Investing in Today`s Volitile Market

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Positioning Your Portfolio for Today’s
Volatile Markets and the Coming
Recovery
By Matthew Lekushoff
Financial Advisor
[email protected]
www.matthewlekushoff.com
Topics
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•
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•
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How Did We Get Here?
The Importance of Multiple-Class Investing
Human Nature
Financial/Life Planning
Were Do We Go From Here?
How Did We Get Here
How Did We Get Here?
Success is simple……..but not easy!
Lance Armstrong
How Did We Get Here?
Roots in the aftermath of 9/11
Lowering interest rates to prevent recession
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•
•
•
Housing Bubble
Lending Bubble
Social Proof
Ignoring History
How Did We Get Here?
• Irrational Exuberance
• Tulipmania
• The South Sea Bubble
• Dot Com Bubble
Asset Allocation
Asset Allocation
Let every man divide his money into three parts,
and invest a third in land, a third in business,
and a third let him keep in reserve
Talmud
Circa 1200 B.C. – 500 A.D.
Historical Returns
S&P Index from 1825 to 2008 – Percentage Total Return
Diversification (random returns)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Highest
Return
Lowest
Return
Source: CIBC Asset Management Inc.
Objective of an Investor
• Rational investor wants to maximize returns
with a given amount of risk
Basis of
“Modern Portfolio Theory”
Modern Portfolio Theory
Efficient Frontier: Key principle behind portfolio management
Optimal Allocation
The
Efficient Frontier
Same Risk with
Greater Return
The optimal allocation is
the combination of
stocks, bonds, and cash
that maximizes expected
return for any level of
expected risk
Expected Return
High
Less Risk with
Same Return
Inefficient
Portfolio
Low
Low
Expected Risk
High
Investment Risks
• Event Risk (can’t control)
• economic, social and political events
• Market Risk (can control)
• Security Selection
• Concentration
• Asset Allocation
– Cash, Bonds, Stocks (sector, geography), Real Assets
• Inflation (rising prices – can’t control)
• Taxes (dependant on source of income)
• Human Nature (can control)
Variability of Performance
Factors Affecting Risk Tolerance
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•
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Time horizon
Ability to handle market volatility
Aggressiveness of goals
Different type of goals
– Compartmentalizing
Types of Assets
• Cash
– T-Bills/GIC
• Fixed Income
– Bonds
• Equities/Real Assets
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–
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Canadian Equities
US Equities
International Equities
Commodities
Real Estate
Long Term Diversification
• Annual Returns for Decade Ending February 2009
US Stocks (-1%)
International Stocks (1%)
Real Estate (7%)
Natural Resources (7%)
• Rebalance on a regular basis
Did Diversification Work
During the Crisis?
What Worked?
– Cash/T-bills
– Bonds
What Kind of Worked?
– Gold/Precious Metals
– Real Estate
What Didn’t Work?
– International Diversification
Why didn’t it work as well as hoped?
In times of crisis only two things matter
• Risk and Safety
Investors were fleeing risk into safety
Asset Allocation
Conclusion
In times of crisis allocation between cash, bonds and
equities is most important
Over the long term (5 years+) allocation between and
rebalancing of multiple asset classes is very
important
Human Nature
Human Nature
We have seen the enemy……..and he is us!
The Pogo Papers
Human Nature
• Morningstar Survey
– Looked at all 17 categories of securities they follow
– In all 17 the time weighted returns are higher than the dollar
weighted returns
• Top 10 Internet Funds 1997-2002
– Time Weighted average 1.5%/year
– Dollar weighted -72%
• Tax Bill was 24% due to turnover
Human Nature
• Over Confidence
– 82% of students consider themselves better than
average drivers
– Men are more overconfident than women in areas
like finance
– Overconfidence leads to too much trading and
higher fees as well as taking too much risk
Human Nature
• Pride and Regret (Get-Evenitis)
– Selling winners too early and losers too late
- Investors are 50% more likely to sell a
winner than a loser
Would I buy this stock if I didn't own it?
Human Nature
• Considering the Past
– People tend to use a past outcome as a factor in
evaluating a current risky situation
– People take a larger risk after large gains and less
risk after loses
– However sometimes after losing money some
investors will "double down" to get even
Human Nature
• Mental Accounting
– Viewing investments on an individual basis as
opposed to part of the whole.
