The World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO)and Disaster
Risk Reduction
Mnikeli Ndabambi
Senior Manager: Forecasting
South African Weather Service,
Co-Chair: WMO Public Weather Services
Member of the National Disaster Management
Advisory Forum.
Disaster Management conference, Indaba
Midrand, Gauteng, 10 July 2008
Email: mnikeli.ndabambi@weathersa.co.za
Website: www.weathersa.co.za
“Global Climate Change and its
impact is possibly the greatest
environmental challenge facing the
world this Century “
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Distribution of natural disasters
1975-2001
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WMO: 80% of natural
hazards are weather
related.
Natural hazards and disasters
•Natural hazards become natural disasters
when people’s lives and livelihoods are
destroyed.
•Human and material losses caused by
natural disasters are a major obstacle to
sustainable development.
•By issuing accurate forecasts and warnings
in a form that is readily understood and by
educating people how to prepare against such
hazards, before they become disasters, lives
and property can be protected.
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction
Activities
•They are integrated and coordinated
with other international, regional and
national organizations.
•WMO coordinates the efforts of NMHSs
(countries) to mitigate human and
property losses, through improved
forecast services and early warnings, as
well as risk assessments, and by raising
public awareness.
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction
Activities, continue
•Emphasis is on disaster risk reduction:
one dollar invested in disaster
preparedness can prevent seven dollars’
worth of disaster-related economic
losses—a considerable return on
investment.
•WMO’s objective is to reduce by 50 per
cent, by 2019, the associated 10-year
average fatality of the period 1994-2003
for weather-, climate- and water-related
natural disasters.
Public Weather Service Program
(PWSP) in support of Disaster Risk
Reduction
•The Commission for Basic Systems
(CBS) approved the World Weather
Information Service (WWIS) and Severe
Weather Information Centre (SWIC) to
become operational components of the
Public Weather Services Programme
(PWSP).
•These WMO websites were officially
launched on 23 March 2005.
PWSP in support of Disaster Risk
Reduction, continue
•In support of the Hyogo
Framework which was adopted by
168 Governments in January 2005,
•a survey was developed and
conducted on WMO Members in
2006 with specific objectives:-
Survey objectives ,
1. To compile information on severe weather
warning systems operated by Members
with a view to publishing a handy
reference on such system;
2. To assess the vulnerability of various
Members to weather-related disasters with
a view to developing workshops to address
the gaps and weaknesses identified, and
3. To assess the PWS needs of National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services
with a focus on identifying opportunities to
improve products and services, in
particular, on severe weather warning
services.
Survey results
•Survey results identified rain as the hazard of
most concern.
• 40% of the responses cited “forecasting
accuracy” as the primary challenge,
• WMO recommended enhancing the
predictability of rain (as defined in this survey)
as the most effective area to focus on to
reduce the vulnerability of Member countries.
WMO recommendations following
survey results
•Improve on the warning of short-term
severe weather phenomena, especially
rainstorms, nowcasting (short lead time)
as a decision-support tool.
•Workshops and capacity building on
severe weather (emphasis on
nowcasting- SAWS radar and Lightning
Detection Networks are handy for
nowcast).
WMO recommendations following
survey results, continue
•The success of a warning is to change
people’s behaviour hence education is
the key issue.
•Workshops and capacity building on
reaching out to decision-makers as well
as the public to help them understand
the meaning of warnings and enhance
their ability to translate these into action
was considered.(Receive, in time,
correct interpretation, appropriated
action)…..
Severe Weather Forecasting
Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
• WMO organised a series of subregional demonstration projects:
–To improve severe weather
forecast services in countries
where sophisticated forecast
systems not currently used
(mostly developing countries)
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• Principal focus on heavy rain and
strong winds
SWFDP goals
• Main goals:
– To improve technical ability of weather
services
– To improve lead-time of warnings
– To improve the communication between
global, regional and national meteorological
centers (NMCs)-countries.
– To improve interaction of NMCs with
disaster management authorities before and
during severe weather events.
– To identify gaps for improvement.
• First sub-regional project in Southeast Africa, from
Nov 2006 to Nov 2007- (hosted by South African
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Weather Service)
Project key factors- (Learn trough
doing)
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• Low cost.
• High impact.
• Principal focus on heavy rain and strong
winds
• Usage of existing technology and
forecasting processes by forecasters.
• Cascading process of product
dissemination.
• Demonstrate results within a short
period.
• Continuous feedback on products
and processes.
