The Evolution of Deterrence

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The Evolution of Deterrence

The Eisenhower Years

Eisenhower elected in 1952

Concerned about the large increases in defense spending in the last years of the Truman administration.

But also worried about

Communist expansionism.

The “New Look”

Limit defense spending.

To contain Communism:

Rely upon U.S. nuclear arsenal.

For proxy wars involving allies, assist with air and sea forces.

Expressed in NSC-162/2 (October 1953)

Secretary of State:

John Foster Dulles

In January 1954, gives a speech stating administration’s decision:

“to depend primarily upon a great capacity to retaliate, instantly, by means and at places of our choosing.”

Sparks creation of the term

“Massive Retaliation.”

Means of “retaliation”

Initially, Strategic Air Command

B-52 Stratofortress enters service, 1955

The Missile Age

Sputnik launched

October 4, 1957

U.S. military branches had already been pursuing strategic missile programs.

U.S. Strategic Missile Programs

Atlas (ICBM, USAF)

Titan (ICBM, USAF)

Thor (IRBM, USAF)

Snark (cruise missile,

USAF)

Jupiter (IRBM, Army)

Polaris (IRBM/FBM,

USN)

Nuclear submarines

First: U.S.S. Nautilus (1955)

First ballistic missile submarine: U.S.S. George

Washington (1960)

Criticisms of the New Look and

Nuclear Deterrence

For a crisis elsewhere in the world, how credible was an American threat of heavy retaliation when the U.S.S.R. had the capacity to inflict massive damage on the

U.S. itself?

What if the Soviet Union launched a preemptive strike at the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal?

Problems assessing Soviet capabilities

By mid-1950’s Soviet internal security blocks sources of human intelligence.

Other attempts to obtain intelligence:

National Security Agency (NSA) formed in

1952 to listen to radio traffic.

CIA – wiretapping phones

Radar stations established around periphery of U.S.S.R.

U-2 overflights

Lack of knowledge enhances fear of U.S. vulnerability

“bomber gap” debate: 1954-56

Sputnik launch, 1957

“missile gap” issue at end of Eisenhower administration

Civilians shape deterrence policy

Gaither Committee (report: November 1957)

RAND Corporation

Prominent theorists:

Bernard Brodie

Herman Kahn

William Kaufman

Henry Kissinger

Thomas Schelling

Albert Wohlstetter

The Problem of Pre-emption

If a pre-emptive strike could destroy a nation’s nuclear arsenal, that arsenal may not deter war, but could actually encourage an attack.

Could create an unstable political environment where a crisis could encourage such a strike.

Nuclear Deterrence:

A short lexicon

First strike (one that attempts destroy enemy’s weapons)

Second strike (one that can survive a first strike and retaliate)

Counterforce (strike on military targets)

Countervalue (strike on civilian targets)

Other aspects of Eisenhower administration security policy

Alliances

Arms talks

Economic and military aid, and covert actions, to defeat communist insurgencies.

NATO & the Federal Republic of

Germany (West Germany)

First formed in 1949.

“Fully sovereign” in 1955.

Acquired full control over its domestic and foreign policy.

Formed the Bundeswehr, would grow to 12 divisions (500,00 men) and become integrated into NATO.

Would only arm with nuclear weapons if order to by NATO.

NATO & Nuclear Weapons

1954: Adopts “New Look” approach of relying more on nuclear arms in place of larger conventional forces.

Initial assumption that tactical nuclear devices could be used to defend against a

Soviet invasion.

Thousands of such weapons deployed to

Europe in 1950’s

Nukes & European expectations

U.S. emphasis on nuclear arsenal to deter war with U.S.S.R. made nuclear weapons a symbol of American commitment to defend Europe.

Implications?

Asia

U.S. signs bilateral pacts with South Korea

(1953) and Taiwan (1955).

Gets Japan to maintain a minimal defense force – but it won’t accept nuclear arms.

Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) formed, 1954:

Initial members: U.S., U.K., France, Philippines,

New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand.

Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam added shortly thereafter.

The problems with allies

Small-scale conflict between Nationalist and Communist

Chinese, 1953-54 and

1958.

Ongoing border incidents along

Korean DMZ.

Indochina

French suffer large defeat at Dien Bien

Phu, 1954.

U.S. gets France to negotiate with

Viet Minh

Vietnam divided at

17 th parallel

The Middle East

The Baghdad Pact, 1955

U.S. pressures U.K., Iran , Iraq, Pakistan &

Turkey to form alliance.

Effort to deter Soviet pressure in the oil-rich region, which was unstable given the waning of British influence.

Later, U.S. joins alliance; becomes known as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in

1959.

More problems with allies

The Suez Crisis (1956-57)

President Gamal Abdel Nasser orders nationalization of Suez Canal.

Israel, Great Britain & France invade, occupy

Canal Zone and Sinai.

U.S. pressures and occupying countries to withdraw.

The Eisenhower Doctrine, 1957

President pledges U.S. assistance to any

Middle Eastern country threatened by aggression from any state “controlled by international communism.”

Does not prevent continuing problems in region, 1957-58:

Iraq: coup deposed monarchy, new regime leaves Pact.

Jordan: monarchy threatened

Lebanon: sank into civil war.

Latin America

Cuba: Batista regime collapses in 1959,

Fidel Castro comes to power.

Communist movements active in

Columbia and

Venezuela.

How effective was the

New Look?

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