Beyond greenhouse gases – The importance of direct climate impacts associated with bioenergy expansion Matei Georgescu, Assistant Professor, School of School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning Senior Sustainability Scientist, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University Outline 1. US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2. Future work: System sustainability and resilience 3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil Direct Impacts (on hydro-climate) of substituting annual with perennial bioenergy crops WRF Domain Corn Belt Perennial bioenergy crops Perennial and Annual bioenergy crops: Observed Phenological differences Miscanthus GLAI (m2 m-2) 8 Species: p<0.0001 DOY: p<0.0001 Species*DOY: p<0.0001 B 6 4 2 0 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 maize May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 Date X-intercepts represent the dates of crop emergence and completion of senescence for each species in each year [F. G. Dohlman and S. P. Long Plant Phys. 150, 2104 (2009)]. Perennial - Annual biophysical differences APR: Vegetation Fraction Difference APR: LAI Difference APR: Albedo Difference Near-surface temp. impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops Perennials minus Annuals PerennialsNoAlb minus Annuals Perennials-2m minus Annuals Local cooling of 1-2ºC (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS). Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops Perennials-2m minus Annuals Perennials-2m minus Annuals • Regionally averaged across land undergoing conversion, greatest temp. differences occur during shoulder seasons (when phenological contrasts are largest) • Temp differences are owing to higher rates of ET for the deeper-rooted perennials (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS) Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to Perennial bioenergy crops WRF simulated total monthly precipitation difference [mm] (Perennials-2m minus Annuals) for (left) July and (right) October. (Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS) Outline 1. Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2. Future work: System sustainability and Resilience 3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops US: 123 million ha Global: 1107 million ha Source: Cai et al. 2011, Environ. Sci. Technol. PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops •Trans-disciplinary approach integrating: economics/water/climate/energy/policy Outline 1. Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops 2. Future work: System sustainability and Resilience 3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil Sugar Cane parameterization de Cerqueira Leite et al., 2009 Harvest [August] (Georgescu et al. In Prep) Sugar Cane seasonal impacts on 2m temps SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER (Georgescu et al. In Prep) Multi-member ensemble approach (Georgescu et al. In Prep) Take home message • Maize to switchgrass/miscanthus • • e.g. sorghum • e.g. jatropha Sugarcane consequences of biofuel expansion require an integrated trans-disciplinary assessment - social/economic valuation integrated with direct hydro-climatic consequences and biogeochemical impacts. Thank You!