Slide
Title
Extreme
Heat Events
Climate Change Training Module
Extreme Heat Events,
Climate Change and
Public Health
Minnesota Climate and Health Program
Minnesota Department of Health
Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit
October 2012
625 Robert Street North
PO Box 64975
St. Paul, MN 55164-0975
Notice
MDH developed this presentation based on
scientific research published in peer-reviewed
journals. References for information can be
found in the relevant slides and/or at the end
of the presentation.
2
Learning Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in
Minnesota
2. Define extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
3
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends
in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
4
Weather versus Climate
 Weather: conditions of
the atmosphere over a
short period of time
 Climate: conditions of the
atmosphere over long
periods of time (30-year
standard averaging
period)
5
Climate Changes in Minnesota
 There have been three recent significant
observed climate trends in Minnesota:
 The average temperature is increasing
 The average number of days with a high
dew point may be increasing
 The character of precipitation is changing
6
Temperature Changes
Minnesota Average Temperature
12 month period ending December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
Temperature (°F)
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
Ending Year of Period
Annual Average Temperature
10-Year Running Average
7
Temperature Changes
 Three significant observations in this overall
warming:
 Winter temperatures have been rising about twice
as fast as annual average temperatures
 Minimum or 'overnight low' temperatures have
been rising faster than the maximum
temperature, or ‘daytime high’
 Since the early 1980s, the temperature has risen
slightly over 1°F in southern Minnesota to a little
over 2°F in much of the northern part of the state
8
Dew Point Changes
 Dew point definition: Dew point is a measure
of water vapor in the air.
 The higher the dew point, the more difficult it
is for people's sweat to evaporate, which is
how they would otherwise shed body heat.
 The number of days with high dew point
temperatures (≥ 70 °F) may be increasing in
Minnesota.
9
Dew Point Changes
Source: Dr. Mark Seeley, Climatologist, University of Minnesota
10
Precipitation Changes
On average, the total precipitation in the state has increased
since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.
Minnesota Total Annual Precipitation
12 month period ending in December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
40
Precipitation (inches)
35
30
25
20
15
10
Ending Year of Period
Total Annual Precipitation
10-year Running Average
11
Precipitation Changes
 The character of precipitation in Minnesota is
changing
 More localized, heavy precipitation events
 Potential to cause both increased flooding and
drought
12
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in
Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
13
Definition of Extreme Heat Events
Criteria shift depending upon:
 Temperature
 Dew Point/ Relative
Humidity
 Cloud cover
 Different local standards
for what is ‘unusually’ hot
weather
14
Heat Index
 The Heat Index (HI): calculation that describes how the air
temperature and dew point are perceived the human body
15
National Weather Service
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National Weather Service
Greater MN Extreme Heat Warning System:
Heat Advisory
 Maximum heat index is expected to reach 100°F
and/or the maximum temperature is ≥ 95°F
 Warnings issued if advisory criteria are
expected for ≥ 4 days and/or maximum heat
index is ≥ 105°F with minimum heat index ≥
75°F for at least 48 hours
Source: NWS, 2011
17
National Weather Service
Ramsey/Hennepin County Extreme Heat
Warning System: Heat Advisory
 ≥ 95°F heat index for at least 1 day, or
 ≥ 95°F heat index with minimum overnight low
temperature ≥ 75°F for at least 2 days
 Warnings issued if conditions are expected for
4 or more days and/or maximum heat index
reaches 100°F for at least 1 day.
