THE
ZIMBABWE
ECONOMY
Recovery Challenges
Presentation by
John Robertson
AGRICULTURE
Sales Volume Indices: 1997=100
180
160
140
Maize
Tobacco Flue Cured
Soya beans
Tea
Paprika
Citrus
Sugar
Wheat
Cotton
Groundnuts
Coffee
Flowers
Fresh Produce
Dairy
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
ZIMBABWE’S FOOD IMPORTS
Percentages of Total: 2000 to 2007
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
FOOD IMPORTS
4
2
0
2000
Source: CSO & IMF
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Estimates
MINING PRODUCTION BASE
METAL & MINERAL ORES
900 000
Asbestos
Iron Ore
Nickel
800 000
TONNES
700 000
Chrome Ore
Lithium minerals
Phosphate
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
Robertson Economic Information Services
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
100 000
MANUFACTURING
All Groups Annual Indices
120
100
80
- 82%
60
40
20
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
TOTAL EXPORTS
US$ Value of Annual Shipments
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
Robertson Economic Information Services
2008
2009
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
2010 Projections
$1,5 billion
B of P Gap
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
IMPORTS
$3,4 billion
1
0,5
0
Source: Ministry of Finance
EXPORTS
$1,9 billion
TOTAL FORMAL EMPLOYMENT
Annual Averages
LOWEST
1 400
FIGURE
SINCE
1970
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
Robertson Economic Information Services
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
1980
200
*Estimates
ZIMBABWE:
GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE
10
LAND
REFORM
5
0
-5
Source: CSO + IMF + Robertson Forecasts
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
-15
1982
-10
1980
Year-on-Year Growth %
15
GDP COMPARISONS:
Southern African Countries
700
600
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
500
400
300
200
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source: IMF Africa Dept & World Economic Outlook
Tanzania
Malawi
Lesotho
0
Kenya
100
Gross Domestic PRODUCT
per Head, Ireland compared to Portugal & Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
needs
more
companies
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ireland
Portugal
Zimbabwe
Gross Domestic PRODUCT
per Head, Ireland compared to Portugal & Zimbabwe
NOT just the
change of
ownership
of the few we
already have
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ireland
Portugal
Zimbabwe
ZIMBABWE’S GDP –
PERCENTAGE
COMPARISON WITH PORTUGAL
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
PORTUGAL
98%
UNREALISED
POTENTIAL
ZIMBABWE
POPULATION GROWTH 1890 TO 1990
10 000 000
9 000 000
8 000 000
7 000 000
6 000 000
5 000 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
1 000 000
0
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
I