The German „Energiewende“:
Implications for Europe
Climate and Energy Package. Myths and costs in the context of the
road map 2050
Warsaw, September 27th 2011
Post Fukushima Energy Policy in Germany
“Speedier Energiewende”
• Adjusted goals 2020:
– Share of Renewables 35 %
– Reduction of electricity consumption 10 %
– Reduction of heat demand in buildings 20 %
• Goals 2050 still valid:
– Reduction of CO2-emissions at least 80%
– Electricity production: Renewables 80%
– Reduction of energy consumption 25%
• Phase-out of nuclear power until 2022
• Strengthening the supergrid
• Rising prices: Protecting the eletricity intensive industry
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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West German Energy Programme 1977:
Following the French path
TWh
Foundation of the
Green Party
Level today
Anti nuclear protest
beginns
Nuclear Power
Coal
Lignite
Gas
Year
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Reality 2011
German Electricity Production first half year 2011: 283 TWh
21%
7%
Coal, Lignite, Gas
Nuclear Power
Renewables
20%
5%
Wind
Biomass
3%
4%
Water
Solar
Other
59%
1%
Quelle: BDEW, AG Energiebilanzen
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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The international context:
Growth of production capacities
2000
+ 36 %
+ 48 %
+ 153 %
1500
2010
GW
2015
1000
2020
+ 437 %
2025
+ 55 %
+ 594 %
2030
- 42 %
500
Eigene Darstellung, Zahlen: Frost und Sullivan 2011
O
th
er
R
en
ew
ab
le
s
d
W
in
er
W
at
r
le
a
N
uc
as
G
il
O
C
oa
l
0
• Capacity growth until 2030: 41 %
• Generation growth until 2030: 63 %
• Rising problems to satisfy electricity demand: Secure supply
as a decisive economic factor
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Germany has lost its tecnological edge in
renewables
Shares of newly installed global
wind capacity 2010
100%
90%
24%
34%
80%
Vestas
15%
70%
60%
Sonstige
30%
21%
50%
General Electric
9%
40%
Others
Germany
China
69%
30%
Goldwind
9%
Siemens
5%
Enercon
Dongfang
7%
6%
Suzlon
Sinovel
Gamesa 6%
6%
6%
45%
20%
10%
0%
7%
2004
2010
Share of global solar turnover
Quelle: VDMA, Dewi
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Nuclear Power phase-out
•
Immediate closedown of the
seven oldest nuclear plants and
Krümmel
•
This corresponds to 40 % of
German nuclear capacity
•
Last three plants will be closed
on 31st december 2022
•
Christian-liberal coalition returned
to the accord between the the
socialist-green government and
the nuclear plants operators in
2000
•
Decision to activate 2.000 MW
fossil reserve capacities
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Is there a European energy market?
Interconnectors` Capacities 2009
•
•
1.400
DK
The political goal is to create
an EU internal energy market
This has not been achieved yet
– The grid connections between
1.800
NL
600
S
600
3.900
3.400
the member states are only
weakly developed
3.400
PL/CZ
1.800
– No European electricity
2.100
exchange exists
– Therefore there is no
European merit order
3.200
4.000
1.700
F
CH
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
1.000
1.600
A
8
Marginal Costst / €/MWh
Merit Order: Pricing at an electricity exchange
Market Price
Supply Prognosis
Spread/Earnings
Nuclear Power, Lignite
Coal, Gas
Pump Storage, Oil
Demand kWh
Base Load
Mid Load
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
Peak Load
9
Germany has lost its exporter status
France
Import
+ 2 000 000
Czech
Republic
+ 1 000 000
Januar
Denmark
MWh
-
Poland
Belgium
Others
- 1 000 000
Februar
März
April
Mai
Austria
Netherlands
Switzerland
Sum
- 2 000 000
Export
- 3 000 000
• 55 % of missing nuclear production is replaced by better weather and higher solar production
• 45 % is replaced by imports
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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European implications: grid stability
•
Germany is now net electricity
importer
•
After the shutdown of the nuclear
power plants with their stable feedin, the risk of blackouts has risen
also for the neighbours
•
Especially southern Germany lacks
production capacities
•
Other countries like Switzerland,
Austria, Netherlands, France cannot
be sure to get the needed energy
•
They will have to strengthen their
grids faster to take in more volatile
power from Germany
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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European implications: prices
•
•
•
•
•
Germany has enough
capacity to supply itself
But: merit order has shifted
towards more expensive
electricity production
Thus, it is more lucrative for
power plants from
neighbouring countries to sell
their electricity in Germany
Lower prices in Germany may
result
But also higher prices in the
neighbour countries because
of reduced supply (scarcity
signals)
Prices in France, UK,
Netherlands and Belgium
have risen by 10 %
92,0
90,0
88,0
86,0
closed nuclear plants
84,0
GW
•
reserve
82,0
peak demand
80,0
78,0
76,0
74,0
Before Energiewende
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
After Energiewende
12
European implications:
CO2-certificates and climate targets
In 2010 nuclear plants
produced 43,6 TWh
and zero emissions
Same amount produced by fossil plants:
26 Mio tons CO2
ETS: Higher Prices for
all participants
Replacement by
imports: Germany
exports emissions
400 Mio. Euro extra
for CO2-certificates at
15 Euro/ton
Climate Targets?
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Neighbours‘ strategies
Tusk: „Coal is back on
the agenda“
•Finish nuclear plant
near Kaliningrad
•Threatens Lithuania‘s
nuclear plans
•Become net exporter
•Rising exports in the
long run not possible
•Enlarge nuclear
power plant
•No ambition to close
German gap
•Expects severe
power shortages
•2016 lack of 3-6 GW
•Look for other
suppliers
•Strengthen the grids
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
•Growing importance
in northwestern
Europe
•Enlarge the capacity
by 50 % until 2018
•Until 2014 already 7
GW are under
construction
14
EU policy
Immediate reaction after Fukushima: stress tests
-
European Council decision in March: all nuclear power plants in the
EU have to undergo a risk and safety assessment (stress-tests)
-
European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group elaborated common
specifications, stress tests started in June
-
First results to be presented at European Council in December
EU legislation:
-
The EU has competence for: functioning of energy market,
interconnection of networks, security of supply, energy efficiency and
renewable energies, climate protection
-
The EU has NO competence for: choice and exploiting of energy
sources, general structure of energy supply in Member States
-
Nuclear safety lies inbetween: framework directive but no EU
standards
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Future EU policy
Is the German unilateral reaction to Fukushima the starting
point for a real common EU energy policy?
• Secure supply is a European Issue: Nabucco
• Install renewables where it is cheapest
• Creating level playing field for all companies
• EU energy policy as a means to further strengthen integration
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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Dr. Sebastian Bolay
Director Energy and climate policy
German Chamber of Inudstry and
commerce
Breite Str. 29
10178 Berlin
Fon +49(0)30.20308-2202
Fax +49(0)30.203085-2202
www.dihk.de
bolay.sebastian@dihk.de
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe
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