Source: NWS, 2011
18
Recent Extreme Heat Events
 5 heat episodes in summer 2011 worthy of
issuances of warnings or advisories:
 June 6-7
 June 30-July 1
 July 16-20
 July 23
 August 1
19
Extreme Heat Event Records
July 19, 2011:
All-time heat index record for the Twin Cities. The
air temperature reported at worst hour was 95°F and
was paired with the 82°F dew point temperature
 heat index of 119°F
Record state dew point
temperature of 88°F
with 93°F air temp
 heat index of 130°F
20
Historical Minnesota EHE
Red denotes dewpoint driven
1883, 1894, 1901,
1910, 1917, 1921,
1931, 1933, 1934,
1936, 1937, 1947,
1948, 1949, 1955,
1957, 1959, 1964,
1976, 1977, 1983,
1988, 1995,1999,
2001, 2005, 2006,
2007, 2010
21
EHE and Climate Changes
 In Minnesota more EHE are led by high
dew points, and dew points may be rising
 Relief from EHE comes from overnight
low temperatures, and overnight low
temperatures are rising
 Minnesota is at risk of more EHE
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in
Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
23
Urban Heat Islands (UHI)
 Definition: Elevated
temperatures in urban
and suburban areas
relative to outlying
rural surroundings
 Causes:
 Reduced vegetation
 Dark heat-absorbing
surfaces
 Reflective surfaces
Effect is proportional to the size of the
city – but all cities, large and small,
have them
On average, a city with 1M people can
have a 2-6°F UHI
On clear, calm nights, this can be as
high as 20+°F
24
Urban Heat Islands
 Results in higher daytime temperatures and reduced
nighttime cooling (pavement releases heat at night) –
year round effect
 Consequences
 Economic cost of cooling buildings because of UHI in summer
 Lack of bitterly low temps in
winter
 Increased severe weather
 Precipitation changes ~30% increase in
precipitation downwind
 Production of air pollutants
(ground-level ozone)
 Worsen heat waves in the
urban areas
 Overall effect urban ecosystems
Source: EPA, 2008
Atlanta: It’s hotter in the city!
Image from NASA
26
Mitigating Urban Heat Islands
 Green roofs:
 Vegetative layer grown
on a rooftop
 Reduces temperatures
on roof surface through
shade and evapotranspiration
 Cool roofs/pavements:
Target Center Roof in Minneapolis
 Highly reflective materials
 Can remain 50-60°F cooler than traditional materials
during peak summer heat
 Permeable pavements:
 Moisture within the pavement structure evaporates as the
surface heats, thus drawing heat out of the pavement,
similar to evaporative cooling from vegetated land cover
27
Mitigating Urban Heat Islands
 Adding trees and vegetation
Thermal image of
New York City
Images from NASA
Vegetation in
New York City
28
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in
Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
29
EHE and Human Health
Extreme heat events can cause:
 Heat tetany (hyperventilation)
 Heat rash
 Heat cramps
 Heat exhaustion
 Heat edema (swelling)
 Heat syncope (fainting)
 Heat/sun stroke
 Death
30
Deaths from EHE
 From 1979 to 2003, more
people in America died
from extreme heat than
from floods, hurricanes,
lightning, tornadoes, and
earthquakes combined
 The 1995 Chicago heat wave
caused more than 600 heatrelated deaths over 5 days
 France, summer of 2003: 14,802 excess deaths
The 2010 Moscow heat wave caused more than
11,000 excess deaths
(Hurricane Katrina: 1,833 confirmed deaths, World Trade
Center: 2,726 deaths)
31
Populations At Risk to EHE
 Everyone
 Elderly persons 65 years and older
 Especially who live alone
 Children
 Persons with pre-existing
disease conditions
 Persons taking certain
medications that hinder thermoregulation or cause dehydration
32
EHE Deaths by Age Group
Source: Adcock et al, 2000 – CDC MMWR
33
Risk Factors





Lack of air conditioners in homes
Low socioeconomic status
Living in urban areas: urban heat island effect
Living in topmost floor
Living in nursing homes /
being bedridden
 Living alone / Lack of social
or family ties
 Prolonged exposure to sun
 Drinking alcohol
34
Minnesota’s Urban Areas
35
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in
Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the
relationship between climate change/temp trends
and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of
EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual
strategies
36
Public Health Response to EHE
Six key steps for responding to extreme heat events:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Develop a heat response plan
Predict the extreme heat event
Assess risk and determine activation of the response plan
Activate the response plan and notify the public
Implement the response plan
Evaluate the response plan
Heat Response Plan
A heat response plan should be developed before an
extreme heat event.
Heat response plan may be added as annex to local all-hazard plan.
Response Plan Critical Elements:
 Identification of a lead agency responsible for the response plan
 Defined criteria for activating and deactivating the plan
 Defined roles and activities of agencies and organization involved
with the plan
 A communications plan for communicating heat-related
information to partners and the public before, during and after an
extreme heat event
 Identification of high-risk and vulnerable persons
 Strategies for preventing morbidity and mortality from extreme
heat
 Evaluation of the response plan
Identification of high-risk and
vulnerable persons
Map populations at risk to assist
development of strategies for
targeted outreach in heat
response plan.