Human Nature
• Representativeness and Familiarity
– Canadians owning mostly Canadian stocks
– Residents of Atlanta owning lots of Coke
– Employees owning a high percentage of their
company's stock.
– Over 50% of the time an investor becomes
interested in a stock because another person
mentions it
Human Nature
• Social Interaction and Investing
– Herding or social proof
– Buying Nortel because everyone else owns it.
• Emotion and Investing
– Compared the daily return in 26 stock exchanges
around the world to the weather in the 26
exchanges.
– When they annualized the difference between the
sunniest and worst days the difference was 24.6%
Human Nature
Conclusion
Investors need to work hard to be rational!!
Financial/Life Planning
Financial/Life Planning
I have always thought that one man of
tolerable abilities may work great changes,
and accomplish great affairs among
mankind, if he first forms a good plan!
Benjamin Franklin
Why do we invest
• To reach a goal or objective
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Buy a house
Retirement
Achieve financial independence
Protect family
Create a legacy
Goal of an Investor
• Increase the probability of reaching your
goals
or
• Reduce the probability of not reaching your
goals
Financial/Life Planning
Two biggest risks to achieve your financial goals
•
•
Volatility – Short Term
Inflation – Long Term
Inflation
Order of Returns
Reduce Risk of Large Losses
• Making mistakes early can hurt you in the long
run
• Invest $100,000
• Investment drops 20% to $ 80,000
• You need to earn 25% to break even again
• $80,000 X 1.25% = $100,000
Probability of Reaching Goals
Comfort Assessment
Uncertain <75%
A confidence level below
75% means that there is
too high of a chance you
may not achieve your
goals. Adjustments need
to be made to your goals,
your allocation or your
investments
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Sacrifice >90%
A confidence level above
90% indicates that you are
needlessly sacrificing your
financial goals. You could
take less investment risk,
achieve larger or more
goals and still maintain
confidence in your financial
future.
Uncertain
Comfort
Sacrifice
Confidence & Comfort (in “balance”)
A confidence level between 75% and 90% should give you confidence that your goals can be met. This reading indicates a set of goals that
is manageable and avoids unnecessary investment risk. You may find at some future date minor changes may be suggested, but they are
likely to be small, easily manageable and exposed well in advance through ongoing monitoring.
This analysis simultaneously evaluates your goals, your investment allocation and your assets to determine how confident you can be
that your goals will be met. The Wealthcare process subjects your goals and investment strategy to this sophisticated ‘stress testing’ process
which simulates 1000 market environments, both good and bad. Your Confidence or Comfort is the percentage of the 1000 simulations that
achieve your goals. For example, if you achieved all of your goals or more in 830 of 1000 tests your
Achieving Your Goals
$3,000,000
Your
Portfolio
$1,800,000
$200,000
54
55
56
57
58
Age
59
60
61
Monitoring Your Progress…
As financial markets, financial goals and priorities change, we monitor
your progress on an ongoing basis. The Wealthcare process identifies in
advance the future portfolio values needed to maintain balance between
confidence and undue sacrifice. This monitoring process enables us to
track where your current portfolio falls so we can alert you of potential
problems, or help you achieve additional goals you may have.
Additionally, this dynamic process recognizes that throughout your life,
goals and priorities change. In such cases we will design new
recommendations for you.
Financial/Life Planning
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Estate Planning
Risk Planning
Tax Planning
Business Planning
Retirement Planning
Life Planning
Financial/Life Planning
• Conclusion
– Having a well thought out plan is essential in
order to reach your goals and get the most out of
your life
– Even the best plans need to be updated on a
regular basis
Where Do We Go From Here?
Questions?
By Matthew Lekushoff
Financial Advisor
[email protected]
www.matthewlekushoff.com
Recommended Readings
• Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
– Charles Mackay
• Influence and the Psychology of Persuasion
– Robert Cialdini
• Seeking Wisdom – From Darwin to Munger
– Peter Bevelin
• The Importance of Muliti-Class Investing (White Paper)
– Roger Gibson
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