COLD CLIMATE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: LESSONS LEARNED PHILIPPE C. PONTBRIAND RES-Canada Technical Lead Collaborators: Eric Muszynski, Rory Curtis 2nd NOVEMBER 2010 Presentation Plan • Introduction – Canadian climate – Impact of Cold Climate (CC) on project development • Icing – Icing type – Icing prediction – RES experience • Cold climate measurement system – Tower and instrumentation – Portable power system – Cost/Benefit analysis • Cold climate and uncertainty Introduction Mean Temperature (°C) • Lesson #1 C anada = C • Challenges – – – – Very cold average temp Extreme min. and max. temp Average snow depth 0.5 to 2m Icing over 6-7 months old Impact of CC on Project development Tower Installation Time constraints Wind measurement Icing on Instruments Load on met towers Maintenance Site access Cold Temp. RFP Financing Requirements Predicted Wind Predicted Wind Predicted Energy Predicted Energy Higher Risks $/KWh Price Equity vs Debt Percent data capture (%) Development Winter 1 Winter 2 Winter 3 Icing and Wind Resource Assessment Type of Icing • Precipitation Icing – Freezing rain • Regional • Not very common • High impact – Wet Snow Worst enemies • Not so common on site • Varying adhesion • In cloud Icing – Rime ice • Most common • Local • Strong adhesion – Frost Klock et al., 2001 • Not very common Will there be icing at my site? • Ice Map – Freezing rain • Public Maps : Env. Canada • Very General – Rime ice + Freezing Rain • Few maps for Canada • Not much research Cortinas et al. 2004 Comeau et al. 2008 • Public Ice Measurement Data Goodrich (Rosemount) Ice Sensor • Almost none exists: Airports Env. Canada • Often far from site • Not always accurate Altitude VS Icing in Canada • 75 met towers operated by RES across Canada – Full winter of data(October to May) Above 550 meters AMSL: – Anemometer height from 50 – 80m Sensors affected > 10% of time Hours of icing (Oct-May) Mean hours of icing of unheated instrument vs Altitude Altitude (m asl) 8 Cold Climate Measurement System Cold climate measurement systems Tubular 50-60m Lattice 80m Vaisala WAA252 NRG IceFree + Lower initial cost - High maintenance cost A2 HE-A1 A4 - More expensive A1 HE-V1 A3 + Low maintenance cost V1 - Re-use value A6 A5 + Re-use value V2 - More likely to collapse - Longer to install - No data @ Hub Height + Data @ Hub Height ? Cold Climate Met Mast Life Cycle Applies only to sites prone to icing Assumption 2 : 2 maintenances per year per mast Assumption 3: For lattice: 1 tower out of 2 is refurbished. Assumption 4: For tubular: 1 tower out of 4 fails over lifetime Cost Ratio Assumption 1: Cumulative Running Cost Met Masts Summary 80 m lattice • Good long term value • Reduced shear uncertainty Great Primary Mast • Potential for better data availability 50 – 60 m tubular • Good short term value • Easier and faster to install Great Secondary Mast Autonomous Power System Small Wind Turbine RES Generators Wind Turbines 1 kW: RES Generator: • Cheap: $10K • Max of 2 heated instruments • Not much flexibility • Eco-Friendly • Affected by trees • Tend to freeze • More: $35K • Many instruments • Flexible 1st generation 2nd generation • Close to 100% availability • Remote diagnostic tools • Easy to deploy RES Autonomous Power System Concept Heating system concept Impact of CC on Project development Tower Installation Time constraints Wind measurement Icing on Instruments Load on met towers Maintenance Site access Cold Temp. RFP Financing Requirements Predicted Wind Predicted Wind Predicted Energy Predicted Energy Higher Risks $/KWh Price Equity vs Debt Percent data capture (%) Development Winter 1 Winter 2 Winter 3 Cold Climate and Uncertainty Cold Climate and Uncertainty •P50 is the amount of energy expected to be produced in an average year • 50% chance lower. 50% chance higher than this value •For many projects debt is sized on 1 year P99 • Annual energy production only expected to be as low as this (or lower) once every 100 years • What is the effect of higher P99/P50 ratio? • In other words: What is the value of lower uncertainty? • Example: 100MW project, $135/MWh, 35% Cf , P99(1 Year) / P50 = 70% • Increase P50 energy by 1% (Increase Cf to 35.35%), • Power price will reduce by ~ $1.35/MWh • Keep P50 at 35% Cf and increase P99(1 Year) / P50 ratio by 1% to 71% • Power price will reduce by more than one might think • 1% P99/P50 change has same value as around 0.5% to 0.7% change on P50 • Just an example treating P50 and P99 in isolation. Project financing dependent Conclusions Conclusions: •First of All … • Never underestimate the challenges of Canada’s cold climate •Icing •Not much research available to help characterize a Canadian site •Information about icing can be extracted from simple parameters like altitude •Towers and Instrumentation •Tower and instrument type need to be chosen carefully • Heating the instruments with the proper power system is a must •Cost of Uncertainty • De-icing and maintenance of instruments are key to reducing uncertainty