Cascading process
•
Global centre send products to (Regional Specialised
Meteorological Centre) RSMC-Pretoria
• RSMC prepares guidance forecasts for next 5 days and
disseminates daily to 5 NMCs
• NMCs use guidance forecast in preparing warnings when
appropriate to disaster management authorities
UKMO
ECMWF
US
NWS
NMC
NMC
NMC
NMC
NMC
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RSMC
RSMC
Improvements in delivering
weather services through media
Zimbabwe demonstrated news paper clips with
Positive reports on usefulness of the forecast during
Tropical Cyclone FAVIO:-
Example
of
SWFDP
products
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Example of SWFDP RSMC Pretoria
web site
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SWFDP success areas
Both Civil protection authorities and NMCs
expressed improvements in terms of:• The timelines of severe weather
information.
• The relevance of the severe weather
information for disaster management.
• The significance of the information.
• The credibility of the information.
• The interaction between the Meteorological
Services Department and Civil Protection
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Departments
SWFDP success areas, continue
• Relationship and forecast perception by
media.
• The project is now part of SADC structure,
Meteorological Association of Southern
Africa(MASA), in the role out operational
phase. (SAWS Secretariat of MASA).
• Highly supported by the Executive Council,
which is the decision making committee of
WMO.
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SWFDP success areas continue
• WMO Public Weather Service Program
is investigating training needs to support
the role out, including Disaster
Prevention and Mitigation aspects.
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• South Africa as the country will now be
part of the operational phase (SAWS,
DPLG, UNOCHA, relief agencies and
other emergency authorities or role
players.(It has to be an integrated
operation)
Warnings distributed through hoax
emails .
• 07 October 2007
– Forecasters’ analysis, expected isolated
severe thunderstorm from towards the
evening of the 8th, the day after.
– Print media journalist interviewed the
forecaster telephonically, PM of 7th October.
– Newspaper issued on the 8th with the
distorted interview content (tornado at 5 PM
today, etc).
– Between 8-9 AM 8th October, telephones
flooded the forecasting offices.
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Warnings distributed through hoax
emails continued---.
• 08 October 2007
– It was discovered that there is hoax email
from the member of the public, that
interpreted the news paper warning content
(also added spices, hurricane, tornado
approaching Gauteng etc).
– Forecast office issued press statement
clarifying the warning (it was too late).
– Internet jammed, telephones jammed….
– Total chaos at its best (Companies
releasing employees).
– Every car was on the street.
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Lessons learned by SAWS .
• Governments departments,
companies and other organisations
need to be engaged further,
awareness campaigns need to be
extended.
• Enhance media education (+ve
approach.
• A need to know that the South
African Weather Service is the sole
provider of weather warnings, by
law.
Areas of improvement
 Weather, Climate and Water-sensitive
decisions are made by millions of people each
day..
Hence there is a need->
to bridge the gap between providers and users
of weather, climate and water information as
one of the focus area.
[Media can be viewed both as users and
providers (receive and disseminate)]
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Prominent areas of weather and
climate
 There is a need for a greater understanding of weather
and climate including the nature of inherent variability
and methods of coping with the projected impacts of
climate change.
 There is more to gain from looking at climate and
weather, not only as a hazards, but also as a
“resources”.
 DRR structures should know, assess in quantitative
terms and properly manage weather and climate
resources for sustainable development.
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It is clear that a fundamental change is required in
the way weather and climate are viewed.
Short-range Forecasting
Long-range Forecasting
NWP
3-Month
Season
Month
Forecasting Period
14
Days
7 Days
Outlook
Guidance
2 Days
Advisories
Warnings
0–2
Hours
Detail Warnings
Systems
Observations
NWP
Ensembles
GCM & Ensembles
-Satellite
-Regional
-Medium range
-Ensembles
-Ensembles
-Statistical Models
-Radar
-Mesoscale
-Ensembles
-MOS
-MOS
GCM Ensembles
-Lightning
-Ensembles
-ECMWF
-Weather Data
-UK model
-MOS
Forecast
Uncertainty
Research
Programmes
Seamless Integrated Weather Forecasting System
Example of severe weather system
in South Africa
Tornado, school
at
Dullstroom,01
Aug2006
Floods, Glentana, S coast
Philistown, De Aar
01 Aug 2006
Cut off low pressure system
01 August 2006
THANK YOU!!!
Philipstown, De Aar, August 2006
Oops! The rain is pouring
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