Mortgage Pass-Through Securities Mortgage Pass-Through Securities • Cash flow passed through to the investors are less than the cash flow from the underlying mortgage due to: – Servicing fees – Guaranteeing fees • Investors receive CF on a pro rata basis • Weighted average coupon rate (WAC) • Weighted average maturity (WAM) MPTs • Agency pass-throughs – Fannie Mae – Freddie mac – Gannie Mae Also referred to as GSE pass throughs • Only conforming loans • Many market participants/investors will agency pass-throughs as implicitly carrying credit guarantee of U.S. government – Low credit risk MPTs • Non-Agency pass-throughs – Commercial banks – Thrifts – Private conduits • No implicit or explicit guarantees from the US government • Typically rated by rating agencies MPTs • Factors affecting rating – Property types • Condo; single family – Loan types • Fixed rate with level payment; adjustable rate; balloon – Loan terms – Geographical dispersion – Size – Seasoning – Purpose (refi vs. new purchase) MPTs • Usually rated by the rating agencies – Enough internal or external credit enhancement to obtain AA or AAA ratings • Internal enhancement – – – – – Reserve funds Excess spread accounts Overcollateralization Senior/Subordinate structure Shifting interest structure • Redirect prepayments to senior class • External enhancement – Insurance – 3rd party guarantor must have a rating higher than the pool rating Prepayment Conventions • Conditional prepayment rate (CPR) – Annual prepayment of the remaining outstanding principal value – On top of the scheduled principal payment • Single-Monthly Mortality Rate – Similar to CPR, but monthly • Relationship 1 - CPR = (1 - SMM)12 hence SMM = 1 – (1-CPR)1/12 • Prepayment – SMM * (OLB – Scheduled Principal PMT) PSA Benchmark CPRs • The Public Securities Association (PSA) prepayment benchmark assumes: – CPR grows 0.2% per month before the loan/pool reaches 30 month / 6% – Then CPR will stay flat at 6% for the remaining life of the loan/pool – CPR = 6% * min (t / 30, 1) • The benchmark is referred to as “100%” PSA, or “100 PSA” – Slower or faster speeds of prepayment is referred to as some percentage of PSA – 50 PSA; 150 PSA; 300 PSA – Just a convention of prepayment behavior An Excel Example • • • • • WAC = 8.125% WAM = 357 Month Coupon rate for MPT = 7.5% Fees = .625% Pool balance = $400,000,000 Prepayment Modeling • Housing turnovers (home sales of existing houses) – Employment – Family status – Income and house price changes In general, not sensitive to mortgage rate • Cash-out refi – Depend on house price appreciation and home equity accumulation • Rate/term refi – Refinancing ratio = WAC / current mtg rate Prepayment Modeling • Other reasons – Curtailment / partial prepayment – Defaults – Historically less than 1% of prepayment Prepayment Modeling • Variables in the prepayment “regression” – Seasoning – Seasonality – HPI – LTV – WAC / Mortgage Rate • Pick up after ratio > 0.6 • Burnout effect The PSA Standard Default Assumption • SDA – 0.02% in month 1 – Increase by 0.02% b/w month 1 and 30 – Default stays at 0.60% b/w month 31 and 60 – From month 61 to 120, declines from 0.6^ to 0.03% – From month 120 on, remain constant at 0.03% Mortgage Prepayment Risk • Unlike treasuries, mortgage payment is uncertain – Contraction risk – Extension risk • Macauley duration – Weighted average term to maturity • Weight is the present value of the CF in total PV • Average life – Average time to receipt of principal payment • Weighted by the amount of principal expected