See MDH Climate Change
website for statewide maps of
vulnerable populations and data
sources for risk factors.
 http://www.health.state.mn.us/div
s/climatechange/index.html
39
Strategies for preventing
morbidity and mortality
 Promote pre-summer awareness education &
ongoing communication with the public
 Dissemination information & plan with local
partners (e.g., local Red Cross chapter, social
service organizations, etc.)
 Activate a heat line
 Designate community ‘cooling centers’
 Suspend utility shutoffs and provide
transportation and financial assistance
 And more!
40
Strategies for Individuals
 Stay Hydrated!
 Drink plenty of fluids
 Avoid alcoholic beverages
 Avoid drinks that are high in sugar
 Stay Cool!
 Stay indoors, in air-conditioned places
 Fans are not effective in high 90s°F
 Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose
fitting clothing
 If you must be outside:
 Schedule outdoor activities carefully
 Take time to adjust to the heat
 Pace yourself
41
Strategies for Individuals
 Check on persons at
more risk to heat:
 Do not leave children
or pets in cars
 Check on elderly
neighbors
 Stay informed!
 Listed to the local news
for daily weather
forecast
 Get health and safety
info from local public
health department
42
Summary
 Minnesota’s climate has become warmer and
more humid
 Minnesota may experience more frequent and/or
intense EHE
 Minnesota may experience higher morbidity and
mortality due to EHE
 Certain populations are more vulnerable to EHE
 Public health practitioners should be aware of
where those populations are located and know
how to mitigate the risks to EHE
43
Resources
 Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Climate
& Health Program
 http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/in
dex.html
 MN State Climatology Office
 http://climate.umn.edu/
 National Weather Service – Twin Cities
 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/
 Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC)
Climate & Health Program
 http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/
44
MDH Extreme Heat Toolkit
•
•
•
•
Introduction to extreme heat events
• Why care?
• Minnesota is warming
• Defining extreme heat events
Extreme Heat Events and Public Health
• Health issues caused by extreme heat
• Characteristics that negatively affect health
outcomes from extreme heat
Preparing Minnesota for Extreme Heat Events
• Key steps for responding to extreme heat events
• Developing a heat response plan
• Additional strategies to prevent heat-related
morbidity and mortality
• Mitigation/adaptation to extreme heat
• Training and resources for extreme heat
Appendices:
• Draft language for heat response plan/excessive
heat annex
• A tip sheet for individuals
• Data sources for characteristics that increase the
risk of heat-related illnesses
• Extreme heat mapping: using GIS to identify
populations at risk & resources
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by cooperative
agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention
Special thanks to the following people for their
contributions to the creation of this training module:
Pam Blixt, Minneapolis Health & Family Support
Geri Maki, MDH
Myrlah Olson, MDH
Dr. Mark Seeley, University of Minnesota
Don Sheldrew, MDH
Dr. Peter Snyder, University of Minnesota
Dr. Tracy Twine, University of Minnesota
46
Thank You
Questions?
Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:
651-201-4893
health.climatechange@state.mn.us
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
October 10, 2012
47
References
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(NWS, 2010b) Service area map for the six National Weather Service stations serving Minnesota and Western Wisconsin,
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Photo Credits
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Slide 5: Microsoft Clipart
Slide 14: Microsoft Clipart
Slide 19: Summer by Juxxo, 2006 on Deviantart.com
Slide 24: Arizona State Department of Agriculture (provided by Peter Synder)
Slide 25: Page 14 (EPA, 2008)
Slide 26: Image courtesy NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
(1997). Available online:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GreenRoof/Images/atlanta_thermal.jpg
Slide 27: Image source - Pam Blixt, City of Minneapolis, Department of Health and Family Support
Slide 30: Microsoft Clipart
Slide 31: AFP/Getty Images (provided by Peter Synder)
Slide 32: Image from the University of Virginia Institute on Aging. Available online:
http://www.virginia.edu/insideuva/2005/02/aging.html
Slide 34: Microsoft Clipart
Slide 41: Microsoft Clipart
Slide 42: Microsoft Clipart