.5 m
0.5 To< 1 m
20
0 To< 0.5 m
10
0
N
NNE
NE
ENE
E
ESE
SE
SSE
S
Direction
SSW SW WSW
W
WNW NW NNW
Changes in Wave Characteristics
Changes in Wave Climate
Wave Climate
1998
2010
Significant wave height
0.94 m
1.31 m
Average wave height
0.5 m
0.76 m
Predominant wave direction
North NorthWest
(NNW)
NorthWest (NW)
Average storm height
2.75 m
2.46 m
Total duration of storms
1.6 day/year
3.5 day/year
predominant storm direction
North
NorthWest
Changes in Sediment Transport
Location
gross sediment transport rate
Gamassa to Damietta harbor
348000 m3/year
east of Damietta harbor
1342000 m3/year
west of the Damietta harbor
no noticeable change in sediment
transport
Regular Gathering with Civil Society
Stakeholders & local community categories
In cooperation with the project partners, CoRI rganizes
and hold meeting with civil society stakeholders and
various categories of the community in the study
area for:
Raising awareness
Encourage involvement
Guaranteed advocacy and cooperation from their part
in upcoming stages
Consultation for optimized adaptation policies
Positions of the surveyed beach profiles analyzed in
this study
Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change
Location
long-term change
Short-term change
Damietta Promontory
between profiles P41
and P47
Emotional processes (- Erosion along
38.2 m/year)
Damietta promontory
tip has been
terminated as a result
of the construction of
the 6-km long seawall
in 1996-2002
East of Damietta
Promontory (The
Damietta spit ).
No spit
Accretion with a rate
(3 m/year) and
formation of the spit .
Ras El Bar Beach
Erosion with a rate (7.7 m/year)
Accretion with a rate
(15 m/year) due to
building eight
detached breakwaters.
Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline
change
Location
long-term change
Short-term change
East of Damietta harbor
No erosion
A maximum rate of
erosion -13 m/year
West of Damietta harbor
Erosion with a rate (5
m/year).
Accretion with a rate
(15m/year).
Gamasa Embayment
Accretion with a
maximum rate of
20m/year.
The maximum rate of
accretion become 16
m/year
Erosion appears east of
Gamasa drain with a
rate( -9 m/year and -4
m/year)
Continuity & Application
GEF project
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta through
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Global Environment Facility
Goal
Enhance Egypt’s resilience and reduce vulnerability to
Climate Change impacts through ICZM in context of CC
Adaptation
Assessment
Adaptation Supporting
Systems
Adaptive Supporting Systems

According to IPCC summary report for decision makers,
Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas
vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying
deltas. (Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes
are one of the natural adaptation processes).

Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection
Authority (SPA) (Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus).

Natural sand dunes systems

Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir
Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.
•Resources and capacities of Coastal Research Institute
(CoRI) built since 1971 and other related-research
institutions in Egypt.
•The international road could act as the second defensive
line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it
should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable
meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure
against the impact of sea level rise.
•Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks
have levels more that two meters above lake's water level.
Aerial-photos used in the study do not consider the canal as
they were established before its construction.
Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and
the international coastal road
International coastal road
Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast
and coastal protection works
Sand Dunes At the
West Side of Rosseta
Region
Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low
Lands (1.5m - 2.5m Below Sea Level)
‫حائط محمد على‬
Abu Quir Bay
Muhammed Ali
Sea Wall
Low Lands (1.5 – 2.5 m Below Sea
Level)
Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall
Ras Al-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack
Before the Construction of Protection
Works
Ras Al Bar
Ras Al-Bar Resort Has Gained Lands After the
Construction of Protection Works
Detached Breakwater
Adaptation Process
and Policies






Sand dunes systems should be treated as the first
defensive line for the Nile Delta.
Decision makers in coastal governorates as well as
concerned ministers should be aware of the importance of
sand dunes systems and their role in protecting the
coastal zone of the Nile Delta.
Consideration should be paid to coastal lakes as one of
the most appropriate adaptive measure against sea level
rise.
Coastal international road should be considered as the
second protection measure and studies to support it are
urgently required.
Coastal protection constructions need regular
maintenance and should be considered in any coastal
zone management plans.
The northwest coast extended from Alexandria to the
Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has
elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.
Recommendations











Capacity building in terms of staff, technologies, modeling,
….etc.
A comprehensive national and regional response strategy
Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain
ecosystem
Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme
Research budget and funds should be increased to cope with
the national and international crisis regarding climate change
and its impacts and adaptation studies.
Building co-operative mechanizm to integrate all efforts
Awareness program and media campaign
Regional monitoring and observation system
Regional data base and knowledge exchange system
Regular Maintenance program for protection structures
The following aspects are recommended to be covered in
further studies for the coastal zones:
 Potential impacts on land and groundwater salinity
 Potential impacts on patterns of waves and currents
 Potential
impacts on erosion and accretion systems
due to currents, waves, and wind actions
 Potential impacts on lakes ecosystems
 Potential impacts on water resources and drainage
systems
 Potential impacts on fisheries due to changes
expected in current patterns
 Potential impacts on infrastructures and natural
resources of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta
 Potential impacts of climate changes on evaporation
from oceans and seas open waters and their role in
reducing SLR
 Potential impacts of temperature increase on phytoplankton role in absorbing CO2 and generating A2.
Thank You All
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