WMO_Sep 10.ppt
US Institutional Investors: Asset Allocation Outlook
美國機構投資人：資產配置展望
摩根富林明資產管理
台灣區負責人
高桂卿
Dec 10, 2010
WMO_Sep 10.ppt
US Institutional Investors: Market Outlook
美國機構投資人：資產配置展望
1

Anticipate a rising rate environment (72% expect increasing yields over the next 12
months)預期上調的利率環境(72%的機構投資人預期未來12個月的殖利率將上揚)

Have positive expectations for equity returns (60% expect an increase over one year,
building to 70% over a five-year horizon)對股票報酬持正面看法(60%的機構投資人預期
未來一年會有上漲，預期五年期間會上漲的投資人則達70%)

Believe the outlook across most alternatives would improve in the ensuing 12 months,
with the most positive outlook for private equity相信在未來12個月期間多數的另類投資
展望將有所進展，對私募股權(private equity)的部份持最樂觀的看法

See the greatest opportunities over the intermediate term in real estate and hedge
funds以中期來看，房地產和避險基金的投資具有最佳機會

View Asia/Pacific as the geographic region of greatest opportunity亞洲 /太平洋地區被
視為具有絕佳的投資機會
WMO_Sep 10.ppt
Institutional Investors Asset Allocation: Past, Present, Future
機構投資人資產配置：過去、現在及未來
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Objectives and Challenges in Asset Allocation Decisions
資產配置決策的目標與挑戰
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WMO_Sep 10.ppt
Investment Outlook for Alternatives: Next 12 months
另類投資的展望：未來的12個月
4
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Alternative Opportunities: Next 3 to 5 Years
另類投資的機會：未來的3年至5年
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WMO_Sep 10.ppt
Institutional Interest in Alternatives
機構投資人對另類資產的偏好
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WMO_Sep 10.ppt
GMAG Strategic Views
全球多重資產團隊(GMAG)策略觀點



Balance sheets likely to be deleveraged over next 3-5 years 資產負債表列未來3到5年可能存在去杠杆化的趨勢
–
Households家計單位
–
Governments政府部門
Fiscal solvency: outlook for risk assets depends on which outcome: 財政償付能力：風險性資產的未來展望將
取決於以下結果
–
Growth – debt burden reduced by strong growth經濟成長 - 強勁經濟成長降低債務負擔
–
Austerity – debt burden reduced by fiscal retrenchment政府緊縮政策 –緊縮財政降低債務負擔
–
Inflation – debt burden inflated away通貨膨漲 –通貨膨漲造成負債減少
–
Restructuring – haircuts 債務重整 –債務折讓
–
Repudiation – default消減債務–違約
–
UK focusing on option 2; US exploring option 3; peripheral Europe may get to option 4英國專注在方案2,美國在探
詢方案3,泛歐可能要尋求方案4
Expect sub-trend economic growth仍預期走向低於長期平均的經濟成長
–
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Cycles likely to be shorter and shallower景氣迴圈變短且幅度變小

Investors likely to require higher risk premia投資人願意接受較高的風險溢酬

2009/10 upturn a bear market bounce rather than a new bull market2009/10為熊市反彈而非進入新一期牛市
WMO_Sep 10.ppt
Asset allocation – Overweight stocks vs. bonds
資產配置–相對於債券加碼股票部位



Asset allocation – no change in stocks vs. bonds資產配置–我們對股債看法不變
–
no strategy changes during the week本周未改變操作策略
–
as mentioned, looking for opportunities to add to Japan (but not to S/B)尋找加碼日本的機會(非策略性加減碼)
–
still “riding” the post QE announcement washout 順勢操作QE宣佈後的波動市場
Bonds – Preference for credit over govt bonds債券市場–相對於政府債我們偏好信用市場
–
broadly speaking, global macro data improving大致上全球經濟資料有轉好的趨勢
–
concerned that developments in Europe accelerating more quickly than expected對歐債問題的演變比預期來
得快感到憂心
–
banks and financials still "the weakest link“銀行與金融業仍是最弱的一環
–
see GMAG weekly for updated views on inflation in China請參閱本周GMAG提出對中國通膨的最新看法
Equities – Preference for US, UK, Emerging Markets and Hong Kong股票市場 –偏好美國、英國、新興市場
與香港
–
Valuations against history are attractive rather than compelling就價值面來看，相對過去而言，具有吸引力但
還不足讓人信服
–
Overweight: US, UK, Emerging Markets and Hong Kong加碼 :美國、英國、新興市場與香港
–
Underweight: Europe ex UK and Australia減碼 :除英國之外的歐洲與澳洲
*Note: the GMAG positions are those in a typical multi-asset portfolio (within GMAG) with a full opportunity set. Positions as at 26 November 2010
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WMO_Sep 10.ppt
JP Morgan Asset Management: A global financial leader
JP Morgan Asset Management:全球金融的領導者
Investment experience and insight that few other
firms can match投資經驗及卓越眼光領先群雄

Well-managed financial institution overseeing
portfolios across the entire investment continuum,
from public to private markets管理嚴謹的金融機構自
公開至私人市場皆能全方位監管投資組合配置

Ability to offer a broad range of core and
alternative strategies具備提供廣泛的核心投資與另類
投資之專業能力

Investment professionals operating in
every major world market於全球各主要市場設立專業
投資作業團隊

Leadership during economic and
financial system crisis在經濟和金融危機時期扮演關鍵
的領導角色
$1.3tn in AUM for J. P. Morgan Asset
Management*1.3兆美元的管理資產規模
$billion as of September 30, 2010
* Based on the AUM for the Asset Management division of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which includes J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Private Client Services and Private Bank. Data as of September 30, 2010
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